Housing Rolling Along 2

Quote from kiwi_trader:

I agree with your argument even though there are a bunch of ifs in there that could change the equations again. I spent many years in a prior job forecasting markets (high tech not real estate) and there are about 5 classic mistakes in forecasting that seem to keep on repeating. Most people learn little from history when it counts.

A damned interesting situation as long as you are not amongst the damned. :)

Can you give us a hint what they are?
 
Quote from QQQBALL:

ARMS loans will almost certainly rise.

investor = speculator, maybe, but why bother to argue semantics? i think buying good properties (preferably coastal) at "right prices" with FR debt is investing, pure & simple. supply is constrained, demand is steady-to-increasing and in fully developed markets (nearer the beach), new development requires razing of existing structures. in my mind, its much more speculative to owe 95% LTV on massive home with ARM. this goes back to my passive income thingy (non-work income). people will come to realize that it is safer (less speculative) to have less home and a more diversified real estate investment port - maybe thats a simple as REITs? a home is an expense, and investment property produces income. id rather have a smaller home & more passive income. BTW, im F/C on residence, but i only keep it because i want at least 1 casa in Socal, otherwise it would be sold. i also have my biz office here too. i dont think its different this time, when GIMs on coastal props were 20x-30x POTENTIAL GROSS you sell and/or exchange. when they are 8.5-12x PGI, you buy. selling house is a great tax shelter, problem is the sheeple will suck the equity out, blow the dough and end up with their homes owning them. honestly, i just talked to a buddy that has a $1M home in san juan capostrano, but he is basically living month-to-month... so many people here live in homes that they couldnt afford to buy at today's prices. homes in Socal used to be a forced-savings plan, now they are source of spending money.

I always like your post QQQ.

I know far too many people living in 1-2 million dollar homes on incomes of less than 150K/yr. Something just doesn't work with that equation... it's out of balance, IMHO. Most have a leased Escalade and a BMW/Benz in the garage as well. Live the high life while drowning in debt you can't afford to service.
 
Long term RE bear may not materialise if the gov takes hyperinflation path at the onset of a recessin. Few years of 10% annual inflation will solve few "problems" and "disbalances" in such a way that it would be difficult to point fingers. Foreign debt, mortgage debt - what debt ? And it is rather immature to think that politics cares about long term future.
For this scenario - lock the morgage ASAP for times to come and fasten seat belt.
 
Quote from crackedback:

I always like your post QQQ.

I know far too many people living in 1-2 million dollar homes on incomes of less than 150K/yr. Something just doesn't work with that equation... it's out of balance, IMHO. Most have a leased Escalade and a BMW/Benz in the garage as well. Live the high life while drowning in debt you can't afford to service.

Keep two thoughts in mind. From a debt service standpoint, a guy making 150k and paying off a 1m mortgage at 6% is the EXACT same as a guy 20 years ago paying off a 150k mortgage on a 50 grand salary at 12% interest.

Secondly, not everyone bought the highs. Many young people in these million dollar homes bought in the late 90's for 500k and had a 100k down payment. Perhaps in the meantime they've knocked it down another hundo. So in reality they're paying off a $300,000 mortgage on a 150k a year salary. Not exactly daunting.
 
Quote from Pabst:

Keep two thoughts in mind. From a debt service standpoint, a guy making 150k and paying off a 1m mortgage at 6% is the EXACT same as a guy 20 years ago paying off a 150k mortgage on a 50 grand salary at 12% interest.

Secondly, not everyone bought the highs. Many young people in these million dollar homes bought in the late 90's for 500k and had a 100k down payment. Perhaps in the meantime they've knocked it down another hundo. So in reality they're paying off a $300,000 mortgage on a 150k a year salary. Not exactly daunting.

Not the case. All purchased in the last 18-24 months. with the lure of CHEAP money and NONE are in FR loans...
 
Quote from crackedback:

Not the case. All purchased in the last 18-24 months. with the lure of CHEAP money and NONE are in FR loans...

Wait til their divorce's kick in on top of it........
 
Yeah, and there wasnt no 100K down. Its all about 100% interest loans here.

Zero down, 100% interest and ARMS = disaster brewing. 85% of the people did that is san diego. Ludacris.
 
Quote from traderdragon:

Yeah, and there wasnt no 100K down. Its all about 100% interest loans here.

Zero down, 100% interest and ARMS = disaster brewing. 85% of the people did that is san diego. Ludacris.

the condo conversions are coimng back to market as rentals- thats what im hearing. no entry level buyer, no trade-up market, no trade-up market, no bueno, la jolla, rancho santa fe have more cash buyers.

we;ll see, im off to l.a. - here in paradise you have to get up early to beat the traffic!
 
Quote from Pabst:

Wait til their divorce's kick in on top of it........

That's a good point. Money problems is a major if not major cause of divorce.

Frequently, one of the spouse's was against buying the house and when things good south one person starts blaming the other and then things just spin out of control.



John
 
Quote from QQQBALL:

the condo conversions are coimng back to market as rentals- thats what im hearing. no entry level buyer, no trade-up market, no trade-up market, no bueno, la jolla, rancho santa fe have more cash buyers.

we;ll see, im off to l.a. - here in paradise you have to get up early to beat the traffic!

Yeap. The newly build condo on my block went from "for sales" to "for rent". The for sales sign was up for like 6 to 9 months, then changed to for rent, which is up for almost 6 months. Guess it's going nowhere.
 
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