How are the wallstreetbets guys so successful?

[Same Lazy Element]

what better educator is there than failure?

Somebody else’s failure, of course.

A lot of our perceptions about the path to success are shaped by selection bias. It’s especially true in the modern social media world where failing happens behind closed doors, while victories are widely publicized

 

[zghorner]

Somebody else’s failure, of course.

A lot of our perceptions about the path to success are shaped by selection bias. It’s especially true in the modern social media world where failing happens behind closed doors, while victories are widely publicized

I lost $20k Friday essentially failing due to not taking the same amount of profit the day before and letting my puts ride...it hurts so much worse than when I read of Livermore or anyone else going bankrupt.

I love reading and agree that books can save people years of trial and error but they still pale in comparison to personal loss.

 

[TickSeeker]

NOV 22, 2019
"Top Hedge Fund Bridgewater Bets $1.5 Billion on Market Drop by March"

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...s-big-on-market-drop-by-march-report-15178391

Then "someone" goes to China (could be an another country too but this time because of trade war) and puts something into circulation (very similar to "normal" influenza) and commands the main stream media start to hype things.

Then the march comes and S&P 500 tanks -30% and could go of course much lower...

Mission accomplished.

" Cui Tiankai: the US military brought the coronavirus to China"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/art...-ambassador-over-beijing-coronavirus-comments

Yes of course he's lying but who do we believe. One thing happens here and another there. There is a lot of dots. When connected it's starting to look a picture

 

[ironchef]

The problem is that failing is not free. You buy a lottery ticket enough times and you will go bankrupt. True both in markets (options are expensive) and in life (higher payoff has a lower probability of happening and time is the most expensive asset out there).

That’s why, btw, most “mega-rich people” come from already rich or at least “not poor”. They can try, fail and still be okay.

Unless you use OPM, like venture investing or hedge fund trading options. The principals hunt for Black Swans or unicorns with OPM, and probably won't go bankrupt themselves.

 

[yc47ib]

I lost $20k Friday essentially failing due to not taking the same amount of profit the day before and letting my puts ride...it hurts so much worse than when I read of Livermore or anyone else going bankrupt.

I love reading and agree that books can save people years of trial and error but they still pale in comparison to personal loss.

Greed?

 

[zghorner]

Greed?

A pig got slaughtered, what can I say.

 

[Same Lazy Element]

NOV 22, 2019
"Top Hedge Fund Bridgewater Bets $1.5 Billion on Market Drop by March"

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...s-big-on-market-drop-by-march-report-15178391

They were just hedging their long equity positions - it’s a 150 billion dollar fund and paying 1 billion for hedges is totally normal.

 

[TickSeeker]

They were just hedging their long equity positions - it’s a 150 billion dollar fund and paying 1 billion for hedges is totally normal.

So what ?

It's still extremely huge profits for them.

We all know the price will recover when the time goes.

 

[Same Lazy Element]

So what ?

It's still extremely huge profits for them.

Doh. You do know how hedging works, right? If you are making money on your hedges, you are taking losses elsewhere in your business. In fact, "Bridgewater Pure Alpha was down 13% this month through Thursday following a drop of 8% in the first two months of the year" as per BBG.

We all know the price will recover when the time goes.

Do we? After the crash in the 80s, Nikkei did not reach new highs for decades.

 

[tradermarkets]

it's because the economy of japan is no growth and pop is actually in decline since the 90's growth is what drive the US indices and any market..what is growth..rising sales and expanding markets. well the GDP is contracting
Globalization of american companies is what is driving the the US markets. all the companies listed in the SP 500 50% of earnings is from foreign countries ie China, Europe and Asia,south america.
Globlaziation is behind the growth and profits of the US stock market. as the companies have done well in foreign markets and profits.
before the 1980's many countries had foreign ownership rules and anti-globalization meaning they don't allow foreign companeis to dominate their industries own too much of their company for good reason..it's become imperialism. the foreign company in your country still answers to it's home HQ or country .