Housing Rolling Along 2

[countryBoy]

Quote from jmccain:

Auctions are a very poor way to sell houses...

Great deal for the investor who bought it, not so great for the owner.

Definately agreed. Seems like the woman should have waited, gotten a more agressive realtor, hire one of those consultants that put furniture and artwork in houses, etc. Do something else.

But just the same as a specialist's book, the bid side for residential RE looks pretty thin.

Probably the housing problem is that most everybody's got one, and a lot of people have a lot more than one.

 

[QQQBALL]

Quote from countryBoy:

Definately agreed. Seems like the woman should have waited, gotten a more agressive realtor, hire one of those consultants that put furniture and artwork in houses, etc. Do something else.

But just the same as a specialist's book, the bid side for residential RE looks pretty thin.

Probably the housing problem is that most everybody's got one, and a lot of people have a lot more than one.

she had the property listed for sale and couldnt sell it. im sure she never dreamed two bidders would offer under $500k at auction. gotta be a very extreme example....

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from countryBoy:

But she did sell it. Read it again

...On the morning of Aug. 5, the auctioneer, Stephen Karbelk, set up loudspeakers on Ms. Guth's side lawn....

this guy didn't do a good job, he send out 3x5 b/w postcard with pictures of 2 tiny properties on it, they looked unattractive, I gave it a cursory gland then threw it away. She could definitely asking around for better agent.

 

[IV_Trader]

the ugly old real estate whore on FOX just said " There is a lot of people/money on the sideline , and now ( prices already corrected ) its a good time to buy".
Now , where did I heard it before ? hahaha

 

[nkhoi]

"This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices," Roubini said. The decline in investment in the housing sector will exceed the drop in investment when the Nasdaq collapsed in 2000 and 2001, he said.

— Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics

http://money.netscape.com/viewstory...FF-4EE4-ACF7-530A3CD714D3}&symbol=&frame=true

 

[Pabst]

I agree with Roubini's less hysterical assertions. Housing prices will come off hard and we will be in a recession next year. I see the inverted yield curve as a strong signal that the tightening cycle is over and I expect an ease in Q1/07.


That being said, I doubt the fall in RE will be a 2000-2002 NASDAQ type phenomena. More like the break in the Dow during that period. Home prices will "fill in" much of the late 90's early millennium advance without being hammered much worse than that. Why? Because there's been a paradigm shift in valuations vis a vis rental prices. While one can rent cheaper than they can own, at interest rates this low, with the mortgage deduction and with a movement in many locales toward portable taxation rates, one can't rent considerably cheaper and on a decline of 20-30% P/E's will be right back in line. I know 30% seems like one hell of a decline but in the context of properties tripling even quadrupling in the past 15 years, it's really just a "correction."

Quote from nkhoi:

"This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices," Roubini said. The decline in investment in the housing sector will exceed the drop in investment when the Nasdaq collapsed in 2000 and 2001, he said.

— Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics

http://money.netscape.com/viewstory...FF-4EE4-ACF7-530A3CD714D3}&symbol=&frame=true

 

[traderdragon]

I think this will be a long slow painful 5 year grind down.

A buddy of mine bailed the other day on dinner, because he is strapped for cash, paying for his condo. His payments havent even gone through the first "rest" yet. He is going to get killed.

Amazing what people will do to themselves in san diego just to own a hime. Not worth it.

I keep trying to find sale prices of homes around here, but there arent any, LMAO.

Its a sales ghost town. I think all the sellers are shell shocked and havent come to the reality they need to lower their prices for it to sell.

Next year is going to be interesting.

 

[QQQBALL]

Quote from Pabst:


"fill in" much of the late 90's early millennium advance without being hammered much worse than that.

could you restate that in simple English after looking up the definition of millenium?

 

[Pabst]

Quote from QQQBALL:

could you restate that in simple English after looking up the definition of millenium?

Think I'm missing a comma. I mean the 96-05 part of the rally.

 

[QQQBALL]

Quote from Pabst:

Think I'm missing a comma. I mean the 96-05 part of the rally.

the early 1990's were very dark days for real estate investors - a return to that kinda market would be brutal, because i dont remember the debt levels being this high last time and the lenders have been much more aggressive this time 'round. rates reached historic lows in this cycle - did the govt lock in those rates? no, they eliminated the 30-yr Bond and loaded the ST rates so they could scream about deficit reduction (added by lower IR). with $7+ in debt to grow $1 in GDP, id say there is some malinvestment to burn-off (burn-up?). did all of the borrowers lock in FR loans, no! they opted for more house and ARMs. i think we get a dip sometime in rates to let the braindead refi.

the scary part now is that r.e. seems to be tanking w/o a jump in unemployment or as a result of a recession. will it be different this time? maybe, maybe the r.e. downturn will lead to increased unemployment, which will further weaken real estate, etc. a contractior mentioned that 14% t o15% of S.D. economic base is tied to real estate versus a "normal 4%" rate. if thats true, wowza! gonna be alot of 4WD diesel trucks and r.e. honey-pot- mobiles (760 BMWs) on the market~!

i just want passive income & when this is over lots of other people are gonna come 'round to that way of thinking. i can be real frugal, so when money stops coming in, it stops going out! i was in the supermarket last 2 days. ALL of the bacon & ham "sale items" were sold out monday and only a bit of farmer john bacon was left on tueday evening - plenty of everything else! ... everything that is on sale, sells! ive also note lower quantity of steaks and pricier cuts in the meat dept, and PORK gets more space now than beef; its cheaper? they are starting to slice rump roasts and chuck roast & sell them as "rump steaks or chuck steaks" or sumtin like that - dont remember the exact name.