Housing Rolling Along 2

[Tauvros]

February 14, 2006

The January median for new housing came in at $435,000, a record $104,500 less than in December and $22,000 less than in January 2005. The month-over-month decline represented a near-record 19.5 percent drop, the biggest since July 1997's 24 percent change.

New-home prices took the sharpest month-to-month dive ever recorded by DataQuick for the San Diego market, a loss that was not so much good news for homebuyers as it was a reflection of building-industry marketing practices.


http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20060214-9999-1b14housing.html

 

[prt_systems]

Quote from Tauvros:

February 14, 2006

The January median for new housing came in at $435,000, a record $104,500 less than in December and $22,000 less than in January 2005. The month-over-month decline represented a near-record 19.5 percent drop, the biggest since July 1997's 24 percent change.

New-home prices took the sharpest month-to-month dive ever recorded by DataQuick for the San Diego market, a loss that was not so much good news for homebuyers as it was a reflection of building-industry marketing practices.


http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20060214-9999-1b14housing.html

If you read this article you see people spinning the numbers saying things like "Dont rely on these numbers" and making up theories that account for particularly bad performances in certain regions - Like scripps ranch.....

Another indicator: An article in the LA times about Cher selling a luxury property and stating that she likes to buy, fix-up, and sell properties ..... pretty clear that we are coming off the top of a speculative bubble...

 

[Covertibility]

US home prices gained near 13 pct over year

Average U.S. home prices climbed 12.95 percent in 2005 despite rising mortgage rates in the second half of last year, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said on Wednesday.

Home values appreciated 2.86 percent during the fourth quarter from the third quarter of 2005, at an annualized rate of 11.4 percent.

 

[Chagi]

Quote from prt_systems:

If you read this article you see people spinning the numbers saying things like "Dont rely on these numbers" and making up theories that account for particularly bad performances in certain regions - Like scripps ranch.....

Another indicator: An article in the LA times about Cher selling a luxury property and stating that she likes to buy, fix-up, and sell properties ..... pretty clear that we are coming off the top of a speculative bubble...

My personal favorites are the quotes that I'm seeing from mortgage brokers and real estate agents in the local papers. Seems like whenever there are some new housing stats, there is a quote from a real estate agent (or an association of them) stating that housing is going to continue booming in Canada for the next 5-10 years.

Why the hell would you expect a real estate agent to give you an unbiased opinion of the future of the housing market? Sure, the housing market will continue to be hot and the commissions will continue to roll in. Right?

 

[balda]

HOUSING MARKET GLUTS UP

http://www.nypost.com/business/64323.htm

 

[onewaypockets]

Kinda sad actually...this sort of thing to be repeated over and over once the toxic mortgages reset. OWP

 

[killATwill]

100% financing...<b>100% financing??!!</b>

Quote from onewaypockets:

Kinda sad actually...this sort of thing to be repeated over and over once the toxic mortgages reset. OWP

 

[Chagi]

Quote from killATwill:

100% financing...<b>100% financing??!!</b>

Quote from onewaypockets:

Kinda sad actually...this sort of thing to be repeated over and over once the toxic mortgages reset. OWP

I also liked the note about the property being reno'd in 2002. So basically someone bought the property, spruced it up a little, flipped it to someone new, who likely flipped it in turn to the current owner; who obviously had wonderful ideas about flipping it to some other sucker in the future.

The reason I say that the owner was likely just speculating is the 100% interest-only financing, doesn't seem like the owner planned to rent this out for the purpose of having other people payoff the mortgage for her over 25-30 years.

 

[FireWalker]

yes. Tara saw the 20% appreciation rate, multiplied that by $200,000 and found $40K just waiting for her.

So she took her $5000 savings account and divided it by the amount of the interest only payment (after adding the "rental income" of course).

this gave her the most important number of all: the number of months before flip. (it looks to be about 6 in her case)


it's a classic strategy. she'll do fine.

 

[wareco]

"The house is in a revitalization approved area..."

Oh, so you mean the house is in the slums?

And, let's not forget about that nice 5 foot iron security gate to keep the riff raff out.