No. I didn't that the new 1997 law (250/500) eliminated the swap rule. That SUX!
Housing Rolling Along 2
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No. I didn't that the new 1997 law (250/500) eliminated the swap rule. That SUX!
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
The whole idea of having a kick ass house is so you don't need to go out a hell of a lot. A pool, a plasma, a grill and a fridge full of beer and I can stay home for weeks......
Ya see, at my complex, I get a nicer pool than I would have at my house, and someone else has to clean and maintain it. An awesome gym that would cost a fortune in a home. Multiple really nice grills/areas for parties and BBQ's. An awesome club house we borrow with sweet pool tables from time to time.
Yeah, ive got the awesome plasma too.
But the best part is, ive got zero maintenance. Not bullshit home headaches to deal with. Been there, done that. I just call a guy and stuff is fixed for free
Stay home for weeks??!?!?! Ugh, boring. Too much awesome outdoor stuff to do.
I swear, even though I can afford a 3X bigger home than the last one I purchased, I think my next home will be 1800 square feet max. I like a simple low maintenance life and hate having strange people come over to clean my homes. Weird personal thing for me. I want something small and high tech
And yeah, I hate to cook, so I eat out 100% of the time. The last thing I want to do is spend any more time kooked up inside.
But it sucks that none of my friends can do anything fun anymore who bought homes. Hey , ya wanna go skiing in Vail next week? NOOOO I GOTTA MAKE THE MORTGAGE PAYMENT!
AAARRRGHH!! Losers. Like I said, complete slaves to their mortgage payments. They no longer have a life. It sucks.
Yea you must be right. zilliow gets their sales numbers from the tax records. Zillow estimates can be wrong for individual houses but the comps overall have accurately sales data. The art is figuring out which sales are comps.
but the sales records are going to be correct.
Like I said. I am a broker. i was out looking for 700,000 dollar homes with my brother in carlsbad and encinitas. I did the stats at the time with mls data.
The price per sq foot numbers were down less than 10 percent.
Your numbers are the ones that are screwed up.
You can find them in San Marcos.
John
When I go back we make look a little futher in san marcos. The problem was that we did not really see anyone making the deal look very good. By the time you were done paying the extra mello roos in San Marcos the sellers were not really offering any bargains.
The best deal we saw was in encinitas in a gated community by the YMCA.
The best deal we saw was in encinitas in a gated community by the YMCA.
The weather right on the coast can have its ups and downs in May June, July. Their is frequently a cloud, fog bank that sits at the coast, maybe couple miles in.
Check this development out. I bet you could get them down some in price.
http://www.pulte.com/homefinder/community.asp?DCMP=browsegrid&commorg_acctcode=2237
Mariners Landing at San Elijo Hills
They have some condos in there close by too. Great area. No crime. No really San Marcos proper but on west side. My ex wife flipped a condo in there 2 years ago.
John
I liked it there.
they were willing to come down about 40g from their posted prices.
some great homes with very nice views.
But, my brother did not want 400- 500 a month in fees.
thanks
by the way owned a home in la costa valley for about 4 years and my brother teaches golf at encinitas ranch.
to clear it up - it is my brother who is the buyer right now. Although I may be moving back sometime in the next year as well. But my wife is going to have a say in that.
they were willing to come down about 40g from their posted prices.
some great homes with very nice views.
But, my brother did not want 400- 500 a month in fees.
thanks
by the way owned a home in la costa valley for about 4 years and my brother teaches golf at encinitas ranch.
to clear it up - it is my brother who is the buyer right now. Although I may be moving back sometime in the next year as well. But my wife is going to have a say in that.
No, zillows own numbers are screwed up.
They dont post how exactly they calculate the zestimate.
But if you look at the numbers for last sales *ON THE ZILLOW SITE*, you can see that shit is way off.
For example, I picked a random home in carmel valley and zillow estimates its dollar/sqft at $358.
Yet the "comparable homes list" below this house, when you sort it by date sold shows the last 3 homes sold are:
$281/sqft
$278/sqft
$339/sqft
Yes the pattern is DOWN.
The average is $329 going back to 12/05 near the peak.
Where the hell does zillow get #358/sqft for this house then??? I see this all the time on zillow.
The fact is, carmel valley droped from $350+ per square foot to under $300 now.
Zillows estimates are pure CRAP and lag hugely, and its easy to prove using zillow itself.
The Zestimate is 838K for this home.
However, if we use the last sale price of a cookie cutter home a few houses down in the same neighborhood, by the same builder, and use its price per square foot instead, then the house is really only worth $658K
Zillow says $838K, but its own data shows $658.
A 180K difference, nothing to sneeze at, 21% lower than the zillow zestimate.
They dont post how exactly they calculate the zestimate.
But if you look at the numbers for last sales *ON THE ZILLOW SITE*, you can see that shit is way off.
For example, I picked a random home in carmel valley and zillow estimates its dollar/sqft at $358.
Yet the "comparable homes list" below this house, when you sort it by date sold shows the last 3 homes sold are:
$281/sqft
$278/sqft
$339/sqft
Yes the pattern is DOWN.
