Housing going down another 40%

Quote from $preader:

Good post.House prices have come back a lot already and there are some good deals out there.The problem is that every time you turn on the TV there's some waste-of-space reporter standing in front of some 'for sale' or 'foreclosed' sign scaring everyone off.Honestly it makes me sick,I mean what are they trying to do?drive the market down lower it seems!
More...

Funny you say that. In my mind's eye, I picture someone like the newspaper editor in the comicbook Spiderman saying, yelling, "PARKER! Go get me something on this subprime thing. Its selling newspapers. You know, crying housewives, and that kind of thing! I want dispair! And get me some coffee!"

This idea was confirmed when I saw a newsreport doing a story on "Pets left behind by the subprime crisis". I wish I was kidding, but I'm serious. They're really digging to come up with something new to say about it now.

SM
 
Quote from Smart Money:

Funny you say that. In my mind's eye, I picture someone like the newspaper editor in the comicbook Spiderman saying, yelling, "PARKER! Go get me something on this subprime thing. Its selling newspapers. You know, crying housewives, and that kind of thing! I want dispair! And get me some coffee!"

This idea was confirmed when I saw a newsreport doing a story on "Pets left behind by the subprime crisis". I wish I was kidding, but I'm serious. They're really digging to come up with something new to say about it now.

SM
More...

Were they blaming the banks for the left behind pets too?

All of the reports/articles that I've seen about this topic have been slanted in favor of the deadbeats. With that said, there is plenty of blame to go around so I fault the greedy mortgage brokers, banks, etc as well.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

Housing market doing very well where I live
More...

Well, nationally its in the shithole and getting worse. Doesn't matter if its OK where you live, as there are a number of smaller and/or non bubble markets that are fine.

Problem is, the AVERAGE home in America is over priced relative to the average income. Additionally, consumer debt (credit cards) as a percentage of national income have gone completely through the roof. People can no longer refi their homes for a cash out to pay off their CC debt. This is a nightmare that hasn't even figured in yet.
 
Quote from clacy:

Anyone know of a good website or two with realiable home valuations? Just curious how my house (or area) is doing.
More...

You can zillow it but I don't find them to be that reliable. They're not way off, but don't take it as gospel.

http://www.zillow.com/

I just went through this about 2 weeks ago. Not sure this is the most accurate way, but this was how I went about it.

1) Pull all homes for sale within 2 mile radius. Note all that are marked "bank owned - sold as is". Available through major paper (for us Chicago Tribune).

2) Pull all property transfers within 2 miles since 10/1/08. Available in our local paper.

3) Scan Zillow and compare their price versus the property transfer price (gives you some idea as to how much zillow is skewed)

4) Make a map of different areas of your neighborhood and go walking with the properties you found above marked. Take several days and walk the neighborhoods.

5) Keep an eye on any big addition or rehab projects going on in your immediate area. We are see quite a few of these, and not minor ones either. Personally I think people are investing in their current home rather then try and sell in this market.

6) Stay friends with your realtor. We happened to buy our home 5 years ago from the mother of a friend. She and her partner are good. We've brought them over twice since closing to ask their opinions on the improvements we've made, what we should do etc.
 
Quote from achilles28:

Fundamentally, houses could drop another 35-40% after fiat appreciation and oversupply factors are considered.

Total appreciation from market bottom (2001) to top (2006) was ~50%. We've dropped ~16% so far.
More...

Assuming a house cost 200k in 2001 and by 2006 it was 300k. a 16% drop makes the house today cost 252k. BUT...you forgot to add what it would've gained had there been no housing bubble. The historical 200 year average yearly gain of a house is about 3 or 4% per year i believe. So 200k times 7 years @ 3% and you get 245k @ 4% you get 263k.

Using that figure, I would say we are about where we should be.

What i am seeing in my area of town is that home sales (not new homes but old homes) in the last few weeks have really been picking up. (im in California) Obviously the numbers for what has been happening the last few weeks wont come in for months to you guys, but go out and check your areas. Newspaper predicted 10% drops in home values in my town this year. I think we could be at a bottom though and the 10% has already kicked in as soon as you all see 1Q numbers for the year. New homebuilders are still going to get hit hard and they wont sell for a long time because the refuse to bring their prices down of the places they built in 2005.

But i basically think we are at a bottom for housing.
 
Your numbers make sense except for the fact that houses went up WAY more than 50% in some of the bubble markets. I am also in Cal, and many areas saw 100%+. My neighbor's town house across the street went from $262k to $700k in seven years.

Also, you have to factor in over supply which is massive at this time, and the fact that we still have two more years of ARM's coming due.

It is true that many areas may be near the bottom, some never even declined such as most of Oregon. But many others are not even close to a low. San Diego definitely falls in this group, and will be off 40% from peak when all is said and done. Parts of Florida and Vegas have already done 50% plus.
 
Quote from Smart Money:

Funny you say that. In my mind's eye, I picture someone like the newspaper editor in the comicbook Spiderman saying, yelling, "PARKER! Go get me something on this subprime thing. Its selling newspapers. You know, crying housewives, and that kind of thing! I want dispair! And get me some coffee!"

This idea was confirmed when I saw a newsreport doing a story on "Pets left behind by the subprime crisis". I wish I was kidding, but I'm serious. They're really digging to come up with something new to say about it now.

SM
More...

Man,that is a new low in journalism!

I remember when the house prices were going to the moon - all they focussed on were the people who couldn't afford to buy.They'd have some working couple looking at over-priced apartments in some slum moaning that they'd been priced out of the market.It's like they have to zoom in on the negative angle all the time,only I really do think they've brainwashed people it's armageddon out there and everyone's too scared to buy unless it's at giveaway price.
 
Quote from Jayford:

Your numbers make sense except for the fact that houses went up WAY more than 50% in some of the bubble markets. I am also in Cal, and many areas saw 100%+. My neighbor's town house across the street went from $262k to $700k in seven years.

Also, you have to factor in over supply which is massive at this time, and the fact that we still have two more years of ARM's coming due.

It is true that many areas may be near the bottom, some never even declined such as most of Oregon. But many others are not even close to a low. San Diego definitely falls in this group, and will be off 40% from peak when all is said and done. Parts of Florida and Vegas have already done 50% plus.
More...

jay
where you living dude? we are traveling all over so cal with jr tennis and club baseball...maybe we can grab a cold one?
 
Quote from peilthetraveler:

..you forgot to add what it would've gained had there been no housing bubble. The historical 200 year average yearly gain of a house is about 3 or 4% per year i believe. So 200k times 7 years @ 3% and you get 245k @ 4% you get 263k.

Using that figure, I would say we are about where we should be.

But i basically think we are at a bottom for housing.
More...

Housing won't bottom until all CDO's are marked-to-market and losses fully realized. We are nowhere near a housing bottom.

Appreciation isn't a consideration because oversupply wiped out any fundamental gains during the run up. There are literally too many homes standing right now relative to demand. Also, fundamental prices stagnate during recessions - in which we are in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top