Housing Rolling Along 2

[jem]

By the way here is what I would consider a proper analysis.

There are 759 active houses on the Sarasota in the 300-400 range with 3/2.

In the last 30 days 106 have gone sold pending or back up needed. (27 are pending and 23 are back up needed.

That is a not a bad market. I would say a little heavy. But this time of year the inventory always gets heavy in anticpation of the season.


With 50 sales in the last 30 days and some of those were holidays. Would you say the sky is falling. Especially after having a record price increases the last few years.

 

[dandxg]

My wife and I are seeing housing slow down on personal terms. She is mortgage broker for a large home builder in Illinois and the amount of loans she has processed has fallen off big. They may even start to lay some people off in the morgage dept. They just laid off 30 homes sales agents for that market. I hope it picks up. She is paying our bills while I get up to speed on my day trading strategy

 

[onewaypockets]

Looks like Centex is starting to hurt. Funny, they didn't have to cut prices at this same time last year. People were standing in line fighting for the chance to buy one of these turds. Should the people that bought last year (gotta get in now before we are priced out of the market, remember?) be a little pissed off now that the builder is dropping the price? Lets see, what happened to the "housing shortage" again???...OWP



http://www.12hoursalebycentex.com/12hoursale.html
"Turn off the tube. Drop the rake. Next Saturday is your chance to buy a Centex Homes in almost any Centex Northern California neighborhood and take $40,000 to $100,000 off the price on selected homesites. New construction or one of our ready-to-move-in homes, it doesn't matter. Next Saturday's the day. 10a.m. till 10p.m. is the time. Every model will be open in each of our neighborhoods. So why not let the leaves blow into the neighbor's yard, you're gonna be moving away."

 

[rcj]

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/101960/content.asp?menu=review

Note the pdf link at the bottom which contains all of the charts.


....... rj

 

[jficquette]

I ran into a mortgage broker at the drug store couple of nights ago. This guy is the guy that I used to buy a house here in San Deigo 7 years ago. This guy works for Chase and is a big producer. He has 7 assisants working for him. I would guess he was/is making $700-800k a year.

I had't seen him in two years so it is not like we are close or anything. After I told him that I had sold my house in May 2004 he said well you got out in time because it has "shutdown" and it likely to get really bad. He was shaking his head like he really believed it.

I also noticed a house in very nice subdivison that had been for sell for about a year now has now a "For Rent" sign out front.

This house was bought by a husband wife real estate team to flip. They are trying to get $3500 a month for rent but it isn't worth more then $2000 per month.

It's not just interest rates. It is the mentallity and right now buying houses isn't cool.

Greespan should be shot. He screwed the country with his stupid monetary polices.

John

 

[kowboy]

Quote from jficquette:



..... He screwed the country with his stupid monetary polices.

John

True. But the other half of the equation on poor monetary policies is congress and the voters who allow this to continue.

 

[jficquette]

Quote from kowboy:

True. But the other half of the equation on poor monetary policies is congress and the voters who allow this to continue.

Congress doesn't set interest rates and Greenspace is not elected.

John

 

[mizer]

Quote from jficquette:



This house was bought by a husband wife real estate team to flip. They are trying to get $3500 a month for rent but it isn't worth more then $2000 per month.



Greespan should be shot. He screwed the country with his stupid monetary polices.

John [/B]

Its not Greenspans fought that greedy speculators were stepping in front of real home buyers! If they wanna play the "speculating" game then they must prepare themselves for the risk they're taking on and embrace the lost just as a trader who must except that his trade has turned against him and must exit for a lost

 

[jficquette]

Quote from rcj:

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/101960/content.asp?menu=review

Note the pdf link at the bottom which contains all of the charts.


....... rj

That article is pretty depressing. I built houses once in Atlanta Ga. I was a spec builder. I only built 8 houses in 9 months and closed them all. I relate this because through this endeavor I found out really quick that the only people who make real money in building are the Banks. I also found out how big of a part homebuilding was to the community. It is the only industry left where uneducated people can find work and make relatively good money. I guess my fear is that if the little builder gets shutdown it will cause a lot of problems in getting money to these people because it is about the only work they can do.

I also use to be a Division Controller for US Home. This was in the early, mid 80's. They use to be the biggest builder and were the only builder on the NYSE at the time. US Home had no clue what they were doing. They just built as many houses as they without regard to common sense and eventually went Bankrupt. This experience gave me insight as to how big builders work.

I would guess that the big builders of today are not that much brighter and will build until they have to dump the inventory. When a corporation decides to dump then watch out because they don't care what they get it for it. A lot of times the people involved in the liquidation process got their job because their predessor got fired for building the shit in the first place. They just want to look good in their new job and that means getting rid of inventory.

John

 

[jficquette]

Quote from mizer:

Its not Greenspans fought that greedy speculators were stepping in front of real home buyers! If they wanna play the "speculating" game then they must prepare themselves for the risk they're taking on and embrace the lost just as a trader who must except that his trade has turned against him and must exit for a lost

It's was due to Greespans actions that you could get 1% money. How would you expect people to act???

John