Housing Rolling Along 2

[Copernicus]

Quote from realestatetimer:

I understand.

There's a silent crash going on in many overvalued housing markets right now ... which I know for a fact because of my contacts as well ... and it is just starting.

silent for now since builders are cutting deals on individual basis that nobody hears about. officially its the free frig, maintenance, etc, but its much more if you can show them $ quickly. out of all people builders have the best knowledge of local markets, they caught few fools and sold to them at dead top and fulll price, now they are working the market and getting whatever they can, and still making out fine, since their margins are huge.

how would you feel when you go to county records and find out your neighbor paid 150k less for the same t-home?

 

[onewaypockets]

Guess Bob and Bruce were not so dumb after all...‘The Toll Brothers data is telling us that the fairy dust of rising home prices is floating away,’ Stephen Roach, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley.”

Their take? 100 million and 53 million last July alone, mostly sold with absolute perfection right at the highs. Guess their crystal ball was working pretty good...OWP

http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/09/news/fortune500/toll_brothers_stock/

 

[cornholetrading]

I found this interesting especially after the big article in Fortune about how Barrack was getting out of the US market.



$500M Colony Capital Fund Targets US Assets

Last updated: February 8, 2006 01:21pm


CENTURY CITY, CA-Colony Capital will invest $512 million in fund capital in office, industrial and multifamily properties. Richard Saltzman, New York City-based president of Colony Capital, tells GlobeSt.com that the fund, called Colony Realty Partners, will target assets “throughout the United States.”

 

[onewaypockets]

Thought this post on a message board would be good to re-post here...OWP

http://housingbubblecasualty.com/forum/index.php?topic=100.0
"I'm a Construction Superintendent for large N. California homebuilder. Word to the wise: THe $HIT is about to HIT the FAN."

"Centex just had a 150K off "12 hour sale"
Centex in Lincoln is "throwing in" a $40K swimming pool
Pulte has reduced prices in some of the hottest markets in the country
The company I work for has only sold 20 houses in the last three months- we usually sell 20 per month. Including our Bay Area operations (South Bay/East Bay)
All builders except for the custom guys (who apparently are so blinded by greed they can't see the writing on the wall) are at a dead stop in El Dorado Hills, CA."

"My concrete contractor (2nd largest residential production concrete outfit in the greater Sacrmento area) has gone from 400 slabs a month last year to 150 this year."

"Everybody's saying it: "this is looking like the late 80's"...

"Guys are trolling through my trailer/jopbsite looking for work; reminds me of the 80's..."

"Things ARE slowing dramatically.."

"You knew this wasn't going to last forever, didn't you?"

 

[realestatetimer]

Sacramento is going to be ground zero for the CA real estate crash. Home prices there have fallen by 5% in the last 6 months and inventory has risen by 90%.

Prices are going to drop by 40% when they revert to the mean.

What goes way up, comes way down. Welcome to the CA real estate roller-coaster.

Robert Campbell

 

[drsteph]

Quote from realestatetimer:

Sacramento is going to be ground zero for the CA real estate crash. Home prices there have fallen by 5% in the last 6 months and inventory has risen by 90%.

Prices are going to drop by 40% when they revert to the mean.

What goes way up, comes way down. Welcome to the CA real estate roller-coaster.

Robert Campbell

If this is the bob campbell who wrote "Timing the real estate market" you should listen to him. He knows what he is talking about.

Great book, bob.

 

[onewaypockets]

The slow reality of being a "fu@ked borrower" is setting in. Funny to look back on this thread of last summer and see posters writing about the demographics of the permanent housing "shortage". Wow, look at the glut now, wondered what happened??? OWP



http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2006/02/percentage-of-reduced-listings-per.html


Phoenix Metro:
10,693 reduced / 35,144 total inventory = 30.4%

Sacramento Metro:
3,337 reduced / 11,014 total inventory = 30.3%

Riverside County:
5,343 reduced / 18,263 total inventory = 29.3%

San Diego County:
4,716 reduced / 16,847 total inventory = 28.0%

Orange County:
2,329 reduced / 10,027 total inventory = 23.2%

Las Vegas Metro:
3,855 reduced / 16,613 total inventory = 23.2%

Los Angeles County:
6,388 reduced / 28,769 total inventory = 22.2%

Seattle Metro:
1,600 reduced / 8,642 total inventory = 18.5%

Santa Clara County:
368 reduced / 2,903 total inventory = 12.7%

 

[realestatetimer]

Down 40% before its finished. The train going out has already left the station.

Robert Campbell

 

[onewaypockets]

Quote from realestatetimer:

Sacramento is going to be ground zero for the CA real estate crash. Home prices there have fallen by 5% in the last 6 months and inventory has risen by 90%.

Prices are going to drop by 40% when they revert to the mean.

What goes way up, comes way down. Welcome to the CA real estate roller-coaster.

Robert Campbell

We may not have to wait for long...the builders want out now! This was the weekend ad. The revered POS D.H. Horton is setting some new comps for the neighborhood! Imagine how the buyers of last summer feel, after camping out for the very special privilege of buying one of these gems. ...OWP

 

[prt_systems]

Quote from realestatetimer:

Sacramento is going to be ground zero for the CA real estate crash. Home prices there have fallen by 5% in the last 6 months and inventory has risen by 90%.

Prices are going to drop by 40% when they revert to the mean.

What goes way up, comes way down. Welcome to the CA real estate roller-coaster.

Robert Campbell

Actually its not just sacramento ... even along the coasts there are reductions and reductions in process with much more inventory on the market .... Just starting along the coasts in my opinion.....