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Housing going down another 40%
- Thread starter midlifeguy
- Start date
Quote from Jayford:
Your numbers make sense except for the fact that houses went up WAY more than 50% in some of the bubble markets. I am also in Cal, and many areas saw 100%+. My neighbor's town house across the street went from $262k to $700k in seven years.
Also, you have to factor in over supply which is massive at this time, and the fact that we still have two more years of ARM's coming due.
It is true that many areas may be near the bottom, some never even declined such as most of Oregon. But many others are not even close to a low. San Diego definitely falls in this group, and will be off 40% from peak when all is said and done. Parts of Florida and Vegas have already done 50% plus.
Ok, my response to that is...since when were San Diego, or those parts of Florida, or Vegas ever a barometer of the general housing market? Would you say your neighbor's town house was typical of the general market at any time? If not, then can you really use it to try to predict the downside of the national market? Folks in from these areas think that the market revolves around them, and granted they are big population areas where the story is the most sensationalist, but they just aren't the general market and tend to amplify what the market does in both directions.
SM
Quote from ElCubano:
i knew we were in trouble when my next-door neighbor got a brand new benz, flew the entire family to alaska for a cruise and added some square footage to his house and a pool...this while just being laid off...:eek:
The fattest poor people and the dumbest with toys procured with financiamos when they cant even pay for their bowling ball on time. Only in America. Soon to be Amerika, Comrade.
Quote from Smart Money:
Ok, my response to that is...since when were San Diego, or those parts of Florida, or Vegas ever a barometer of the general housing market? Would you say your neighbor's town house was typical of the general market at any time? If not, then can you really use it to try to predict the downside of the national market? Folks in from these areas think that the market revolves around them, and granted they are big population areas where the story is the most sensationalist, but they just aren't the general market and tend to amplify what the market does in both directions.
SM
There is no "general market".
Housing exploded in some parts of the country and narely a whisper in others.
The effect is averaged and certainly impacts the entire economy regardless if one county or another came out unscathed.
I agree with the housing in certain areas. Currently, in the TEXAS are, levels are stable. They have become stagnet in San Antonio as 2008 price levels are now the same as 2007. However, there is a market for homes between 100 -200 and between 300 and 400. Everything above 400 has stoped. I have a land deal for 15.3 acres on contract and should close in 60 days. This is unimproved acreage @ 1.3 million. Was listed at 1.5 but we got it down to 1.3. It's in the Boerne Tx area, where land values are rising fast.
Austin is still strong and they are moving houses in the 300/400 range.
Houston is stable as is Dallas.
So, the RE is "Regional" for now. Things could change. I spoke with a friend in Scottsdale, he said not the prices are back to 2003 levels. He owns a mortgage company and say's he can't refi many because they have negitive or Zero equity in their homes.
So, I think RE is "Local" for now.
However, the economy is definitly fucked. Yet, cities with very few "BANKING/FINANCIAL CENTERS" will not be feel much of the pain of the coming layoffs in that sector.
Oil Prices and Jobs. These are the top two key issues. The rest means nothing to the SHEEOPLE.
We will have to stand by and see what happens the next two quarters.
Doom and Gloom may be a few years off.
Austin is still strong and they are moving houses in the 300/400 range.
Houston is stable as is Dallas.
So, the RE is "Regional" for now. Things could change. I spoke with a friend in Scottsdale, he said not the prices are back to 2003 levels. He owns a mortgage company and say's he can't refi many because they have negitive or Zero equity in their homes.
So, I think RE is "Local" for now.
However, the economy is definitly fucked. Yet, cities with very few "BANKING/FINANCIAL CENTERS" will not be feel much of the pain of the coming layoffs in that sector.
Oil Prices and Jobs. These are the top two key issues. The rest means nothing to the SHEEOPLE.
We will have to stand by and see what happens the next two quarters.
Doom and Gloom may be a few years off.
How about NYC? I always hear this "well, New York City doesnt follow the rest of the country, we are unique" talk.
I would expect a decent amount of layoffs and real estate to be affected just like anywhere else but it seems like everyone I talk to thinks New York is immune. Some of it is elitist and I'm sure some of it is true, NYC is pretty unique. But with a ton of financial jobs swinging in the wind, I have to feel like a storm is coming for NYC RE.
Thoughts?
I would expect a decent amount of layoffs and real estate to be affected just like anywhere else but it seems like everyone I talk to thinks New York is immune. Some of it is elitist and I'm sure some of it is true, NYC is pretty unique. But with a ton of financial jobs swinging in the wind, I have to feel like a storm is coming for NYC RE.
Thoughts?
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:
However, the economy is definitly fucked. Yet, cities with very few "BANKING/FINANCIAL CENTERS" will not be feel much of the pain of the coming layoffs in that sector.
Quote from midlifeguy:
Millions are going to lose their jobs here, banks aren't lending, etc etc...the housing market is finished.
I can see places like Florida, Vegas and California plunging over 50% while the rest of the Country drops around 40%. We are going to 3rd World wages and with the high cost of living, nobody is going to be able to afford houses at current levels.
In 10 months we will look back and say we should of bought up the bargain stocks and houses. This is america there will always be money to be made . We had 7 good years you must expect a few bad years .
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/14/new...rime.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008031705
From the article....
Q- How bad is the mortgage crisis going to get?
A- What started in subprime is likely to continue cascading into the markets and keep the economy down until 2010, economist Paul Krugman forecasts. Bottom line for homeowners: An average drop of 25%........
From the article....
Q- How bad is the mortgage crisis going to get?
A- What started in subprime is likely to continue cascading into the markets and keep the economy down until 2010, economist Paul Krugman forecasts. Bottom line for homeowners: An average drop of 25%........