Housing Rolling Along 2

Here is my opinion on % losses.

I buy a house for 300k hold on to it for 5 years, and offer it for sale at a reasonable price based on a 50yr historical RE appreciation -let say 3-5%, compounded and let's say that calculation makes house fair valued at $400k. I walk it down from 400 to 380 where it trades, I just lost 5% off of fair value.

Take same house, I offer it on MLS at 550 hoping for some dumb money to lift my offer 1 year later I walk it down to 380 whre it traded, could you honestly say that I lost 30% on my house from my listing price. Some of these % losses are probably from avg. listing prices not traded prices.

I do agree that maybe there ought to be some law about fluffing up sale prices thru sellers concessions. Such bullshit- all designed to hold up the Natl Association of REaltors thru false comps.
 
Zillow numbers are a total joke they lag so far behind. They estimate my buddies house is worth $950K, but if you multiply his square feet by the dollar per square foot the house sold 3 houses down from him last month, his house is only worth 740K.

So claim what you want , but back it up with some real data.


Quote from jem:

like I said the last time this was posted. I doubt it stands for what you say it does.

i was out looking at the time the data was printed. it was clearly false in Carlsbad.

And it is clearly false if you look at zillow.

The charts are startging to show price per sq. foot reductions but nothing close to the quote you are choosing.

and I doubt the median price and price per sq foot could be off by that much. But I can be corrected.
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I wish I could sell my house using zillow's. I am selling it about 40K below. It clearly lags BUT it is a great realtive value tool for comparing house A vs. B in same area. I am in the process of buying a house 100K below Zillow and on the same day looked at a house 5K OVER zillow. Guess what house I am making an offer on?

There are dreamers among us and realists.
 
One's rental costs will eat up the greater portion of that 283k. Not to mention the hassle and expense of moving the furnishings that used to reside in your old million dollar home. Plus the tax hit because you didn't repurchase.

Rule #1, don't treat your home as an asset. Treat it as your crib, your domicile, your homestead. Enjoy your life. There's ZILLIONS of ways to make money other than through your residence.

I see poorer people all around SoFla living in million dollar homes purchased years ago for 100k. Weirdly those homes are rarely on the market. That tells me there's a segment of people who just don't care what they're sitting on. Those poor, lost souls are just into living.
Quote from drsteph:

I am beginning to think that way too, but am still concerned about a long drawn out but slow fall where prices keep slipping 0.5% a month or so... The next seven months should vbe very helpful in determining what exactly is going on... falling prices with rate cuts and we all know that we have a bigger problem than we all thought. I think it is very hard to gauge the upcoming slowdown at this time as it applies to the overall economy. All I know is this - from the wal mart sales figures - that the lower end consumer is tapped out, done, broke, no more money for anything. When the middle and upper class stop consuming, we may have some serious problems.

A rapid fall-off in housing prices isn't likely. But if it is a long, slow burn, who knows. The way the dollar is trying to devalue, just standing still is still a loss.

A flat market for five years means an opportunity loss. Take a million bucks, put it in a 5 year CD at 5%, and take it out with 283,000 in profit. Put it in the home, have it go nowhere, and you paid taxes and morgage for the priveledge of a poorly appreciating asset.
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Quote from EqtTrdr:

havent even seen many signs of a top yet in SoCal..


No fear, no panic.. people still buying to flip, and nobody lowering prices imo
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Do you live in Fantasy Land?

I think all your "100% up room to go" crap has warped your brain.
 

I see poorer people all around SoFla living in million dollar homes purchased years ago for 100k. Weirdly those homes are rarely on the market. That tells me there's a segment of people who just don't care what they're sitting on. Those poor, lost souls are just into living.
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Living? Lets talk about the san diego home owners all around me that are so maxed out with mortgage payments they cant even afford to furnish their home or go out to dinner. You call that living?

There are so many home slaves here its pathetic. They are getting taxed $500-$1000 a month on top of that and have maintenance to deal with.

Who needs that mess? I save a ton of money each month and still have plenty left over to actually enjoy life with.

I could by a nice home tomorrow and choose not too. Just not even close to worth it.
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

One's rental costs will eat up the greater portion of that 283k. Not to mention the hassle and expense of moving the furnishings that used to reside in your old million dollar home. Plus the tax hit because you didn't repurchase.
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What tax hit?
 
Wow, you must know a lot of folks who paid the highs!! San Diego was CHEAP until a few years ago. In fact compared to New York, Boston, D.C. or even the two major California metro's, it's still cheap.

"go out to dinner"? Christ I'd rather over pay on a home than feel cheated because I can't pay 20 bucks for a plate of pasta and 6 bucks for a Beck's every night. The whole idea of having a kick ass house is so you don't need to go out a hell of a lot. A pool, a plasma, a grill and a fridge full of beer and I can stay home for weeks......:D

But a small apartment near a reasonable cafe' is a great lifestyle also. Life offers many options.

I'm sure you're maximizing your budget but just be careful you don't look around 10 years from now and see your rent go to twice what it is presently and those outrageously priced 500k shitholes in CLAIREMONT also trade double what they are now. SD's tough. 300 million American's would like to live there and when someone "cash's out" of somewhere else (or in trading or business) SD is the place to move. and keep this in mind. Compared to most the country, assessed property tax rates in Cali are VERY inexpensive. That's one reason re-sale prices are pumped. "All in" a million dollar home in SD costs no more to carry than a 750k home in Chicago. Not to mention no heating or a/c costs.......
Quote from traderdragon2:

Living? Lets talk about the san diego home owners all around me that are so maxed out with mortgage payments they cant even afford to furnish their home or go out to dinner. You call that living?

There are so many home slaves here its pathetic. They are getting taxed $500-$1000 a month on top of that and have maintenance to deal with.

Who needs that mess? I save a ton of money each month and still have plenty left over to actually enjoy life with.

I could by a nice home tomorrow and choose not too. Just not even close to worth it.
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