How are you better than other traders?

[Pkay]

Time is the friend (edge) for the longs in an index future. There is no other rule. Go long right now in an index future. Roll each month. Do it for the past 10 years in a backtest. Calculate the result.

Voila'!

In every way we are, we don't have to change. We just don't have the guts to stay our course.

This is an interesting approach and has some merits. I have a couple of questions if you don't mind:

1. Is this method using futures or options?

2. What do you mean by roll each month?

Thanks.

 

[Pkay]

Let's see, the 2000 crash lasted 2269 days after the S&P500 went down nearly 50%.
The 2007 crash lasted 1702 days and the drawdown was 57%.

All that trouble to make about 9 or 10% a year on average (with an index fund).

This is not what I call trading, because the idea is to make money regardless of market direction.

But anyway, each trader has his own unique style, you are a position trader obviously (really not my cup of tea), if you are happy with these returns with their long, long drawdowns so be it. Also note that the next drawdown/crash could last 10, 15 or 20 years, who knows...?
Thanks for the songs by the way.

Good points, if your timing is off it may be quite a while before you see any real profits.

 

[d08]

This is an interesting approach and has some merits. I have a couple of questions if you don't mind:

1. Is this method using futures or options?

2. What do you mean by roll each month?

Thanks.

Futures need to be rolled. You cannot buy an ES contract for Dec 2050.

 

[Tradex]

Do you mind expanding a bit on historical charts and what you are looking for when studying them? Thanks.

I use the free charting software from FXCM, it's called Marketscope.

I can go back in time (up to November 28, 2001) and look at, say, a 5 min chart of the GBP/USD on January 2, 2002, for instance.
Then I can test any trading idea on that chart and the following 5-min charts, from January 2, 2002 to September 2020.

After a few years, you will start noticing some profitable chart patterns not described in any book. And then you test them again with other currency pairs to see if they are still profitable, the type of drawdown they usually generate and so on.

In other words you are simply testing different what-if scenarios: if the market does this, then this, then that, where does it usually go next: up or down? And how far does it go before reversing or hitting the stop?

This type of research can take a lifetime, that goes without saying.

 

[Tradex]

My profitable long entry on a day trade may cross with the profitable exit of a long term trader.

In zero-sum games it does not matter, your day trade AND the winning long term trade (from the other trader) are profitable ONLY because a loser somewhere is picking up the tab.

 

[Heydrrich]

In zero-sum games it does not matter, your day trade AND the winning long term trade (from the other trader) are profitable ONLY because a loser somewhere is picking up the tab.

Except if the short term losing trade is part of a long term winning trade that gets scaled in.

 

[trader1974]

My advantage is that I have lost many times.

 

[ms33]

I have super sperm.

 

[amorcitto]

The edge that no other trader has, is a true understanding of what actually drives the markets. It won`t be found in the created algorithms or probability studies, but in the real mathematical mechanisms.
The markets are human consciousness in a math form, mirrored by the universe. Once you decode the language it speaks, you can talk to it and find exact reversal points.
The chart NG BT 0,0,-1 is Nept. Geocentric giving you 5 points to buy in( daily bars)
The chart (gray background) is the same formula but we now use Nept. Heliocentric. It gives us 3 different entry points.
Every day in the market`s history is tested. When the mathematical argument is true, the program assigns a vertical colored line to that day.
While one can still make money from the markets using a system, I spent many years trying to determine these mechanisms, and I have found even more accurate ones recently, but won`t have them to show until I can find a new programmer.