How can one improve at Recognizing Patterns?

fon said:
98% of all academic research and properly conducted trader research backs up my words

So keep on believing you religiius fanatics
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I don't care about the 98%. Its the 2% you're concerned about and there's research papers that support them too. I know because I've posted links in the past to those research papers that proves it doesn't work and to those research papers that proves it does work.

Yet, I don't need research papers to explain to me that most traders are not profitable regardless to what method they use while the few are profitable. :sneaky:

I rather just spend my time becoming more familiar with the 2% although there's been several brokers customer accounts revealing that its more like 7% that are profitable. Therefore, I would say based on real accounts...its more like 93% are not profitable and we should be more curious about the 7%...better use of our time don't you think ?

Seriously, what is it that the 7% know and the 93% does not know ?

Maybe the 7% are just lucky...something to think about.
 
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Chubbly said:
Now manage the trades as you see fit, do whatever it takes but NEVER EVER look at the charts!! only look at the total P/L
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fon said:
Patterns only exist after the fact, so do you really believe they have value? Hindsight bias is the mark of an undeveloped mind.

Surivorship bias had all TA'r in its grasp.

Fooled by randomness is how we like to discribe these sad folks.
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Now we're up to two TA doesn't work idiots


Appears fon is surf

Chubbly - what the hell's your claim to fame


RN
 
Redneck said:
Now we're up to two TA doesn't work idiots


Appears fon is surf

Chubbly - what the hell's your claim to fame


RN
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If you had bothered to read my posts I clearly stated many, many times you do not need TA to succeed.
Day trading is not impossible but highly improbable to succeed in. What % of people on ET are successful day traders making consistent money day in day out, year after year after year? Most likely 3-7% would be a safe guess don't you think?

Instead of just being an ass please present your arguments or explanations for why it works?
On Monday get an account on something like http://www.spreecast.com/ and you will educate us on how to day trade and we can watch you in action live. I am going to safely assume you won't do it, but you will sit there being a keyboard hero and call people who have a different view than yours an "idiot"


Most retail traders lose, they just lose.......
I saw that was a popular quote on this site. I thought I could help a few people stop losing by presenting a different viewpoint.

This site is full of hostility, most likely people don't want to hear the truth. People who use TA yet can't get a 50% win rate. I can see why they are bitter. Price can only go up or down. Why can people not win at least 50% of the time. Nobody is sitting back and thinking hard about this.

Only here on ET are people who say 2% a month is not enough but they sit in their cubicle trading 1 lots for years hoping their boss doesn't catch them.

I think my time on ET is coming to an end soon. You have succeeded in chasing me away
 
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Patterns need to be mathematized so that subjectiveness is taken out of the equation , if you cant measure it you cant define therefore you cannot test it or trade it . If its discretionary it is guessing , binary approach is required for it needs to be black or white , yes/no . Maybe cannot be part of it ... Trading has to be statistical/ quantitative to develop robust systems , anything else is gambling .... End of story , close the thread ;-)


For myself I need a pattern that stands up better than coin toss odds on success rate , anything less than 50% is straight in bin and in reality I need a minimum of 66% , and yes criteria can be assigned to patterns to make them binary ...
 
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I'm a strong supporter of price action patterns (no indicators) but I don't believe it can be used profitably all by itself. Also, you got to be careful with whom you're debating with about the usefulness of TA because you may actually be on the same page with the person you're debating with.

Without the following...it doesn't matter what you're using that's TA related or not related to TA:

1) Risk Management
2) Discipline
3) Proper use of margin/leverage
4) Proper trading instrument
5) Proper market conditions
6) Position Size Management
7) Trade Experience
8) Complete Trading Plan

Yeah, some of the above have more importance to a trader in comparison to another trader. More importantly, on any given trading day...some of the above will be the deciding key factor if there's profits or losses by the end of the trading session.

Most traders are losers...that's a fact and it really doesn't matter if its 70%, 80% or 90%. Yet, they aren't losing because they use TA, FA, DOM reading or blackbox. Heck, most of the algorithms in the markets are losers if it wasn't for the special privileges the exchanges gives them.

