Housing Soft Landing

There is an enormous amount of home buying going on constantly!!!!

New family formations every day....weddings...those newly weds will buy a house where they can afford it.....they may move if priced out of over priced area...

it is amazing so many people use Santa Monica, Mid Town NY and Miami Beach as the average example of home prices, LOL..

Use common sense...

SteveD
 
Quote from Smart Money:

Never happen. The Fed would step in and lower rates again long before that.

SM
More...

Can Fed force banks to lower mortgage rate?

What is correlation between short term rate and mortgage rate?
 
nothing much... its unclear to me which dataset he's been using, how he has filtered it, what sort of inflation adjustments he's made etc etc... looking at the last 20-30 years (who cares about the shiller-calculated home prices of 1890??) his figures seem to exceed NAHB and OFHEO stats, which is weird... NAHB's in particular, since hype is their business :p
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0385514344/
 
maybe they want to create the appearance that this is business as usual? smooth is good, bubble is bad

i've captured plenty of inflation :) but not as a homeowner :(
 
Quote from 2cents:

nothing much... its unclear to me which dataset he's been using, how he has filtered it, what sort of inflation adjustments he's made etc etc... looking at the last 20-30 years (who cares about the shiller-calculated home prices of 1890??) his figures seem to exceed NAHB and OFHEO stats, which is weird... NAHB's in particular, since hype is their business :p
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0385514344/
More...
edit: to be fair, hype is more NAR's business... but still...
 
Quote from Avid_Consumer:

maybe they want to create the appearance that this is business as usual? smooth is good, bubble is bad

i've captured plenty of inflation :) but not as a homeowner :(
More...
nope, look at their data, it ain't smooth... but not all bubbles have to pop, in fact most of the time they just deflate 'gently' and everybody forgets about them after a few years have passed... doesn't mean tons of people who've made bad investments in such or such city won't get screwed in the process, but thats just regular wealth transfer...
 
i posted the longer history just to illustrate the scale of recent price changes relative to the last 100. i don't know anything about his indexing technique, or the short term history from the NAR or NAHB. assuming they're all reasonably accurate, it's a very long long way from historical avgs
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top