No US recession. CNBC and Bloomberg hard at work at crashing the US stockmarket. I wonder why? Who is paying the fat salaries and perks of the hacks on CNBC and Bloomberg? Why do they push one narrative then, switch the narrative the opposite way one, two or three months after? Defies logic until you ask, who are the advertisers on CNBC?
How are you feeling about the economy?
- Thread starter UsualName
- Start date
I'm sorry but this is not accurate. We had 9 quarters of robust GDP growth, once we got out from under the Obama anchor. That is actually a record. It is to be expected that there would be some slowdown due to nothing more sinister than the business cycle.
The EU has experienced a far worse slowdown and they have not been the target of Trump's tariffs. Ditto Latin America.
China is coming off the sugar rush of the Shanghai Accord, which was a massive stimulus injection two years ago. Trump is actually doing them a favor in the long run. They have built their economy on IP theft, unfair trade barriers and manipulated currency. The longer that goes on, the more painful the correction. It's up to them how long this trade war lasts. They clearly have decided to wait out the election, and Trump should really put the hurt on them in the interim.
TheLastRefuge@TheLastRefuge2 20h20 hours agoGerman GDP shrinks in second Quarter. Brexit looms for 10/31/19. Post Brexit U.S. and U.K. Trade Deal likely. Now would be perfect time to hit EU w/ 25% auto tariff.
Chris Buskirk@thechrisbuskirk 2h2 hours ago
See below. Remember this every time you call DC “The Swamp”: it’s actually so much worse. The people there despise middle America & they spend their careers working against it. But: the leviathan is also old & tired.https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1161283267661897730…
Matt StollerVerified account@matthewstoller
I've had multiple conversations with fancy old trade lawyers in rich D.C. suburbs who tell them their whole careers were dedicated to moving wealth from the U.S. to the global South. They are proud of it. They think getting rid of the U.S. middle class was a good trade.
Show this thread
7:29 AM - 15 Aug 2019
See below. Remember this every time you call DC “The Swamp”: it’s actually so much worse. The people there despise middle America & they spend their careers working against it. But: the leviathan is also old & tired.https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1161283267661897730…
Matt StollerVerified account@matthewstoller
I've had multiple conversations with fancy old trade lawyers in rich D.C. suburbs who tell them their whole careers were dedicated to moving wealth from the U.S. to the global South. They are proud of it. They think getting rid of the U.S. middle class was a good trade.
Show this thread
7:29 AM - 15 Aug 2019
Here’s where I’m going to sound a little kooky:
The business cycle is a self fulfilling prophecy - a myth to explain poor policy and lack of regulation in modern economies.
A downturn is NOT inevitable, despite popular belief there does not have to be a boom bust economy, we can have real sustainable growth for great lengths of time with little to no downturns.
I'm cautious that it could happen. The warning signs are there:
1. A 2 year / 10 year inverted yield curve has predicted every recession for the past 50 years, and it's only sent a false signal once over that time span.
2. Much of Europe has seen an economic slowdown for awhile, but thing seem to be getting worse. Germany may very well go into recession by the end of the year.
3. Prior to this year, the longest we have ever gone between recessions was 10 years. Our last recession ended in June of 2009, so we're now in the longest span ever between recessions.
The U.S. has seemingly weathered the storm much better than much of the rest of the world. 2018 was probably the best year economically that we've had in over a decade. Our economic numbers still look pretty decent so far this year. I could see us going into a bear market in the next 12 months, but I doubt that our economy as a whole will go into a recession that fast. You never know though, it could happen if the trade war continues to escalate. It could also really hurt us if the Fed dig their heels in on interest rates.
1. A 2 year / 10 year inverted yield curve has predicted every recession for the past 50 years, and it's only sent a false signal once over that time span.
2. Much of Europe has seen an economic slowdown for awhile, but thing seem to be getting worse. Germany may very well go into recession by the end of the year.
3. Prior to this year, the longest we have ever gone between recessions was 10 years. Our last recession ended in June of 2009, so we're now in the longest span ever between recessions.
The U.S. has seemingly weathered the storm much better than much of the rest of the world. 2018 was probably the best year economically that we've had in over a decade. Our economic numbers still look pretty decent so far this year. I could see us going into a bear market in the next 12 months, but I doubt that our economy as a whole will go into a recession that fast. You never know though, it could happen if the trade war continues to escalate. It could also really hurt us if the Fed dig their heels in on interest rates.
the US economy is doing fairly well alas being very close to its peak. but unfortunately, it doesn't feel that way and it's the sentiment that is low. uncertainty, a constant state of contradictory communications and self afflicted wounds has mad everyone regardless of their ideology to be just simply uncomfortable and unsatisfied. it feels like we are always one tweet away from complete chaos and it's very tiring and draining. we need stability.
The average time for a recession to materialize after the inverse signal is 22 months.
I agree to an extent, but the fact remains, they keep records of these things and nine quarters was the record. So it was a very long expansion from an historical perspective. Economists can debate cause and effect but the time series show that eventually, all expansions end. The Trump trade war isn't helping at the moment, but what if it leads companies to invest heavily in plant and equipment here? Then it's a huge win.
Perma bears have been talking about a recession for how many years now? CNBC just last month was saying recession then, the market went up higher. Now, they are crying recession again! Even a broken clock is correct 2 times in any given day. I would be more scared when these CNBC hacks proclaim that the US stockmarket will continue to rise another 5 years and people should all be buying stocks. When the CNBC hacks say that, that is the time to be very afraid and bailout! Guessing when the recession will start is flat out nuts!