Housing Rolling Along 2

Back in the real world, homebuilders still on fire and those who live in apartments still post about a housing bubble.


Lennar preannounces

Lennar Corp. said Wednesday that fiscal third-quarter earnings will exceed analyst expectations and prompt a higher 2005 outlook. The company said deliveries in the fiscal third quarter will exceed 10,900 homes versus the previous target of 10,800. Additionally, Lennar said homebuilding gross margin will be more than 26%, and net new orders will increase by at least 20% from the year-ago period.

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KB Home earnings nearly double

Builder KB Home on Thursday said quarterly profit nearly doubled and the company raised its 2005 earnings forecast, helped by higher prices, increased sales and lower overhead expenses.

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10 year 4.18%
30 year mortgage 5.75%
 
All CEO,s will tell people what thay want-to hear to make money,Nothing wrong with that because thats there job, I would do the same ,Have you ever heard the saying (jobs for the boys)?
 
Quote from Dell-Boy:

I could tell you that i made $6mill last year and give you paperwork to-prove it ,(would you trust me)?
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No, but if you put it in the form of a home builder press release Convertablity will paste it in this thread and lap it up.

Everyone in Toll Bros (for just one example), all the way from Bruce Toll down to the janitor of the company is selling many millions of shares...Convert is still here pasting cheerleader announcements fed by the Wall Street machine. It's pretty much the identical story with most all of the home builders and lenders. That is, the insiders selling while at the same time issuing glowing press releases.

Oh, and the Toll stock is 30% off it's highs. Think Bruce Toll might know something after all??? (hint: companies like these show earnings growth until they miss, then its too late to get out)

unbelievable.........
 
I just have to laugh that onewaypockets still posts here. Start here: DHI.
That was the launching pad and many missed it being stuck on some housing bubble nonsense.


Low inflation and low rates as far as the eye can see. And a housing crash, lol, not gonna happen.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

I just have to laugh that onewaypockets still posts here. Start here: DHI.
That was the launching pad and many missed it being stuck on some housing bubble nonsense.


Low inflation and low rates as far as the eye can see. And a housing crash, lol, not gonna happen.
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Not sure what I "missed" exactly. If you are talking about housing stocks....simply not on my radar screen or part of my "plan". Never owned one and probably never will. I am an active trader however...each and every day.

I have personally owned 7 homes, and have owned property continuously since 1984 in my 20's. I still own my very first house as a rental. My family has two more rentals that I manage in a family trust.

What exactly is your position in housing and/or housing stocks? Your entry and exit? Be specific. Since we "missed it", please tell us exactly what you "caught". You post often about TOL and post their press releases...now that the stock is down 30% and counting and clearly on a downward slope...what exactly is your exit plan? Did you exit like Bruce Toll is doing??? Or are you still holding it along with your Krispy Kreme, Taser, and Netflix holdings? Or with your Lucent portfolio?

And how do you define "crash" exactly?

I still believe what I have believed for the last couple of years unwaveringly...that real estate in the next five years will go down in the "bubble areas" at least 30%, possibly more (like 40% or so) for SOME properties, like condos in San Diego, Boston, and Los Angeles, and for "distressed" properties like REO's.
 
Existing Homes Sales Hit 2nd Highest Level on Record; Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 26 Years

The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing homes rose 2 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.29 million units, a sales pace that was exceeded only by an all-time high of 7.35 million units in June. Economists had been forecasting a slight decline, believing that the red-hot housing market was finally beginning to cool off.

The strong demand pushed prices up to a record level of $220,000 last month, a gain of 15.8 percent from August 2004. That was the biggest 12-month increase since a 17.2 percent increase in July 1979.

David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said he believed that price increases will slow in coming months as the inventory of homes for sale continues to rise.
 
Quote from onewaypockets:

....
I have personally owned 7 homes, and have owned property continuously since 1984 in my 20's. I still own my very first house as a rental. My family has two more rentals that I manage in a family trust.

....
And how do you define "crash" exactly?

I still believe what I have believed for the last couple of years unwaveringly...that real estate in the next five years will go down in the "bubble areas" at least 30%, possibly more (like 40% or so) for SOME properties, like condos in San Diego, Boston, and Los Angeles, and for "distressed" properties like REO's.
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Real-estate investments should be managed like any investment portfolio - there is an entry and an exit and each position has an investment goal - like your first house that you still own and will presumably let others pay off for you through rent.

I beleive that some of the areas you mention have higher risk holding an investment position gowing forward and have modified my portfolio in those areas according to my plan.

Now, if your plan is that real-estate never goes down or you have no idea how much volatility to expect in prices or how that volatility affects your portfolio then I would say there is a problem .....
 
Quote from Covertibility:

Existing Homes Sales Hit 2nd Highest Level on Record; Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 26 Years

The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing homes rose 2 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.29 million units, a sales pace that was exceeded only by an all-time high of 7.35 million units in June. Economists had been forecasting a slight decline, believing that the red-hot housing market was finally beginning to cool off.

The strong demand pushed prices up to a record level of $220,000 last month, a gain of 15.8 percent from August 2004. That was the biggest 12-month increase since a 17.2 percent increase in July 1979.

David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said he believed that price increases will slow in coming months as the inventory of homes for sale continues to rise.
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between consumer confidence, new home sales, and mortgage apps are you riding these things all the way down?
u have to reallize that fundamental guys have been trimming their positions for some time now.
whats your agenda anyway, you are sure not making a dime trading the hgx, are you flipping houses?
 
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