Housing schmousing...

[aPismoClam]

Quote from Thunderdog:

But is it not the cheap money that has caused the surge in housing prices, thereby rendering your argument as somewhat circular? ...

And what do you mean by hedge? Locking in the rate in one way or another?

you're attempting to hedge a price decline, not an interest rate. yes, cheap money has fueled demand.

 

[cakulev]

Quote from Thunderdog:


And what do you mean by hedge? Locking in the rate in one way or another?

Shorting builders? Short bonds? Buy gold?

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from cakulev:

Shorting builders? Short bonds? Buy gold?

The complexities of home ownership, eh?

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from dougcs:

His opinion is it will take a recession or very high interest rates to see prices decline significantly.

Your post is interesting, but I must take exception to your above captioned reference to a realtor's comments. I think it was Warren Buffet who once said that asking a broker if you should buy stocks is like asking a barber if you need a haircut. I don't see why the same principle would not apply to realtors.

 

[cakulev]

Quote from Thunderdog:

The complexities of home ownership, eh?

There should be hedging chapter in every Flipping/Buying Home for idiots book.

 

[dougcs]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Your post is interesting, but I must take exception to your above captioned reference to a realtor's comments. I think it was Warren Buffet who once said that asking a broker if you should buy stocks is like asking a barber if you need a haircut. I don't see why the same principle would not apply to realtors.

Good point, but this is a guy I've known for 30+ years and he had no reason to misrepresent the situation, though his opinion was surely influenced by his job.

And, look at the price trends in north Jersey over the past 50 years, pretty much up.

DS

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from cakulev:

How long will you stay there?

For quite a while.

 

[Ivanovich]

Appreciate all the advice, folks. I think what I'm going to do is simply wait a year. The Fed is supposedly nearing the end of it's tightening, which means I shouldn't lose too much by waiting a few more months in the term of cheap money. Secondly, I have property in Russia here which I can rent out to pay for any rent in the US, and at the same time continue to save for a rather immense down payment on a place in NJ.

 

[dividend]

Quote from trader99:

http://biz.yahoo.com/special/arm05_article1.html

"Enticed by juicy commissions from all those deals, others are jumping into the mortgage biz. Among them are John Switzer, an 18-year-old high school grad from New Bern, N.C., who put off college so he could start work as a mortgage rep for Houston-based Franklin Bank Corp. (NasdaqNM:FBTX - News). "Right now, mortgages are a little more interesting" than college studies, he says."

Kids not going to college to do RE. Where have we heard this phenom? Kids not going to college to do daytrading. Kids not going to college or dropping out of college to join dot-bombs.

Hmmm...

lol, ive heard that some car sales reps in my area have two cell phones so to flip houses in their "spare time"... remember dentists trading in between patients? hheeh

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Appreciate all the advice, folks. I think what I'm going to do is simply wait a year. The Fed is supposedly nearing the end of it's tightening, which means I shouldn't lose too much by waiting a few more months in the term of cheap money. Secondly, I have property in Russia here which I can rent out to pay for any rent in the US, and at the same time continue to save for a rather immense down payment on a place in NJ.

Oh, come on, don't be such a spoil sport. What about that shorting builders/shorting bonds/buying gold hedge play that you referred to on page 2 of this thread? Maybe you could get some former employees of Banker's Trust to write a special derivative for you like they did for Procter & Gamble.