Housing Rolling Along 2

[Covertibility]

US May existing home sales fall 1.2 percent

Nationally, single-family home sales slipped 1.5 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.82 million, 6.6 percent below a year ago, but the median price was up 6.4 percent from a year ago to $229,700.

Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales rose 1.9 percent in May to an annual pace of 852,000 units, also 6.6 percent below the year-ago pace. The median condo price was up 1.9 percent on the year to $229,300.

 

[traderdragon]

Stopped by a nice house in hot Carmel Vallery during lunch. 2300 square feet, 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath. Now get this.

Price has been reduced $100,000 from 800k and its still not selling. Its been on the market now for 171 days. :eek:

Sellers are going to freak soon. Bids are getting pulled. Look out below!

 

[Handsome]

Is it possible that housing is just pulling back and retracing some just like a strong stock does on an upward journey?....With what seems like everyone and their brother calling for a crash and a bubble bursting, is it possible that this is just like a retracement for awhile and then back upwards again?

Any thoughts?

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from traderdragon:

Stopped by a nice house in hot Carmel Vallery during lunch. 2300 square feet, 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath. Now get this.

Price has been reduced $100,000 from 800k and its still not selling. Its been on the market now for 171 days. :eek:

Sellers are going to freak soon. Bids are getting pulled. Look out below!

Wow...
Looks like my 4bed home in Rancho PQ is probably worth 100k less too. Ohwell, I saw it coming. Not moving for a while.. easy come, easy go.

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from traderdragon:
Ive got a big pile of cash in the bank. If I get lucky, ill catch the bottom of a big panic in a 2-3 years. Keeping the powder dry [/B]

I think this will take a little longer than 2-3 years to completely bottom out. I agree, its overshot.. but there's still pent up demand here -- hell, you're even talking about buying, despite how bearish you are.

I think prime buying time will be in 5-6 years. I Agree, it will be quite a ride. You should buy when even you're leary of it at cheap prices. You're underlying attitude is bullish- I can feel it.

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from traderdragon:

Stopped by a nice house in hot Carmel Vallery during lunch. 2300 square feet, 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath. Now get this.

Price has been reduced $100,000 from 800k and its still not selling. Its been on the market now for 171 days. :eek:

Sellers are going to freak soon. Bids are getting pulled. Look out below!

By the way, I just checked 92014 (del mar) on zip realty, and there's still a relative shortage of inventory on the low end, and prices haven't moved down. Kind of surprising.

When 92014 cracks (and it will), I'll be impressed. [and validated concerning my correctness of predicting impending drops]

 

[eco]

Quote from Handsome:

Is it possible that housing is just pulling back and retracing some just like a strong stock does on an upward journey?....With what seems like everyone and their brother calling for a crash and a bubble bursting, is it possible that this is just like a retracement for awhile and then back upwards again?

Any thoughts?

It seems to me that one never knows for sure.
With tradables each pulse upwards increases the probability of a "more significant" retracement. Also an/each exponential rise increases the probability.
One issue with housing is that its hard to enter and exit so that should make price rises initially more stable (soft crashes) but ultimately any real fall should be sharper.

 

[Smart Money]

Quote from traderdragon:

This really is a must read: http://piggington.com/bubble

Id like to hear some bulls try and counter his points.

Hey, I'm a bull and I can tell you that it doesn't surprise me that some markets are out of whack. It is as surprising as being told that a certain stock is overpriced, even during a bull market. Now if someone goes out and borrows a crapload of money, perhaps their entire life savings and then some, to buy an item in an over-priced market without hedging themselves I have no sympathy for them. There is a difference between a bull and a fool.

SM

 

[traderdragon]

I said if im lucky ill catch the bottom of a ***panic*** in 2-3 years. I consider 2-3 years too short, thats why I used the word panic.

I think you are correct it will take 5,6,7,8 years to hit the real bottom. But if im ***lucky*** a panic would occur, sending it down fast.

No, I am not a bull by any means right now. Ill turn bullish when prices go back to the mean. Im a big time bear right now.

Quote from scriabinop23:

I think this will take a little longer than 2-3 years to completely bottom out. I agree, its overshot.. but there's still pent up demand here -- hell, you're even talking about buying, despite how bearish you are.

I think prime buying time will be in 5-6 years. I Agree, it will be quite a ride. You should buy when even you're leary of it at cheap prices. You're underlying attitude is bullish- I can feel it.

 

[traderdragon]

Now if someone goes out and borrows a crapload of money, perhaps their entire life savings and then some, to buy an item in an over-priced market without hedging themselves I have no sympathy for them. There is a difference between a bull and a fool.

Its worse than that. Most people here have purchased an item, in an over priced market, at 14X their gross salary, with no hedging, and put 0 down because they dont even have any life savings, so they got an interest only loan, and ARM so they could barely make the payments.

Hows that for a perfect storm brewing???

At lunch the other day, I over heard a couple talking about their friends who recently bought a house in arizona, moved there, cant find a job, and the big problem is, they have a house in San Marcos with an interest only load, and they cant seem to sell it. Ouch.