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Housing market sucks, inventory at record high, lending being tightened...
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
You're making my point BLSH. Just the fact that some jacked up place like Naples can't come off 40% on air is in itself a bull item.
Listen, I'm not at all bullish for a litany of reasons. I'm also though a keen observer of sentiment and there's too much bearishness. Bear talk without prices following through equals a bullish tape.
Listen, I'm not at all bullish for a litany of reasons. I'm also though a keen observer of sentiment and there's too much bearishness. Bear talk without prices following through equals a bullish tape.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I'll be more than happy to concede that there are immune areas right now, from a price decline - so far. These areas are pretty few and far between, my friend.
That would include a place like Manhattan.
But guess what, Pabst? Naples is flat. Palm Beach is barely appreciating. Bradenton, the appreciation leader the last 3 years, is flat or marginal.
Even the strongest areas are tepid.
How long until we see price declines in these strongest markets? Just wait until Wall Street gets its next shakeout.
Another problem I see in many of the latest suburbian bubbles is that most of the houses built in the last 7-8 years were huge. In the past, investors would buy housing and rent them out. However, a lot of these mini-mansions are not rentable as they're just too big for the avg renter. So that market becomes more illiquid than in years past and the demand for *rentable* sized property improves along with rents relative to the bigger stuff.
Quote from risktaker:
Another problem I see in many of the latest suburbian bubbles is that most of the houses built in the last 7-8 years were huge. In the past, investors would buy housing and rent them out. However, a lot of these mini-mansions are not rentable as they're just too big for the avg renter. So that market becomes more illiquid than in years past and the demand for *rentable* sized property improves along with rents relative to the bigger stuff.
I was thinking the same thing. Jeez, people are down to 1 or 2 kids (if any at all) and yet everyone is building (and heating/cooling/insuring/paying taxes on) 4000sq homes.
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
You're making my point BLSH. Just the fact that some jacked up place like Naples can't come off 40% on air is in itself a bull item.
Listen, I'm not at all bullish for a litany of reasons. I'm also though a keen observer of sentiment and there's too much bearishness. Bear talk without prices following through equals a bullish tape.
Pabst, I perfectly understand what you're saying about what has happened to date. It's what is about to happen where I think you and I have more divergent views.
I don't discount anything you say. I know you've seen a lot of cycles.
I think Shiller has theory on nominal deflation that makes sense, even in the areas where absolute deflation isn't pronounced. He says that a 10 year 'flat' condition could equal a 40% depreciation. So, housing appreciation of 3% less than the inflation rate for a protracted period of time can have devastating effects, too.
Of course, he also has the sudden-shock, absolute deflation risk baked into his model, too, and you're right, those deflationary pressures are greatest in the most speculative markets.
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
You're making my point BLSH. Just the fact that some jacked up place like Naples can't come off 40% on air is in itself a bull item.
Listen, I'm not at all bullish for a litany of reasons. I'm also though a keen observer of sentiment and there's too much bearishness. Bear talk without prices following through equals a bullish tape.
I used to live on Marco Island and recently went to visit some friends...driving from the 75 towards Marco two years ago on a visit I noticed a ridiculous amount of new construction on swamp land. This year I noticed a shitload of abandoned projects.
Prices will come down when desparation sets in....can't happen overnight.
http://rattube.com/blog1/2007/03/20/houses-cheaper-than-cars-in-detroit/
im moving to motown... cheap houses, hot women, and good music. houses starting at $1300... buy a McMansion for $130,000... down from $500k !!!!
im moving to motown... cheap houses, hot women, and good music. houses starting at $1300... buy a McMansion for $130,000... down from $500k !!!!
Quote from ratboy88:
http://rattube.com/blog1/2007/03/20/houses-cheaper-than-cars-in-detroit/
im moving to motown... cheap houses, hot women, and good music. houses starting at $1300... buy a McMansion for $130,000... down from $500k !!!!
HAHA! Great link Rat..
Now THAT'S the area to look at....
You could buy a city block for 500K...
In SoFla yea, prices are down 20%. Big deal. They quadrupled over the previous 13 years. [/B]
Even the NAZ took 3 years to fall to its lows and that is an instrument people can dump instantly.
Pointing out the housing hasnt fallen much so far, so early after the peak is just plain silly.
Lets see where home prices will be 6 years from now. Real estate grinds down at a much slower rate than NAZ stocks.
Lets get realistic here.