How can anyone predict the crude prices?

Trevor Phillips · Dec 21, 2015

Unless you're in that industry - you probably can't.

ETcallhome · Dec 21, 2015

If you knew what was going to happen it would be easy to predict the future.

marketsurfer · Dec 21, 2015

Even deeply entrenched pro's lose money-- we were in a copper fund that owned the mines and the entire supply chain--- and was managed by the top copper trader in the world--- guess what, the fund lost a fortune during the time we were invested---

Turveyd · Dec 21, 2015

Youd of thought oil prices would only go up as a trader learn not to think only react, too many crazy variables, its not that the supply demand has improved merely the outlook, millions of gallons of oil going for a third of there value a year ago, cause traders have dropped the price.

It should be a purely what it costs plus what the market will pay extra, not linked to a stupid nothing value, crazy world.

Chubbly · Dec 21, 2015

Seems simple to me. Choose if it is going up or down. You will be right 50% of time

Chubbly · Dec 21, 2015

Andy Hall who has been labeled the "God Trader" is down 500 million this year on oil.....

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/06/god-trader-andy-halls-fund-loses-500m.html

And this was back in July-Aug. Andy thinks the market is wrong and he is right. Guess what Andy the price is never "wrong" the price is what people are buying/selling it at

I am up this year on oil btw...

luken · Dec 21, 2015

move to a oil producing country

Cswim63 · Dec 21, 2015

felixbocharov said:
This is completely weird to me and I can't understand the logic of the process. It's a completely political process, and politicians are changing their minds every day.

It's not completely political. I suggest a little Taleb. Fooled by Randomness would be a good place to start. Mind you, I don't necessarily agree with him.

Cswim63 · Dec 21, 2015

Cswim63 said:
It's not completely political. I suggest a little Taleb. Fooled by Randomness would be a good place to start. Mind you, I don't necessarily agree with him.

All the information in the world will not help you reverse a trend.

d08 · Dec 22, 2015

felixbocharov said:
There are millions of predictions and predictors out there.

There are but how many of them are consistently right? I assumed that when you mentioned political factors, you were talking very long term investing (years).