The average is $329 going back to 12/05 near the peak.
Where the hell does zillow get #358/sqft for this house then??? I see this all the time on zillow.
The fact is, carmel valley droped from $350+ per square foot to under $300 now.
Zillows estimates are pure CRAP and lag hugely, and its easy to prove using zillow itself.
The Zestimate is 838K for this home.
However, if we use the last sale price of a cookie cutter home a few houses down in the same neighborhood, by the same builder, and use its price per square foot instead, then the house is really only worth $658K
Zillow says $838K, but its own data shows $658.
A 180K difference, nothing to sneeze at, 21% lower than the zillow zestimate.
1. The primary point is when you first published your stats i was there in San diego looking to help my brother by a house. I did the comps in Carlsbad and I gave examples. houses that were 1.2 mill in la costa oaks were being offered as value range marketing 1.1 -1.2.
La Costa Valley same deal. North carlsbad same deal.
Sales showed a little less than a 10% drop. Although there were very few sales.
Speaking with informed agents in the area that was the way it was. The paper had just previously reported about a 7-8 percent drop from the high. My friend predicted the next report would be about 10% and it was.
I have no idea where you got your numbers from.
As far as where zillow gets it sales data from. I believe they once said. However even if they did not I know that Finis and other companies provide data from the tax records fairly cheaply. I also noticed that the zillow data trailed my mls data by about 2 months. Which is probably the lag between the agent reporting the close to the mls and the time it gets recorded published and stored in the database.
Sales data is sales data. As I said before the art or the informed thing to do is figure out which comps are worth using as comps. You might find the zillow data confusing. I do not. If the comps they choose are good recent comps and there are enough recent comps to be valid then the zillow estimate is generally pretty good although it may lag by a few months because MLS data is more timely.
I look at recent sales and figure out what the price of a home should be.
I can do that with zillow data, tax records or mls data. Then I make adjustments to house based on how it shows and other subjective criteria.
What I can tell you is that carlsbad had in no way experienced the drop you had published. Had it I would have been able to by my old home back for what I sold it for in 2003. For instance I sold my house in Carlsbad for 675 in 2003. At the peak of the market it may have been worth over 900 for a few months.
A neighbor was asking about 875 for the same house with a slightly better yard. But it was getting no offers.
That was the San diego market in a nutshell. I have no idea where you got the numbers you published.
However the simple thing to do would be to show me the date the article was written and then we can establish whether the market was really off 25% for the stated area.
La Costa Valley same deal. North carlsbad same deal.
Sales showed a little less than a 10% drop. Although there were very few sales.
Speaking with informed agents in the area that was the way it was. The paper had just previously reported about a 7-8 percent drop from the high. My friend predicted the next report would be about 10% and it was.
I have no idea where you got your numbers from.
As far as where zillow gets it sales data from. I believe they once said. However even if they did not I know that Finis and other companies provide data from the tax records fairly cheaply. I also noticed that the zillow data trailed my mls data by about 2 months. Which is probably the lag between the agent reporting the close to the mls and the time it gets recorded published and stored in the database.
Sales data is sales data. As I said before the art or the informed thing to do is figure out which comps are worth using as comps. You might find the zillow data confusing. I do not. If the comps they choose are good recent comps and there are enough recent comps to be valid then the zillow estimate is generally pretty good although it may lag by a few months because MLS data is more timely.
I look at recent sales and figure out what the price of a home should be.
I can do that with zillow data, tax records or mls data. Then I make adjustments to house based on how it shows and other subjective criteria.
What I can tell you is that carlsbad had in no way experienced the drop you had published. Had it I would have been able to by my old home back for what I sold it for in 2003. For instance I sold my house in Carlsbad for 675 in 2003. At the peak of the market it may have been worth over 900 for a few months.
A neighbor was asking about 875 for the same house with a slightly better yard. But it was getting no offers.
That was the San diego market in a nutshell. I have no idea where you got the numbers you published.
However the simple thing to do would be to show me the date the article was written and then we can establish whether the market was really off 25% for the stated area.
The numbers came from the UnionTribune (I think), and their numbers came from the local realestate sources, but I do not recall the exact source, since I threw the paper away now.
As for zillow, I posted a detailed example that proves the Zillow Zestimate cannot be right now matter how you slice and dice the zillow data.
Thats the problem I have with it. Look at the last 3 sale prices and it doesnt make sense. Look at the last 10 and it still doesnt makes sense.
Look at the average dollar per square foot that zillow calculates and it still doesnt make sense!
The zestimate seems to have no bearing on the very data that zillow is publishing. Thats the problem.
As for zillow, I posted a detailed example that proves the Zillow Zestimate cannot be right now matter how you slice and dice the zillow data.
Thats the problem I have with it. Look at the last 3 sale prices and it doesnt make sense. Look at the last 10 and it still doesnt makes sense.
Look at the average dollar per square foot that zillow calculates and it still doesnt make sense!
The zestimate seems to have no bearing on the very data that zillow is publishing. Thats the problem.