Hard to believe that few knew that Meta would be up 20%. On some options like the 470 there was a 30x return. This was like Netflix. Some options were 25X.
How can no one know that Meta would be up 20%
- Thread starter Fast Eddie
- Start date
Nothing but market manipulation crime, IMO. SEC sleeping as always.
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How much money did you lose?
We are traders, not fortune tellers.
We don't have nuclear powered crystal balls.
So our trade plan should factor in such unknowns, uncertainties, possibilities
As I said in another thread it is just simple percentages. Doesnt mater what the market cap is. If a bullish 20% news event happens to a $5Trillion market cap stock in the future, it will add $1T market cap very quickly.. reverse is also true of course, could drop by that or more very quickly as well.
It is pretty insane that we will sooner rather than later enter an era where some stocks are rising and falling by $1T in market cap in a single day.
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20% stock moves on news have been happening regularly to tech stocks since I started watching the stock market since 1999 and i guess forever before that. They are less common in the larger cap tech stocks vs smaller cap ones, but you should never rule them out even for the big caps.
When i started trading the advice was, 5% gaps on news have a good chance of follow through but 20% gaps were subject to reversing at least somewhat before the close. But these days even 20% gaps don't seem to close quickly!
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Someone, a stock market analyst, please do an analysis of the highest daily upside moves of US listed stocks with the biggest MktCaps for the last x years, and post such a list.
Can someone compute how many sigmas this move was? Ie. how many SDs.
For smoothed HV or ATM IV (both as of yesterday, ie. before the move today), or for both.
Or someone post just the HV and/or ATM IV of META (as of yesterday), for calculating the sigma change by others.
It looks like that it was a "bigger than 3 sigma event", ie. a very seldom event...
Can someone compute how many sigmas this move was? Ie. how many SDs.
For smoothed HV or ATM IV (both as of yesterday, ie. before the move today), or for both.
Or someone post just the HV and/or ATM IV of META (as of yesterday), for calculating the sigma change by others.
It looks like that it was a "bigger than 3 sigma event", ie. a very seldom event...
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The probablity will be approximately what the options were implying before the news event.
A very low value but non zero.
It is just every now and then those low probability moves actually happen.
"1% of the time it happens one 100% of the time"
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When Zuke got yelled at by the Congress and, as a result, apologized to the attendees, I knew this would happen. It just had to.
Now compare a humble CEO like Zuke to an attention seeking CEO like Musk. WTF??
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