How About a Depression that Lasts for 20 Years?

[thriftybob]

Quote from Covertibility:

Ya can tell the ones who missed the rally.

Look again. Your stock prices went up, but the dollars they are valued in went down even more, and you will pay 30 or 40% tax on that devaluation. How easily you have been fooled.

As for the depression, or long recession, my guess is it last till the baby boomers are mostly dead, which will be in another 30 years. It should be pretty obvious that the government will never be able to provide the benefits we paid in for from social security or medicare. They are both ponzi schemes that eventually will collapse from the weight of having to provide the actual benefits. Sure, maybe they might give them to us, but in dollars worth 1/2 or 1/3 what was expected. As with all ponzi schemes, only the administrators and the first to collect (who are now all dead), make out on the deal. The rest, and that's us, are left holding the bag.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from thriftybob:

"... As for the depression, or long recession, my guess is it last till the baby boomers are mostly dead, which will be in another 30 years. It should be pretty obvious that the government will never be able to provide the benefits we paid in for from social security or medicare. They are both ponzi schemes that eventually will collapse from the weight of having to provide the actual benefits. Sure, maybe they will gie them to us, but in dollars worth 1/2 or 1/3 what was expected.

One reasonable outcome.

Another is that the financial system collapses, bankrupting nearly everybody. The Boomers would then receive a small government stipend while being "encouraged" to die as soon as possible.

This way, the Gen X and Ys won't end up being saddled with the debts of prior generations. However, that also means that they will NEVER be allowed to achieve substantial success. America will be like a gigantic Cuba or Venezuela with the elite Progressives and Libtards calling the shots... in EVERY aspect of our lives, as best they possibly can.

 

[thriftybob]

Quote from Scataphagos:

One reasonable outcome.

Another is that the financial system collapses, bankrupting nearly everybody. The Boomers would then receive a small government stipend while being "encouraged" to die as soon as possible.

This way, the Gen X and Ys won't end up being saddled with the debts of prior generations. However, that also means that they will NEVER be allowed to achieve substantial success. America will be like a gigantic Cuba or Venezuela with the elite Progressives and Libtards calling the shots... in EVERY aspect of our lives, as best they possibly can.

Yes, that could be accomplished with a 90% devaluation, and at the same time make America cost competitive with everyone but China. Maybe that's why our government and Fed don't even flinch with a 30% devaluation already having been done. It would be a good way to do it while pretending not to collapse.

We could devalue till we were blue in the face, but there is no way we can ever compete with China. Just the employer portion of social security tax, not even including the medicare portion, let alone any pay at all, dwarfs the total pay and taxes a company has to pay for a Chinese worker.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from thriftybob:

"... We could devalue till we were blue in the face, but there is no way we can ever compete with China. Just the employer portion of social security tax, not even including the medicare portion, let alone any pay at all, dwarfs the total pay and taxes a company has to pay for a Chinese worker.

Not many seem to grasp this "elephant in the room" concept.

Our standard of living will be forced to adjust downward to compensate for this fact.

 

[hayman]

Quote from Scataphagos:

By the time Obama, the Progressives, and the Libtards get finished... NOBODY WILL HAVE ANYTHING EXCEPT THE GOVERNMENT...

We will feel like it's a PERMANENT DEPRESSION..

And one day when your kids are old enough to understand, they will resent (maybe even HATE) those who voted Obama into power...

Yeah, unfortunately, this is bound to happen. Of course, we also need to lay some major blame with Bush, who doubled the national debt, got us involved in 2 unwinnable wars, fed our jobs to cheap labor overseas, and just drove our economy into a major ditch. Obama isn't helping a bit, and I really think that he must have received some tutelage from G.W.

 

[EdgeHunter]

Quote from hayman:

Yeah, unfortunately, this is bound to happen. Of course, we also need to lay some major blame with Bush, who doubled the national debt, got us involved in 2 unwinnable wars, fed our jobs to cheap labor overseas, and just drove our economy into a major ditch. Obama isn't helping a bit, and I really think that he must have received some tutelage from G.W.

I agree with what you say here except for the 2 unwinnable wars... They are not suppose to be winnable... Unlimited profits for the Military-Industrial Complex of Companies with their perennial lobbyists and their congressional and senatorial bought and paid for contacts who they put a lot of money into their election campaigns...

The Wars for them have been very very successful... and will continue to always be so...

 

[S2007S]

Quote from fkbsuhites:

The fact is no one knows how this will turn out.

But I can tell you the worst is over. So far I've never seen the malls empty which means the average guy on the street isn't too worried.

Also V-bottoms do not retrace much.

Is the worst over??

I guess its the jammed pack malls and 70% rally from the bottom in march thats giving you that oh so fresh feeling that everything is back to normal.....I forgot that people in our economy consume no matter what the economy is doing because all this world is taught to do is consume things you basically do not need.


Meanwhile we have bubble ben bernanke on the next bubble mission setting rates at 0% and printing worthless dollars to prop up everything to make it feel like everything is going in the right direction. Any future predicted growth is all an illusion, its all the worthless dollars they print to stimulate the economy and make it look like there is a turn around.....gdp would be -5-15% if they didnt prop it up like they have been.

 

[S2007S]

Quote from Trexticle:

Another possibility.

This would have been the better option if they would have just left everything alone, the banks failing, etc. We would have been through it a lot quicker.

agree, but do you really think they would have let that happen, I think what they are doing right now is a lot worse than doing what they should have done which was leaving everything alone.

 

[Trexticle]

Our markets are never going to recover, ever. Take a good hard look at this chart.

Can anyone look at this chart and give me one good reason why I should put one dime into this market. This market looks like a perfect example of a high risk situation. Commodities are going higher. Real assets are going to trump paper for years to come.

 

[S2007S]

Shows animation of job losses over the last 2 years.



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