This is completely weird to me and I can't understand the logic of the process. It's a completely political process, and politicians are changing their minds every day.
How can anyone predict the crude prices?
- Thread starter felixbocharov
- Start date
exact same way you predict currency and interest rates
Basically, it's impossible if you are a regular trader.
Most commodities are priced on supply and demand. Not sure what is so magical about that. Yes, there are dispersions around the fundamentals but ultimately supply and demand determine price.
What time period of the day you typically trading Crude Oil futures in U.S. time (est, pst, cst) ?
I can always guess how many balls there are in those jars where you win prizes!*
My Simple BB method, works well enough on D1 from the look of it to be profitable.
Remember it's not about predicting, it's about finding a price which has good odds of making good money and lower odds of losing a smaller amount of money.
At the moment, going into a sideways range US Oil, 34-37 with downward pressure so prefer short, long 34.50 area, short 37.00 area, try to risk $1 to make $2 or $3.
* It's a guess, it's never right and never 42
My Simple BB method, works well enough on D1 from the look of it to be profitable.
Remember it's not about predicting, it's about finding a price which has good odds of making good money and lower odds of losing a smaller amount of money.
At the moment, going into a sideways range US Oil, 34-37 with downward pressure so prefer short, long 34.50 area, short 37.00 area, try to risk $1 to make $2 or $3.
* It's a guess, it's never right and never 42
Long Term, I don't try predict, it just a matter of waiting for me for price to get to areas that seem like they will eventually go, whether that takes a few months or years, it is a matter of just rolling contracts over and stay with position. I add on deep retracements and hedge them, will do credit spreads when system has signals to do so, but why predict based on time as there is too many "what if's", very high losing percentages on futures sides but eventually find the extremes. Now day trading is about the same but different, more of random numbers and reversion to the mean, very short term durations with very low losing percentages. My Trading Plan is a whole lot smarter than me and what emotions say. Why prices goes up or down, who knows, one year we running out of crude oil and now there is a glut, who knows and who cares, trade your Trading Plan.
how can anyone predict stock prices? forex prices? etc?
by monitoring the markets and seeing patterns