How a machine learning model closed a hidden FX arbitrage gap

[ETJ]

How a machine learning model closed a hidden FX arbitrage gap
Mauro Cesa - Risk.net
In 2022, Yoshihiro Tawada, head of FX-flow quant modelling at MUFG Securities EMEA, noticed an anomaly in the market for Turkish lira/yen options. During periods of market turbulence, the mid volatility of options - which theoretically should lie between the bid and ask levels - breached those boundaries, contradicting the assumptions behind models used to price exotics and leaving them wide open to arbitrage strategies.
/jlne.ws/3Oi20Sn

 

[2rosy]

was this ever possible in the real world? I assume lira/yen options are illiquid and if streamed allow for look backs

 

[Kevin Schmit]

was this ever possible in the real world?

Probably. Arb opportunities abound in dealer (OTC) markets like FX, especially in "times of turbulence." If you take more than an isolated handful of them, your counter-parties will stop dealing with you.They'll cut you off.

 

[M.W.]

There were tons of inconsistencies and broker arb opportunities in single name otc vol in 2008. But as you said take advantage of them a few times and one will be shunned.

Probably. Arb opportunities abound in dealer (OTC) markets like FX, especially in "times of turbulence." If you take more than an isolated handful of them, your counter-parties will stop dealing with you.They'll cut you off.