Housing Rolling Along 2

Quote from SethArb:

read today about "hampton's " L.I. "fixer uppers"

going for 1.5 mil. and up ... in some cases ...

this figure is just for the land ( I assume in better locations near the water )

:p
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You can't get anywhere near the water at the Hampton's for $1.5 million.
$1.5 will get a nice 3 bed 2 1/2 bath in Quogue. :D
 
Quote from Trend Fader:

Dude I am not shorting the homebuilders right now.. I will wait for signs of cracking..

Bottom line is that they can be down 30-50% in the next year or two.. the risk is huge.
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Many others share your opinion (as I do also).

This link is to a great article showing that a guy has dumped over 1 million shares of a home builder while arguing against the premise of a housing bubble. Much like the Toll bros themselves. Read down, especially towards the bottom....best, OWP

http://www.safehaven.com/article-3547.htm
 
nobody is buying one year out these days so they get creative and come up with this...


"With buyer appetite so healthy, approximately one-third of our communities now have backlogs stretching out twelve months. Therefore, in a number of communities, we've chosen to hold off taking new home sale contracts rather than lock in sales prices today for deliveries more than a year away. Instead of selling out communities too quickly, we've chosen to ration our supply to maximize profit."

tol has always been a leader at inventing bs.

on a side note LEV came out with similiar statement 2 days ago together with a sizeable warning. interesting thing is that they operate solely in FL which is supossed to be the hottest market in the country.
 
I am carrying 1000 tol puts and was also going to wait to get short but Tol insider selling as well as a couple of other data points got me in earlier than I had anticiapted. If it pops on the CC will start selling some calls too and just went long the stock as a day trade.
 
re: nobody is buying one year out these days so they get creative and come up with this...


"With buyer appetite so healthy, approximately one-third of our communities now have backlogs stretching out twelve months. Therefore, in a number of communities, we've chosen to hold off taking new home sale contracts rather than lock in sales prices today for deliveries more than a year away. Instead of selling out communities too quickly, we've chosen to ration our supply to maximize profit."




Sorry, but if you go to any new development in FL right now you have people waiting in line, or putting their name in a lottery to build 1 year out...................... Come down here and take a look for yourself. Most builders are squeezing every penny out of these buyers that they can. This is not deception on Tol Brothers part rather it is a bullish statement.


Look, everyone knows that this market will crack at some point but why fight the trend?
 
Quote from Midas:


Look, everyone knows that this market will crack at some point but why fight the trend?
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Very true, we all can see the tree branches loaded with fruit...but it's not quite ready to pick.

Ben here could keep the party going another inning!

Bernanke2.jpg
 
More Huge Numbers at Toll Brothers


Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE - commentary - research) said its third-quarter homebuilding revenue will be the highest of any quarter in its history.

The company said third-quarter homebuilding revenue rose 55% from a year ago to $1.54 billion. Third-quarter contracts totaled $1.92 billion, up 19% from last year, while the end-of-quarter backlog was $6.43 billion, also the highest of any quarter.

"With buyer appetite so healthy, approximately one-third of our communities now have backlogs stretching out 12 months," Toll said. "Therefore, in a number of communities, we've chosen to hold off taking new-home sale contracts rather than lock in sales prices today for deliveries more than a year away."

"With revenues at nine months running 57% ahead of last year's record total, we remain on track with our previous projection of approximately 70% net income growth in fiscal 2005," the company said. "With more than 60% of fiscal 2006's projected deliveries already in our backlog, we continue to believe that net income in fiscal 2006 should be approximately 20% higher than in fiscal 2005."

--------------

The only bad news is Toll Brothers says hot markets losing steam.

Awwww..... But reading through this thread, priceless. :D
 
demand in my area which is the hottest market in the country is insatiable.

The new home builders are sold out. Contractors do not want to lock in prices now because the prices of the inputs are going up.

Where I live the average days on market for a home up to 1 million dollars is 33 days. (homes over a million take about 3 months but there are only a few a month sold so that stats are not as solid.)

The good homes sell within 3 days. There is a housing shortage and you guys are just not getting it.

We need to build twice as many homes in florida in the next 10 years.

Additionally when the tax code was changed to allow people to take gains every few years a big wave of money hit the real estate market, True, but a lot of people flipped out and realised they were wrong to sell. We are still adjusting to that inflection point.

Foreign money seems to have come back to Florida after a pull out after 911. Keep calling the top because a bull market needs to climb a wall of worry.
 
I didn't read the posts on this thread so forgive me if I'm a broken record:

Housing prices will either rise or flatten. The fact is that the world has a larger supply of middle-class workers with disposable income than any time before.

In other words, billions and billions of poor people living in shacks and tents will not effect the value of your house. However, a 100 million additional people to the global Middle Class will.
 
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