Housing Rolling Along 2

"But this is a time for the Fed to pause on rate hikes because we have some interest-sensitive housing markets that have become vulnerable," he said.


That is what I was referring to when I said Bernanke doesn't care.
He made that very plain that he will not come to the rescue.



John
 
I found this on another blog...

"What the industry is going through appears to be much more brutal than most had anticipated even just a few short months ago," A.G. Edwards analyst Gregory Gieber wrote in a comment. "Last year, our view was that it would be a soft landing, but as 2006 started to roll forward our concerns grew and we abandoned the soft-landing view for one of a 'sweating-palms or white-knuckle rough landing.' But over the past month or so, we have come to fear that even that revised view was likely too optimistic."
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Housing Rolling Along?
 
Quote from Smart Money:

So is it a fair statement to feed the bears and tell them, "you were right, the bubble burst" and then say, "but the bubble was pretty small"?
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What I am seeing in south florida is the following, prices came down 10-15% at most, everybody expected much more, and you see puzzled would be buyers getting anxious. so now builders are selling out last good location units at discounts, and once they sell them out thats it, they dont have any attractive new projects in the pipeline, everything planned is in ghettos, or so far west that you can play with the alligators. everybody wants to live in brand new communitites because they tend to be built "hurricane proof" Once the inventory of new houses in good neighborhoods, thats the key, is cleaned up, prices are going to rise again on resales. 10-15 year old single family homes are not sellling well, thats where one can get a "good deal"

miami is a case in itself with condo overbuild going to end up in few buildings not making it off the ground, but people who bought in pre-con 2 years ago are still going to make out very well.
 
I see much the same in Ft. Lauderdale. I'm still troubled by P/E's. I saw a listing for a one bedroom condo in Hallandale (ocean front) for $449,000 or rent @$1300! Clear disparity.

As far as downtown Miami(Brickell corridor ect.) it seems Copernicus that the pricing in many of those buildings is reasonable. The Herald is FILLED with ads yet I see many 1 BD's in the 2's and 2BD's in the high 3's. Not at all outrageous compared to the Beach. You hit upon a subtlety though in SoFla that's rarely noted. Here anything west of US1 or even more so west of I-95 is clearly less desirable and vulnerable to over supply. And Wilma proved that being ten miles west is no guarantee of safety from hurricanes....
Quote from Copernicus:

What I am seeing in south florida is the following, prices came down 10-15% at most, everybody expected much more, and you see puzzled would be buyers getting anxious. so now builders are selling out last good location units at discounts, and once they sell them out thats it, they dont have any attractive new projects in the pipeline, everything planned is in ghettos, or so far west that you can play with the alligators. everybody wants to live in brand new communitites because they tend to be built "hurricane proof" Once the inventory of new houses in good neighborhoods, thats the key, is cleaned up, prices are going to rise again on resales. 10-15 year old single family homes are not sellling well, thats where one can get a "good deal"

miami is a case in itself with condo overbuild going to end up in few buildings not making it off the ground, but people who bought in pre-con 2 years ago are still going to make out very well.
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Quote from Copernicus:

Once the inventory of new houses in good neighborhoods, thats the key, is cleaned up, prices are going to rise again on resales.
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yeah, provided the prices is much lower.
 
Quote from Pabst:

As far as downtown Miami(Brickell corridor ect.) it seems Copernicus that the pricing in many of those buildings is reasonable. The Herald is FILLED with ads yet I see many 1 BD's in the 2's and 2BD's in the high 3's. Not at all outrageous compared to the Beach.
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yeah that sounds reasonable now, i didnt realize it dropped so much, i'm still used to seeing 500k+ for 2/2
 
Quote from Adobian:

yeah, provided the prices is much lower.
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desirable communities still sell out at whatever prices are , people buy to live there, and as long as they qualify for mortgage, they dont really care if prices drop another 10% or whatever it might be, surely in 10-15 yrs they'll be ok.

but, there are plenty of other communities out there in lower income areas where buyers wont show up even when prices drop by 30%, because they simply cant afford it, and higher income families dont want to live and buy there.
 
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