Quote from Covertibility:
According to NAR, the past 5 years were nothing compared to the 70's and yet there was no crash in the 80's.
And yet we still get the chicken littles claiming the sky is falling.
In my area from 1980-84 there was a real estate decline of about 25%...at least. Perhaps if Robert Campbell is still reading this thread he can fill in the exact amount as his area in San Diego tracks almost exactly the Los Angeles/Orange/Ventura areas.
This today about the "numbers" the NAR is (self) promoting...OWP
http://www.xanga.com/russwinter
Thursday, March 23, 2006
NAR Reaches Up Ass, Pulls Out Some Numbers.
The rectifiers at the Ministry of Truth have spewn forth some existing homes numbers that only Ernest P "Do I look like I have stupid written all over my face" Worell would appreciate. Incredibly the cognoscenti take this data as credible? According to this "source", existing-home sales rose in February following five months of decline, indicating a stabilization is taking place in the market, according to the Nat'l Asso. of Realtors (NAR). Use truthful information at your own peril for trading though, as the Ken Lay school of the new underworld order of liars is running a full court press.
Total existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 11.1 percent to a pace of 1.60 million in February, and were 1.9 percent above a year earlier.
In the West, existing-home sales increased 5.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.44 million in February, but were 10.6 percent below February 2005.
Existing-home sales in the South fell 2.5 percent in February to a level of 2.69 million, but were 3.1 percent higher than a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 19.2 percent to an annual sales rate of 1.18 million units in February, and were 2.6 percent higher than February 2005.
Fortunately, in today's world we have bloggers who keep a very close intimate look on what is typically their local markets. Let me introduce a few to you, and see what they are saying about February, specifically in the Northeast, as I've discussed trends in Florida, Arizona, and California in previous blog posts. First from northern New Jersey, where Northeast sales were supposedly up per the NAR, " Let me note that these sales volumes do not reflect what we saw in Northern NJ over the same time period. Sales in Northern NJ (GSMLS only) declined approximately 18% in February (1705 to 1395)."
From No. Virginia,
Comparing February 2006 with February 2005........
* Single family home sales down 16 percent.
* Condo sales down 27 percent
* Single family home listings up 275 percent
* Condo listings up 429 percent
From Boston,
February 2006 MAR data is in. Sales fell for 5th consecutive month and were 1.7% below February 2005. Inventory is up from a year ago by 40.5%. Nominal year over year prices fell for 2nd month in a row.
Hot of the press from the West, where the bogus NAR reports sales off 10% yoy in February. The CAR has a bit more bearish number at 15.5% off yoy for California. Look at that 6.7 month inventory! Another 3% drop in prices as well. The CAR "economist" prediction of "modest single digit" appreciation this year is patently absurd.
Sales in Arizona, down a mere 24% yoy.
And gee, while we are at it, Florida's came today as well, sales down 20% yoy. NAR would have you believe the South was up 3%.
From "The Wisdom of Crowdsâ:
âDuring a true bubble, price and value lose all connection. Prices rise because people expect them to keep rising. At least they do until the moment when they donât. Then comes the stampede for the exits.â
