Housing Threatened by Defaults in Sub-Prime Mortgage Market

[bgp]

right s2007s, commercial r.e. is last to go.

bgp

 

[indytrader08]

If your doing so well why would you respond so strongly to some posts that are written by sheep. I am not a psychologist but it sounds to me like you are trying to convince yourself everything will be fine. Weird post if you ask me.

Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

DOOM AND GLOOM……It is so funny to read “Speculation” on Real Estate from Elite Traders. It is all most as funny as reading about their “Trading”. I left the trading as a living about three years ago to enter into the world of Land Speculation/Real Estate Development. Although I do trade my personal account, well more like position trading for weeks if not months, I am finding the world of “Real Estate” to be far more interesting and rewarding.

The biggest problem many do not understand is that when they read the “Talking” heads about “defaults” they are talking about the 9 to 5ers, Lets call them “SHEEP” as we will use “Market” terminology. We are talking about Johnny Joe and Mary Idiot Real Estate Sales person who helps Johnny “ I have hardly any income” but I want to purchase a house 4x my net worth so I can be like Mr. Day Trader across the street. Mary Idiot goes and finds a mortgage broker to help “push” the paper work through. Wolla, big PiP’n Johnny “ I have no money” is now in his new home.

The median home price, or should you say nation average is some where between $230g to $260g. Of course there are plenty of other areas that run higher, but we are taking the median home price for 2006. These are what the numbers are based on.

So, you have Johnny “ I have no money” driving his BMW, his wife shopping at Prada because she just watched “DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES” and like the way the women dressed. They come home to that home that they can’t afford. Even at $260g they are doomed.

Then take the Joey “I can become a Land Investor” with no money down, getting into Investment Property between $200g and say even $400g, thinking the can flip. Surprise,
He is holding two mortgages and has taxes to pay, “Value” of the property has been pushed up by a hoard of speculators and out of the price range of the general population.


I do not deal with such crap. I deal with homes from $500g to $4.7 million. Commercial projects that run into the triple digits of the 9 zero range. And I picked the proper region as in the Texas south region, where, property, land and commercial investments are pushing for 14%-25% growth for the next few years.

So, while the doom and gloom is broadcast, the “Pundits” cry “Crash” and the Mary Idiot Real Estate agents, who are a dime a dozen, much like the trading world during a bull market, hustle for nickels and dimes, the money is flowing fine in the proper areas and High Net Worth Clients are coming by the carloads.

Oh yea, I did make a trade, bought Oil futures Jans/febs and march months …legged in to average 51.90 and was out about 57.20 on the average. So, I still find time to play the game will I’m creating my own monopoly board…..but what……the Housing Bust is upon us.

 

[TM_Direct]

can't agree more....heard the same shit from stock gurus in from 2000 on .." the shorts will have to cover" " You won't see 50% gains every year but 10-15% is likely"...yadee yadee ya!!!


You can try and convince yourself all you want.....Hey, I have two homes and only on very modest mortgage...But as i drive into my development and see for sale signs all over with some now on the market for over a year, i know that my assets are being affected...Im not selling, but my leverage to go and pick up a nice value has just been depleted....hold onto your hats folks....this is gonna be like Hurricane Katrina II

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from indytrader08:

If your doing so well why would you respond so strongly to some posts that are written by sheep. I am not a psychologist but it sounds to me like you are trying to convince yourself everything will be fine. Weird post if you ask me.

From the looks of IYR's move this year (up 20 of the last 22 days) there's no need for a "tag day" to bail out commercial holders....

 

[Jayford]

Quote from TM_Direct:

But as i drive into my development and see for sale signs all over with some now on the market for over a year, i know that my assets are being affected...Im not selling, but my leverage to go and pick up a nice value has just been depleted....hold onto your hats folks....this is gonna be like Hurricane Katrina II

Same thing here. I live in a beach town in S Texas (South Padre Island). There are for sale signs EVERYWHERE. Each street is only a few hundred yards long, and they all have at least a few signs. Its mind boggling. Prices here are way high for Texas, and everyone seems to be bailing at the same time. Very little is moving.

Jay

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from Jayford:

Same thing here. I live in a beach town in S Texas (South Padre Island). There are for sale signs EVERYWHERE. Each street is only a few hundred yards long, and they all have at least a few signs. Its mind boggling. Prices here are way high for Texas, and everyone seems to be bailing at the same time. Very little is moving.

Jay

this may not cause a burst like people seem to think..(I am with you guys in that type of thinking)....the BID has to be hit and hit hard...staying on the offer doesnt necessarly mean a price decrease..just a long mo-F**K time to move your paper....:eek:

 

[TM_Direct]

Quote from ElCubano:

this may not cause a burst like people seem to think..(I am with you guys in that type of thinking)....the BID has to be hit and hit hard...staying on the offer doesn't necessarily mean a price decrease..just a long mo-F**K time to move your paper....:eek:

But think of it like your account with a margin call...you can put a limit order out there to satisfy your call for only so long before the house puts all your shares out there as a market order....same as the ARMs and Balloon payments coming due...

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from TM_Direct:

But think of it like your account with a margin call...you can put a limit order out there to satisfy your call for only so long before the house puts all your shares out there as a market order....same as the ARMs and Balloon payments coming due...

in most cases which is speculation people will jst walk away from their deposit, others that used fancy financing to bite off more than they can chew will get burned and some of the pain will be felt by developers...Hey im with ya in your way of thinking ..but a BUBBLE?? as in a crash?? maybe?

 

[TM_Direct]

the sad thing is i have money on the sideline waiting to cash in on this once the bottom hits.....I feel like a Vulture....but i also feel bad because many of my friends and acquaintances are getting smacked down as we speak....IMO..its going to be worse then the stock bubble.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from TM_Direct:

the sad thing is i have money on the sideline waiting to cash in on this once the bottom hits.....I feel like a Vulture....but i also feel bad because many of my friends and acquaintances are getting smacked down as we speak....IMO..its going to be worse then the stock bubble.

There is no one more credible than Robert Shiller, and he has referred to it as the "by far the biggest asset bubble in history."

The Economist magazine, also long on credibility, did a wonderful expose on it that shows how it could (and will likely) lead to massive global liquidity contraction (as the U.S. cools quickly).

But then there's Goldilock Larry Kudlow, who disagrees with both.


You decide who is more credible - Kudlow or Shiller.