Housing Rolling Along 2

I read in the WSJ over a month ago that the large banks have reduced their exposure to exotics by 75%. Some have already sold off these CMO's, others hedged them with insurance. They will still take a bite, but I don't think the coming real estate pop is going to kill any of the big banks.

Quote from dac8555:

thanks guys..i am liking it. Move in on a few other just a bit today. I think the next move will be to look at home lenders, home improvement retailers, and banks with heavy lending departments like Washington Mutual. the banks make take another year to really get hit, and the retailers may be a wiser move after the retail season.

do you guys have any other ideas on how to take advantage of the declining market?

Does anyone think it will hold out?...i am curious to hear a strong case for the other side. might i add "people need to live somewhere" is not a strong case in my book.

i hope there is not a recession...that doesnt just effect the USA, it effects the world.
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yeah, i though about that... most of them sell the debt.who buys the loans? is it freddie mac? somebody has to be left holding the bag.
 
POS Death March Continues...WLS is down over 31% so far from the recent peak, and has just rolled over again the last few days for a fresh stab at new lows. And tomorrow??? Look out below! This company was absolutely bankrupt back in the early 90's after the last bust. William Lyon lost almost his entire net worth back then. In 1989 he was the wealthiest man in California (per Forbes) running the previous WILLIAM LYON Homes. By 1993 he was worth perhaps $300k. Bill Lyon had lost everything except for his home and one car. The banks took his wife's wedding ring as their home exceeded the bankruptcy homestead allowance. GENERAL LYON wiped out all of his shareholders in 1993. And this time, right as the housing markets seemingly start to roll over, is it really so different this time???....OWP

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051109/20051109006030.html?.v=1
"William Lyon Homes (ticker:WLS) today reported that net income for the third quarter decreased 15%. Consolidated operating revenue decreased 21%."

"Homes closed of 650, down 25% from 864 in the third quarter of 2004. Consolidated operating revenue of $376.3 million, down 21% from $475.0 million in the third quarter of 2004. Homebuilding gross margin of $89.7 million, down 29% from $125.7 million in the third quarter of 2004."

"General William Lyon, Chairman and CEO, stated: 'The Company's net income was down approximately 15% as a result of reduced closings and lower gross margins. Our results for the quarter were also negatively impacted by a reduction of 150 basis points in our gross margin percentages for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 as compared to the quarter ended September 30, 2004 primarily due to the earlier close out of projects with higher average gross margins and a shift in product mix. William Lyon primarily operates in Southern California, San Diego, Northern California, Arizona, and Nevada.''
 
<IMG SRC=http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/w/wls>

Wow, this thing doubled this year. I'm a little curious is this Q an apples to apples comparison to last year since they do mention a change in product and "a lack of available product to sell."

Wow, this company is up 50% YTD and its a POS. LOL. If anyone wants a laugh, go back through oneway's posts and you'll find that he says private companies are honorable and public companies are POS. Makes ya wonder about where he works and with his tirade against housing, where he lives.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

Wow, this thing doubled this year. I'm a little curious is this Q an apples to apples comparison to last year since they do mention a change in product and "a lack of available product to sell."

Wow, this company is up 50% YTD and its a POS. LOL. If anyone wants a laugh, go back through oneway's posts and you'll find that he says private companies are honorable and public companies are POS. Makes ya wonder about where he works and with his tirade against housing, where he lives.
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Most every publicly traded company is a whore to their quarterly statement. If you're not growing like a bacteria colony Wall Street will want no part of you so these companies will do anything to keep the game going. Anything. Screw the employees, screw the creditors, create "shell" divisions, legal teams tieing things up for years, professional writers penning glowing press releases, and lie, lie, lie, the games are endless. The insiders collect their huge bonus checks and sell their options before they are booted, all on the backs of small investors and mutual fund buyers.

These stocks are good for a trade only, I have said this all along since I have been on ET. You trade them for a few days, a few weeks, perhaps a few months, then get out. You only make money when you sell and take profits, paper profits do not count!

I stand by every post I have ever made, and have disclosed my real estate positions. You have not done the same. I have never seen you admit to actually owning any stock or property at all.

The problem with "buy-and-hold" can be demonstrated by the following...

Covert on 3-14-05 talking about a double....
Quote from Covertibility:

There's this thread on this site called RE is dead where I mocked many of the posters for such idiocy. One of the stocks I touted there was TOL. Since that thread started homebuilders soared including a double in TOL. Such an easy play. What now? Ya we'll get an airpocket where prices decline, but in the long run, these things are safe and sound.
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Great, a double. Everyone loves those. But now that double is gone. Now the performance YTD is exactly 0%, almost to the cent. If you want to count going back to the earlier threads that double has roughly been cut in half, and threatening to be cut more in the coming weeks and months. Eventually it will show 0% as well. Just a matter of time.

These POS's parabolic charts always find their own level eventually. Usually back close to where they started. In the meantime with this particular one, Robert and Bruce Toll (and most certainly their Wall Street underwriters and other cronies, etc) have rung their cash registers to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars (by selling and distributing the stock to the masses). Smart men. Arrogant bastards. Typical Wall Street behavior repeated throughout the years with thousands of companies.

Have you rung your cash register?

Ever?
 
Quote from onewaypockets:

Screw the employees, screw the creditors, create "shell" divisions, legal teams tieing things up for years, professional writers penning glowing press releases, and lie, lie, lie, the games are endless.
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Be happy we can still have real estates but probably not our little children if one can read in this transcript of a conference about globalisation which concerns US (but the rest of the world is under the same fate):

http://thewinds.org/library/order1.html
http://thewinds.org/library/order2.html

HOME OWNERSHIP A THING OF THE PAST
Privately owned housing would become a thing of the past. The cost of housing and financing housing would gradually be made so high that most people couldn't afford it. People who already owned their houses would be allowed to keep them but as years go by it would be more and more difficult for young people to buy a house. Young people would more and more become renters, particularly in apartments or condominiums. More and more unsold houses would stand vacant. People just couldn't buy them. But the cost of housing would not come down. You'd right away think, well the vacant house, the price would come down, the people would buy it. But there was some statement to the effect that the price would be held high even though there were many available so that free market places would not operate. People would not be able to buy these and gradually more and more of the population would be forced into small apartments. Small apartments which would not accommodate very many children. Then as the number of real home-owners diminished they would become a minority. There would be no sympathy for them from the majority who dwelled in the apartments and then these homes could be taken by increased taxes or other regulations that would be detrimental to home ownership and would be acceptable to the majority. Ultimately, people would be assigned where they would live and it would be common to have non-family members living with you. This by way of your not knowing just how far you could trust anybody. This would all be under the control of a central housing authority.
 
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