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Housing is now in below Depression erra levels
- Thread starter EMRGLOBAL
- Start date
the unemployed or underemployed don't buy homes or new cars even if interest rates are 0% you still need downpayment plus monthly mortgage payments...public transportation or renting is the only option.
with rising food and gas prices and inflation working people lose with inflation if wages are the same...there is no free lunch...there is no 0% interest rates money isn't free...consumers are paying for this.
it cost billions to keep the wall street open to exchange paper..and manage paper.
with rising food and gas prices and inflation working people lose with inflation if wages are the same...there is no free lunch...there is no 0% interest rates money isn't free...consumers are paying for this.
it cost billions to keep the wall street open to exchange paper..and manage paper.
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:
For those of you on ET who are into building true wealth and not just banging on a key board.... The current housing numbers should be an eye opener.
While the Pundits stand around and yell BULL MARKET, and Morgan Stanley clowns call for 5% GDP heading into next year, Home values have now fallen 26%, since their high back in June 2006. Depression Erra level was around 25.9%....between 1928-1933.
End of 07 was close to the first of the crash. We are now into 2011, first month. The Depression back in 1928 did not happen until 2 years after the 28 crash in markets.
IMHO, we are heading into the Second Depression. However, this Depression is not going to look like the first. It is a stealthly one. The News Media, Fianancial Fools and the rest will beat their drums and say we are not in a Depression, there will be major spin. The buying power of Americans will be destoryed but as long as you purchase goods in the US...you will not feel the effect much, other than in Food and Energy.
Second, the Depression will de distributed through out the EMU. So, the pressure will slightly be even across the board. In other words, it will bring the EMU, THE US and Parts of LATIN AMERICA down to low levels of GDP, Consumption combined with inflated cost in Education, Energy, Food, and Super high unemployment.
This is just an observation I have as I deal world wide. IMHO, there will be either a basket of currency to compete with the dollar or there will be a "choice" of how to conduct transations globally, with the dollar being the last choice. It has already started.
Take a look under the surface of this data. First off, our big government friends must be fawning over the fact that DC leads the nation in percentage increase. No surprise as the salary increases (even since Obama took office have been astronomical).
Secondly, the chart omits peak values, so how are we to determine how far prices have recessed since say 2006? The increases chart the top performing markets, they don't consider the nation as a whole.
Thirdly, in the past decade, the dollar has lost x amount in percentage terms, so how have the very BEST housing markets performed relative to the loss in purchasing power of the dollar.
Fourthly, let's see a chart of the increases in property taxes, utility costs and other such items that accompany these price increases. Sure, if you are a flipper, a realtor, a mortgage broker or a municipality that benefits from higher prices and a bigger tax bite, these charts are wonderful. If you are an average Joe plodding away trying to keep a roof over your head, I fail to see what a great boon this is all things considered. (i.e. if your cost of living rises in lockstep and then your appraised value results in a bigger tax bite, it's a drain.)
I suppose that since we have transitioned into this asset inflationary economy, idiots like the OP cheerlead meaningless, cherry picked stats like this. Of course, this same idiot was bullish on real estate in 2006 as well. It's long been suspected that he is that disgraced David Lereah, still as brain dead as ever.
Secondly, the chart omits peak values, so how are we to determine how far prices have recessed since say 2006? The increases chart the top performing markets, they don't consider the nation as a whole.
Thirdly, in the past decade, the dollar has lost x amount in percentage terms, so how have the very BEST housing markets performed relative to the loss in purchasing power of the dollar.
Fourthly, let's see a chart of the increases in property taxes, utility costs and other such items that accompany these price increases. Sure, if you are a flipper, a realtor, a mortgage broker or a municipality that benefits from higher prices and a bigger tax bite, these charts are wonderful. If you are an average Joe plodding away trying to keep a roof over your head, I fail to see what a great boon this is all things considered. (i.e. if your cost of living rises in lockstep and then your appraised value results in a bigger tax bite, it's a drain.)