Heck, even some of ET's most well known bashers of TA are actually using it themselves but they say it has no impact in their decision making process. Yet, the fact remains...they use it.

Other bashers at this forum and elsewhere have made the mistake of debating with other traders about if someone is profitable or not...usually its a trader they believe in and its someone they consider to be a career trader. They have gone as far as to provide proof of profitability of those traders that are profitable. Oddly, if you dig into the background of those that they provided proof about...you discover those profitable traders do use TA as a variable in their decision making process but its just not the most important variable.

Also, the markets is setup so that not everybody can be profitable...its setup so that only the few will be profitable. That's ok. In addition, if you understand the basics of behavior finance you'll know that our minds isn't wired to be successful in trading...we have to sort'uv recondition ourselves to be able to consistently profit in markets today...more so than markets that made trading popular for retail traders back in the 90s.

Simply, looking into ET itself...there's no way that most here using TA are profitable. In contrast, there's a small percentage using TA that are profitable and I guarantee you they have all the reasons above lined up. Just as important, those that don't use TA and those that truly do not open a chart for any reasons whatsoever to help them make a decision...

Most of them are not profitable too.

P.S. Stop worrying about the losers because if you concern yourself too much with it...you just may get sucked down that rabbit hole too regardless if you use a lot of TA or just a tiny little bit of TA or no TA at all.
 
wrbtrader said:
I'm a strong supporter of price action patterns (no indicators) but I don't believe it can be used profitably all by itself.
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Hi Wrbtrader,

What general advice would you prescribe so that one can trade futures for a living? In particular, what are the various concrete steps that could be taken for someone who is going to do this mainly by himself?

Thanks.
 
fon said:
Do you believe that there are quantifiable patterns that tell what is going to happen next at a greater than 66% accuracy as the earlier poster vegas states?
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I believe strongly in trader psychology and behavior finance while using price action (no indicators). Thus, if you need answers about someone you don't know or I don't know or want to discuss quantifiable trading systems, automation, blackbox, algorithms or anything along that nature...

I'm the wrong person to be asking questions about such. :D

Therefore, if your issue or concern is really about quantifiable TA...you should specifically spend your time debating with those specific traders down in the system design threads instead of debating with traders that do not use TA in that manner. :sneaky:

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?forums/automated-trading.48/

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?forums/programming.65/

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?forums/strategy-development.34/

Seriously, if your thing truly is about quantifiable TA...those threads above should be where you should be debating and I don't need to be a rocket scientist to know it makes sense to do such instead of posting in threads where traders are most likely not using quantifiable TA.

Anyways, if brisvegas states he needs a minimum of 66%...then that's what he needs to feel comfortable in putting on a trade. Yet, most veteran traders know that just because you have a 66% accuracy (win rate)...doesn't imply you'll be profitable if your 34% losing trades are much larger than your 66% winners. A few journals here at ET proves such and I've seen such in real money trading competitions. That's why those other variables I mention come into play as key components of successful trading. Seriously, pretend you have a 66% win rate but your 34% losers are 3x larger than your winners...do the math.

My point is this, if brisvegas has a 66% win rate on a price pattern...he may not be using charts at all or he obviously isn't going to disclose to you any other key variables with his patterns that he has automated. By the way, I will assume he's an automated trader considering he doesn't believe in discretionary traders can be successful.

Therefore, kind'uv stupid to debate with someone like that when you have no information about what exactly he's doing and how he's doing it. :D
 
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ubo said:
Hi Wrbtrader,

What general advice would you prescribe so that one can trade futures for a living? In particular, what are the various concrete steps that could be taken for someone who is going to do this mainly by himself?

Thanks.
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I've discussed such in this thread although I would add that if you can't figure out the trading thing on your own...find someone that has and trade with them in person if they're willing to allow you to invade their privacy (home or office).

Seriously, whenever I hear someone say "trade for a living"...that's someone talking about a career and most people I know that make career decisions...they go to college if needed for such a career, they relocate if needed and so on like what people typically do in other professions.

Yet, if trading is just a hobby or academic pursuit...all the above is not important.
 
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