How bad or good for each day of week? Black Monday or black anyday?

A

aqtrader

Hi, I just did a statistics analysis of the market performance for each day of a week, Mon(1), to Fri(5). I saw it makes sense saying "black Monday". People makes BS if saying black other days (Tue to Fri).

Both the worst and the best days happened on Mondays. Monday shows the most number of bad days (28) followed by Thursday (19). Tue is the day showing the most number of good days (28) probably a pattern of bouncing from big Monday sell-off.

Here is the data.

For the past 52 years in DOW index, The top best days:
date % day-of-week
20081013 11.0803 1
20081028 10.8779 2
19871021 10.1488 3
20090323 6.8350 1
20081113 6.6716 4
20081121 6.5428 5
20020724 6.3481 3
19871020 5.8818 2
20090310 5.7956 2
20020729 5.4147 1

The top ten worst days:
date % day-of-week
19871019 -22.6102 1
19871026 -8.0394 1
20081015 -7.8733 3
20081201 -7.7013 1
20081009 -7.3331 4
19971027 -7.1838 1
20010917 -7.1293 1
20080929 -6.9790 1
19891013 -6.9055 5
19880108 -6.8512 5

All the 2789 weeks in 52 years of DOW:
Day num worst best median average up-day-ratio
Mon 2615 -22.61 11.080 -0.02 -0.03 48.68%
Tue 2789 -5.11 10.878 0.03 0.06 51.09%
Wed 2782 -7.87 10.149 0.06 0.06 53.41%
Thu 2751 -7.33 6.672 0.03 0.02 51.51%
Fri 2735 -6.91 6.543 0.07 0.04 53.56%

Bad days distribution (number of days DOW down at least 3%)
Mon 28
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 19
Fri 13

Good days distribution (number of days DOW up at least 3%)
Mon 18
Tue 28
Wed 20
Thu 22
Fri 10
 
aqtrader said:
Bad days distribution (number of days DOW down at least 3%)
Mon 28
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 19
Fri 13
More...

For many critical events and decisions the deadline is usually is set on Friday. As a rule, in most cases it is done after the market closes or even on Saturday Sunday. As the result, we have more occurrences 3% and stronger drops on Monday when investors comes to the market with shock over week ends.

In addition, during the long-term recessions, many traders prefer do not hold the position opened over week-ends. Therefore you may see many sell offs before the market close on Friday. Again, during bears markets bad news coming not just during week-days but on Saturday and Sunday as well. However, on Saturday and Sunday, investors cannot react on these news. Furthermore strong decline on Monday during bear markets could be also explained as reaction on negative news over the past three days (starting from Friday's afternoon).

The rest of the statistics looks average to me.
 
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