I suppose that since we have transitioned into this asset inflationary economy, idiots like the OP cheerlead meaningless, cherry picked stats like this. Of course, this same idiot was bullish on real estate in 2006 as well. It's long been suspected that he is that disgraced David Lereah, still as brain dead as ever.
Quote from brokenmarkets:
the unemployed or underemployed don't buy homes or new cars even if interest rates are 0% you still need downpayment plus monthly mortgage payments...public transportation or renting is the only option.
with rising food and gas prices and inflation working people lose with inflation if wages are the same...there is no free lunch...there is no 0% interest rates money isn't free...consumers are paying for this.
it cost billions to keep the wall street open to exchange paper..and manage paper.
For as much worthless shit you take from the peanut gallery here, you are right on target most of the time.
That's only two out of the twenty, or about the same as the representation of the Red states from the last Presidential election on that list (it might actually only be one, depending on how Missouri went, which I don't remember off the top of my head).
So much for the alleged demise of the Blues. What the Reds don't understand, and will, it seems, never get, is that reward goes with risk in economies as well as with people. Which means sometimes you get big drawdowns.
Being economically inert, like North Dakota or Montana, means never having to worry about a big drop. There's not very far to fall in the first place.
So much for the alleged demise of the Blues. What the Reds don't understand, and will, it seems, never get, is that reward goes with risk in economies as well as with people. Which means sometimes you get big drawdowns.
Being economically inert, like North Dakota or Montana, means never having to worry about a big drop. There's not very far to fall in the first place.
you see that list as a vindication for what, brain dead spending by democrats?
Most of that list is CA, the foundation for CA's boom was when it was a very libertarian state. It has been destroyed by over spending and over regulating democrats.
New York is going down the drain since Giuliani.
and D.C. is bolstered my spending which can't be sustained.
City after City on the east coast is imploding because of democrats and you want to play the red state blue state game?
Most of that list is CA, the foundation for CA's boom was when it was a very libertarian state. It has been destroyed by over spending and over regulating democrats.
New York is going down the drain since Giuliani.
and D.C. is bolstered my spending which can't be sustained.
City after City on the east coast is imploding because of democrats and you want to play the red state blue state game?
BOB 111,
I didn't have to sell my self on getting short this week. However, I am what you may call....a Pitch Book Man. Pay's well in the Global World of Private Equity.
Nevertheless, facts are facts. The numbers can lie if you'r cooking the books but the housing data IMHO, are close to real numbers.
I didn't have to sell my self on getting short this week. However, I am what you may call....a Pitch Book Man. Pay's well in the Global World of Private Equity.
Nevertheless, facts are facts. The numbers can lie if you'r cooking the books but the housing data IMHO, are close to real numbers.
Mr. Convertability has a nice chart. The glass is either half empty of half full.
DENNER: ur spot on and well put. I tend to be far more un-orthodox with my writting on ET.
The charts look good on face value. However, it is interesting that the Schiller Housing Index say's other wise. I too, could dig up numbers and charts. I rather have people do their own research.
But think outside the box....If you bought your house 20 years ago, you can still be in trouble. However, let me see...hummmm the housing run started when Mr. Greenspan cut rates in 2001. The masses went in the housing buying mode from 01 to around 06/07.
So, lets say the "Majority" of home owers were buying the top. And now the Majority of home owners who bought during that spree...are upside down.
But the coolaid that one is using the chart for, is showing us that there was no housing crash. In fact, according to that chart....people are up 200K in some areas on their homes. LOL.
So, don't worry people it's all a lie. There is no housing bust.
Oh buy the way, there are how many states on that list and how many states in this country?
Second, Texas is not on that chart as Home prices never really had the run up or run down.
Third, you have to measure Texas in Raw land and Ranch Land sales as well. There was a lot of Land Transactions where much of the smart money went into. Because land is far more valuable than a "HOUSE".
Hence, the land you build on, can cost as much if not more than the house you build.
DENNER: ur spot on and well put. I tend to be far more un-orthodox with my writting on ET.
