maybe that is in shitsville, usa but most i see is lower than that
Housing Rolling Along 2
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maybe that is in shitsville, usa but most i see is lower than that
I just made an educated guess without confirming with NAR. By definition a "Buyers Market" is a minimum of 7 months of inventory. That sets the lower level in my spread. In many places its MUCH worse than that and I based my upper limit 9 months on some of the extremes I have heard. Again, for some market areas and some kinds of real estate (e.g. condo) its MUCH worse. Condo sales are off a whopping 85 percent down here (my speciality area) and there is a lot of inventory on the market well over a year. Granted some of these sellers have so much stored up equity due to getting in on the original pre-construction wave at discount 2 years ago they are being stubborn on price and just fishing. But I'd say my numbers are certainly in the ballpark and thus Orlando is relatively "on fire".
TS
"there are not too many more negative news events possible to drive prices down substantially below this level"
No New news events! What are these?
CNN Money reports from Florida.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=2151
The Wall Street Journal reports from Florida
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=2145
The Housing Bubble
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/
If you RE brokers would just get it throw your heads everyone would be better off.
No New news events! What are these?
CNN Money reports from Florida.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=2151
The Wall Street Journal reports from Florida
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=2145
The Housing Bubble
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/
If you RE brokers would just get it throw your heads everyone would be better off.
fwiw orlando is 11 months inventory
BG this is nothing new. This is ancient news and widely known inside the real estate industry. We all know that the speculators and investors were the ones who held excess inventory to permit developers to race ahead to their next projects early before true retail buyers entered. That means investors are holding the risk and they have made a lot of equity gains in earlier gains to offset that risk. They are going to average down their gains. So what? Nothing new. Developers are the ones I would be worrying about - they are screwed for at least 2 more years. They have not reached bottom yet.
But I am not going to become an apologists for the bust markets like south FL. They deserved the crash that is coming. They still have construction cranes on the skyline and still are building. It will take Miami 10 years minimum to stabilize unless we open the boarder and let all of South America enter as immediate US citizens (not so far fetched if you know what is going on down there).
Here is a more level headed assessment of current events. People are clueless that 2006 was one of the best real estate years on record.
From NAR:
Existing-home sales for 2006 are expected to come in at 6.50 million, the third highest on record, with a total of 6.42 million seen in 2007. New-home sales in 2006 should tally 1.06 million, the fourth highest on record, with 957,000 projected this year.
David Lereah, NARâs chief economist, said annual totals for existing-home sales will be fairly comparable between 2006 and 2007. âWe have to keep in mind that we were still in boom conditions during the first quarter of 2006 with a high sales volume and double-digit price appreciation,â he said. âWe are starting 2007 from a relatively low point, so even with a gradual improvement in sales itâll be pretty much of a wash in terms of annual totals. The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward.â
TS
david lereah isn't an economist
I only care about california and median home prices went down in 2006, not exactly what I would call a boom 
Record supply, buyers on the side lines, and record foreclosure rates in 2006.
California is 50% of the entire US economy. Chew on that.
2006 was not a good year for housing.
Record supply, buyers on the side lines, and record foreclosure rates in 2006.
California is 50% of the entire US economy. Chew on that.
2006 was not a good year for housing.
Funny, I had always been operating on the assumption that California was 50% of the Mexican economy.
Really, though, go back to the basic concept of "location, location, location". I could care less about California since that might as well be another country to me. CA and the price in that market has ZERO impact on me except with respect to the people who are being forced to leave in mass to my area to buy less expensive homes and avoid a socialistic state tax and massive transportation congestion. Frankly, the US would be better off giving it back to Mexico as reparations and as a deal to save the rest of the lower 48 from takeover.
Unless you are a government economist housing markets are local not national and only relevant in the national context if you invest or live in each state.
So how does that tickle your taco?
haha
TS
Just checked the insider trading of major home builders on Yahoo. It seems that insiders are selling the stocks of their own companies like craze, the only exception being Plute Home (symbol: PHM).
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=DHI
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=DHI
Commercial is where the speculators are now. I got in with some investors in the summer and bought 60 acres at $50,000/acre, now being offered $150,00-$300,000/acre for the frontage with a major national development across the street. There is no return or upside with the amount the developers are paying, just breaking even for 20 years and paying the project off, with lot's of oversupply risk, just like residential was 3 years ago. I am still seeing it in lots of trade areas all over the country. Sure to collapse just like residential, I will be long gone by then.