Housing Rolling Along 2

exerpt from WSJ 3/9 article

-The weakness of the dollar has suddenly made the cachet of owning a second home in the U.S. possible for many Europeans -- and they are snapping up houses and condos across Florida, as well as New York and other locations like Chicago and Colorado's ski resorts.-

-The euro has risen about 10% against the dollar in the last year and more than 50% in the last three years. Meanwhile, the British pound is up about 35% from three years ago and about 5% in the last year. Though housing prices in the U.S. have hit record highs -- the median price of a single-family home in West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Fla., rose 36% last year to $361,800, for example -- foreign buyers are undeterred because of the strength of their own currencies and housing prices that are often even higher in their own countries.-
 
Quote from Covertibility:

U.S. housing starts rise to 21-year high

"Construction of new U.S. houses rose 0.5 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted 2.195 million annualized units, the highest rate in 21 years, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday."

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Sweet Jesus, the horror!
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...these are signs of tops, not bottoms - as i wrote earlier. next to this previous post of yours, you should also post the article that tells us mortgage applications continue to plummet - and rate rises haven't even begun to hit the mortgage market...though i did recently see rates at the bank at 6.125%. went to see a house that was up for rent for $3400/mo. - the guy told me he's also "willing" to sell it for $1.3 million (because "that's what the house down the street got..."). people have just become flat out idiotic...just as they did at the height of nasdaq. fools just keep recycling through markets without understanding anything about risk...OR learning anything from other markets - i should re-iterate...these are MARKETS...you can peg whatever else you want to it but bottom line is they're markets they run up, they crap out...WHEN they go up, suddenly, everyone is as expert...when they crap out, no one talks about it anymore - people really are sheep!
 
Quote from SlyFlo:

...these are signs of tops, not bottoms - as i wrote earlier. next to this previous post of yours, you should also post the article that tells us mortgage applications continue to plummet - and rate rises haven't even begun to hit the mortgage market...though i did recently see rates at the bank at 6.125%. went to see a house that was up for rent for $3400/mo. - the guy told me he's also "willing" to sell it for $1.3 million (because "that's what the house down the street got..."). people have just become flat out idiotic...just as they did at the height of nasdaq. fools just keep recycling through markets without understanding anything about risk...OR learning anything from other markets - i should re-iterate...these are MARKETS...you can peg whatever else you want to it but bottom line is they're markets they run up, they crap out...WHEN they go up, suddenly, everyone is as expert...when they crap out, no one talks about it anymore - people really are sheep!
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Maybe its a top but I don't see anything out there warning of great danger. I'm not interested in jokers flipping houses, I'm looking at the eco reports coming out. Low inflation, stable economy, etc.. Unless something happens or the numbers start showing some changes, its hard to see anything crashing.
 
The major FLAW in the thinking is this is not a MARKET!!!!

Each and every piece of real estate in the entire US is different than any other piece of real estate.

I don't know why people cannot understand that very basic simple fact

There is absolutely no correlation between the Nasdaq and the home market, LOL. Other than the fact both use the US dollar as the basic currency.

To use some anecdotal simplistic example of a guy selling a $1.3 million house is embarrassing to say the least.

Each and every share of Yahoo common stock is the same and has exactly the same value at any point in time and that value can be ascertained at any point in time.

If you send three appraisers to the same house they will come back with three different valuations. Probably close, but none the less, different.

Most posters who cannot seem to understand this concept fall in to two categories: they live in a "hot" area or they live outside the US.

I don't mean to offend anyone but.......

SteveD
 
I will ask this question again

03-12-05 11:07 PM

where might one get monthly
historical long term median home prices for select cities /
countys / states for the last 20 yrs ?

why is this data hard to come by compared to

stock market data?

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® ??

or is there another site that might provide historical data ... perhaps even in chart form?
 
Quote from SethArb:

I will ask this question again

03-12-05 11:07 PM

where might one get monthly
historical long term median home prices for select cities /
countys / states for the last 20 yrs ?

why is this data hard to come by compared to

stock market data?

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® ??

or is there another site that might provide historical data ... perhaps even in chart form?
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Here's a link:

http://www.realestateabc.com/graphs/natlmedian.htm

Probably if you spend some time on google you can track down what you want. Above shows the median price since 1968 nationwide.

OldTrader
 
Quote from SteveD:

The major FLAW in the thinking is this is not a MARKET!!!!

Each and every piece of real estate in the entire US is different than any other piece of real estate.

I don't know why people cannot understand that very basic simple fact

There is absolutely no correlation between the Nasdaq and the home market, LOL. Other than the fact both use the US dollar as the basic currency.

To use some anecdotal simplistic example of a guy selling a $1.3 million house is embarrassing to say the least.

Each and every share of Yahoo common stock is the same and has exactly the same value at any point in time and that value can be ascertained at any point in time.

If you send three appraisers to the same house they will come back with three different valuations. Probably close, but none the less, different.

Most posters who cannot seem to understand this concept fall in to two categories: they live in a "hot" area or they live outside the US.

I don't mean to offend anyone but.......

SteveD
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Steve,

IF you live in your hosue and plan on living in it long term, then you're right, it's not a market - BUT, during times like these, that goes out the window and suddenly everyone's an expert and "investor" in real estate...and you start hearing the most insane things you can think of (ie, pre-construction "deals", ridiculous expectations, multi property investing by novices etc). IF you're talking about pricing in a real estate market, then you ARE in a market which simple supply and demand commands pricing - when you flood the markets w/cheap money, as the FED has, demand increases and so do prices - until the cost of capital goes down, this will probably continue. The DC market didnt' budge for 20 years...suddenly the past 4 years, areas that you couldn't GIVE away homes for 180k (ie, Capital Hill), are now being purchased for 800K plus, with purchasing prices sometimes coming in at 100K over asking. FL, NYC and CA are in a similar situation - Not sure where you live, but if you live in Tinbucktoo, USA, maybe you don't think of real estate as a "market". but in major US cities, it's become ridiculous. If you don't remember the late 80s, early 90s, go do some checking up.
 
Quote from OldTrader:

Here's a link:

http://www.realestateabc.com/graphs/natlmedian.htm

Probably if you spend some time on google you can track down what you want. Above shows the median price since 1968 nationwide.

OldTrader
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+=======

Oldtrader;
Seems like you have a pretty good understanding of trends/countertrends; in stocks & real estate,
and frankly, in housing stocks , DIA, SPY, are in short, med ,long term uptrends.[yesterdays close & open price today]


As someone who occasionaly buys/sell real estate over the past 20+years;
not sure that NAR chart is accurate in the sense it shows no corrections or consolidations[ sideways trends]????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????


Or even if thats correct & thanks for chart:cool:
thats EXTREME diversification-like every county/city in USA.
 
I don't like listening to anyone on the TV since many of them have personal agendas but I do have to say this guy this morning hit the nail on the head. this is from briefing from this morning:

Live In Play


17-Mar-05
09:24 TOL Toll Brothers: on CNBC, money manager comments on the 'extradinary level' of insider selling at TOL (80.55 )

Says believes leading executives at TOL have sold about $200 mln of stock over past few months. Would not buy any of the homebuilders; believes when looking back with 20/20 hindsight, we will find that housing bubble ended in Dec of last yr. Notes that Fannie Mae mortgage books have not been growing -- people just not getting the cheap lows anymore.
 
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