Housing rolling along part III (But...)

T

The Kin

Real Estate is just fine. BUT some subgroups of the industry are overvalued significantly.

Prime Commercial Real Estate
Luxury Home Builders
Luxury Condo Developers
Vacant Plots of Land

All overvalued in my opinion and ready for a crash within two years. However this is offset by undervalued subgroups of RE which will explode.

Existing single family (Under 250k)
Affordable condo developers (Under 250k)
Conversions (Apartments or offices to condo)
Non-Luxury Home Builders (in robust markets)

Just my two cents. :)
 
yes houses are overpriced. Check out this report that bases how overpriced cities are on historic price data, area income, mortgage rates and population density. http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2005-08-17-housing-valuations.htm

But if you are poor you can still have home ownership in toledo for as little as 5,000 dollars.

http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/Hom...57513042E47C&snumxlid=1052191569&lnksrc=00001

or if you dream of becoming a landlord buy this 35 unit building for under 200k
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/Hom...57514A9285AC&snumxlid=1051570483&lnksrc=00001

Or if you want to be the big man in town with the mansion, you can have this magnificent nearly 19,000 square foot house for a mere 390k

http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/Hom...57515292CE7C&snumxlid=1049291679&lnksrc=00001

There are still plenty of places to buy cheap real estate. I know there is a bubble and i used to think it was going to pop any day now...but now I am starting to believe it wont pop, BUT what i do think may happen is the bubble will just stop until wages catch up and that might take 10 or 15 years. So imagine buying a home, paying on it for 15 years and its still worth the same amount. I believe places like toledo, OH and buffalo, NY will be the places that will appreciate fast. Business wont want to pay outrages sums for commercial real estate so they will start moving to those old towns. Time to buy is now for those places but time to sell if you live in California or florida. But this is just my opinion.
 
peilthetraveler


I agree. I notice you use realtor.com also try loopnet.com for commercial (rental, lodging, land, etc) they are the best resourse for commercial property........ You can still cash flow in many areas of the country on rental property, the real estate "bubble" should be assessed region by region not on a national level.


For rental property I like midwestern states.
 
Quote from The Kin:

Real Estate is just fine. BUT some subgroups of the industry are overvalued significantly.

Prime Commercial Real Estate
Luxury Home Builders
Luxury Condo Developers
Vacant Plots of Land

All overvalued in my opinion and ready for a crash within two years. However this is offset by undervalued subgroups of RE which will explode.

Existing single family (Under 250k)
Affordable condo developers (Under 250k)
Conversions (Apartments or offices to condo)
Non-Luxury Home Builders (in robust markets)

Just my two cents. :)
More...

You kill me.......

So based upon your statements, ALL of California is going to crash.

This is contrary to your statements earlier about outlying areas diving and domiciles close to city centers would remain strong.
 
Peil, that's a nice, enlightening post. What's scary is that while the housing bubble doesn't cover the US in terms of geography, it certainly does in terms of wealth. In 10 years you might be able to pick up a mansion in a bubble town that now sells for 3 million dollar for what that house in toledo goes for.


Quote from peilthetraveler:

yes houses are overpriced. Check out this report that bases how overpriced cities are on historic price data, area income, mortgage rates and population density. http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2005-08-17-housing-valuations.htm

But if you are poor you can still have home ownership in toledo for as little as 5,000 dollars.

http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/Hom...57513042E47C&snumxlid=1052191569&lnksrc=00001

or if you dream of becoming a landlord buy this 35 unit building for under 200k
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/Hom...57514A9285AC&snumxlid=1051570483&lnksrc=00001

Or if you want to be the big man in town with the mansion, you can have this magnificent nearly 19,000 square foot house for a mere 390k

http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/Hom...57515292CE7C&snumxlid=1049291679&lnksrc=00001

There are still plenty of places to buy cheap real estate. I know there is a bubble and i used to think it was going to pop any day now...but now I am starting to believe it wont pop, BUT what i do think may happen is the bubble will just stop until wages catch up and that might take 10 or 15 years. So imagine buying a home, paying on it for 15 years and its still worth the same amount. I believe places like toledo, OH and buffalo, NY will be the places that will appreciate fast. Business wont want to pay outrages sums for commercial real estate so they will start moving to those old towns. Time to buy is now for those places but time to sell if you live in California or florida. But this is just my opinion.
More...
 
Quote from crackedback:

....

So based upon your statements, ALL of California is going to crash.

...
More...

Gee I hope not since I still own property in california ......:D
 
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