The charts look good on face value. However, it is interesting that the Schiller Housing Index say's other wise. I too, could dig up numbers and charts. I rather have people do their own research.
But think outside the box....If you bought your house 20 years ago, you can still be in trouble. However, let me see...hummmm the housing run started when Mr. Greenspan cut rates in 2001. The masses went in the housing buying mode from 01 to around 06/07.
So, lets say the "Majority" of home owers were buying the top. And now the Majority of home owners who bought during that spree...are upside down.
But the coolaid that one is using the chart for, is showing us that there was no housing crash. In fact, according to that chart....people are up 200K in some areas on their homes. LOL.
So, don't worry people it's all a lie. There is no housing bust.
Oh buy the way, there are how many states on that list and how many states in this country?
Second, Texas is not on that chart as Home prices never really had the run up or run down.
Third, you have to measure Texas in Raw land and Ranch Land sales as well. There was a lot of Land Transactions where much of the smart money went into. Because land is far more valuable than a "HOUSE".
Hence, the land you build on, can cost as much if not more than the house you build.
Jem, good point.
"City after City on the east coast is imploding because of democrats and you want to play the red state blue state game?"
I think that game is over. We will not see much discourse on that until the first major City defaults on it's Muni's. IL is going to raise state tax, CA is cost cutting like crazy now, from Fleet Vehicals to Cell phones, to social programs and soon pensions.
DC is a shit hole and the mass of the popluation is poor. A small group that is "GOV" are doing well. But that will not last long as State and Feds are going to have to lay off more people.
I'm not sure I'm with Whitney when she says 100s of munis will default. But I do believe a key few will and that will start a panic. And in these areas where Munis are either in default or close to, what do you think will happen to home prices?
Time will only tell.
"City after City on the east coast is imploding because of democrats and you want to play the red state blue state game?"
I think that game is over. We will not see much discourse on that until the first major City defaults on it's Muni's. IL is going to raise state tax, CA is cost cutting like crazy now, from Fleet Vehicals to Cell phones, to social programs and soon pensions.
DC is a shit hole and the mass of the popluation is poor. A small group that is "GOV" are doing well. But that will not last long as State and Feds are going to have to lay off more people.
I'm not sure I'm with Whitney when she says 100s of munis will default. But I do believe a key few will and that will start a panic. And in these areas where Munis are either in default or close to, what do you think will happen to home prices?
Time will only tell.
The only good thing I can see coming out of it is employers will probably have to hire a full time person for health care compliance because it's gonna cost 1000's of dollars if they flub it up
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THE 1. I can only speak on the behalf of the Private Manufacture owners that are my clients. I do not know how the Public Traded Companies will deal with the Health Bill as I do not deal with them.
The majority of my clients in Manufacturing have plants both in the States and in Asia, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc. State side they have around 100 to 600 employees each, over all, give or take a few. This is the pulse that I am getting.
1. They are going to forgo the current Health Care Plans that most pay up to or close to 100% of, for their employees. They will drop the current plan and the take the Fed Plan. Thus, Insurance companies like Bluecross/shield, Humana, AFLAC are going to take a huge hit if this becomes the trend,
2. They will fire anyone who does not take the Fed plan, pay the fine for not providing insurance. This will save them more money than carrying a "Private Plan".
This is the chatter on the wire with my guys.
------------------------------------------
THE 1. I can only speak on the behalf of the Private Manufacture owners that are my clients. I do not know how the Public Traded Companies will deal with the Health Bill as I do not deal with them.
The majority of my clients in Manufacturing have plants both in the States and in Asia, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc. State side they have around 100 to 600 employees each, over all, give or take a few. This is the pulse that I am getting.
1. They are going to forgo the current Health Care Plans that most pay up to or close to 100% of, for their employees. They will drop the current plan and the take the Fed Plan. Thus, Insurance companies like Bluecross/shield, Humana, AFLAC are going to take a huge hit if this becomes the trend,
2. They will fire anyone who does not take the Fed plan, pay the fine for not providing insurance. This will save them more money than carrying a "Private Plan".
This is the chatter on the wire with my guys.