HOUSING #'s
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
Quote from blast19:
Hey bubela, care to spin the numbers for us in detail? How were the inventories 5.9% rise good? How was the YoY existing home sales good?
Thanks in advance.
The indices have long ago priced in lower home prices.
If you want to speculate based on RE then stay sector specific.
At the end of the day stocks care about two things. Earnings and interest rates.
The average SPX stock is no more sensitive to RE fluctuations than any other commodity price. Certainly one may choose to extrapolate lower home prices negatively effecting a myriad of industries via diminished consumerism. Conversely though, if traders push prices below value in that anticipation then you wind up with a crowded short trade. Crowds equal stampedes. Those who get trampled are usually those closest to the door......
To what degree exactly did stocks price in lower homes? Higher inventory? Tighter lending standards? When did that happen?
It didn't appear that stocks had priced in lower home prices and all the problems that subprimes will cause. Stocks only rose post-spin when they made it sound like the subprime problem won't affect the rest of the economy. Now spin that...you're like a magician.
Also, the RE boom had nothing to do with effecting the general markets the last 3-5 years? Golly gee.
Quote from blast19:
To what degree exactly did stocks price in lower homes? Higher inventory? Tighter lending standards? When did that happen?
It didn't appear that stocks had priced in lower home prices and all the problems that subprimes will cause. Stocks only rose post-spin when they made it sound like the subprime problem won't affect the rest of the economy. Now spin that...you're like a magician.
Also, the RE boom had nothing to do with effecting the general markets the last 3-5 years? Golly gee.
Do you trade?
What happened to builders, self improvement retailers, lenders and commercial suppliers last year? New highs? Hardly.
Have you seen any gross participation to the upside by consumer cyclicals i.e. retailers and restaurants?
There's a litany of stocks trading at 12 times earnings (cheap) in anticipation of further weakness in housing. Those are issues that can pop higher on the hint of RE stabilization.
The traders who move prices saw the slowdown a year before denizens of Yahoo's news page were clued in. Those managers were covering their shorts by the time guy's like you were sellers.
The market's rallying because the world's been short since 2/27. Absent news of a depression there's only one thing markets can do when too many folks are short. Auction higher.
the real question is...
just how much is the RE problem priced in ? Obviously it is..anyone with any experience knows that.
But are we ready for how bad it COULD get ? Doubtful
Right now the subprimes are dying and the rest are flat. If things extend past subprime , which based on what I see around me, they will. Well , then theres still a lot more falling to do.
I think towards the end of the year when the unsold homes are piling up and regular joes, not subprimes, are drastically lowering their selling price because they cant afford the ARMs resetting we will see some major damage.
Just my $.02
just how much is the RE problem priced in ? Obviously it is..anyone with any experience knows that.
But are we ready for how bad it COULD get ? Doubtful
Right now the subprimes are dying and the rest are flat. If things extend past subprime , which based on what I see around me, they will. Well , then theres still a lot more falling to do.
I think towards the end of the year when the unsold homes are piling up and regular joes, not subprimes, are drastically lowering their selling price because they cant afford the ARMs resetting we will see some major damage.
Just my $.02
The media has been overblowing this co called 'housing crash' or 'housing bubble' for the pasdt 2 years. The people who actually move the market aren't as gullible.