Housing Data

[Comanche]

Funny thing the human mind, how people take a piece of data and come to different conclusions.

If the housing #'s look weak, the market will respond to the downside, and vice versa.

In reality, isn't it more logical to think that lower #'s are more supportive as this will help to alleviate the total supply on the market instead of adding to the burgeoning supply inventory? Elementary supply and demand in my book.

Think about it and watch how the street reacts to the data.

 

[SiSePuede!]

Not really...that's like saying there is never anything bad ever. If the numbers are increasing how could you spin that negatively?

When is inventory really good sitting and rotting? Only 100 years after their creation do things usually start going up in value.

It's clear that no one cares about the housing data. Watch homebuilder stocks rally today.

 

[nonlinear5]

Quote from Comanche:

In reality, isn't it more logical to think that lower #'s are more supportive as this will help to alleviate the total supply on the market instead of adding to the burgeoning supply inventory? Elementary supply and demand in my book.

According to your logic, if I am, let's say, an automaker, it's in my best interest to produce as few cars as possible, because it would limit the supply and drive the prices up. In fact, I might not produce any cars at all, or even buy back my own cars to corner the market. Fortunately, it doesn't work that way.

 

[SiSePuede!]

Quote from nonlinear5:

According to your logic, if I am, let's say, an automaker, it's in my best interest to produce as few cars as possible, because it would limit the supply and drive the prices up. In fact, I might not produce any cars at all, or even buy back my own cars to corner the market. Fortunately, it doesn't work that way.

Your explanation was better than mine...too funny.

 

[Comanche]

Quote from nonlinear5:

According to your logic, if I am, let's say, an automaker, it's in my best interest to produce as few cars as possible, because it would limit the supply and drive the prices up. In fact, I might not produce any cars at all, or even buy back my own cars to corner the market. Fortunately, it doesn't work that way.

Your logic would be true IF we were concerned about the homebuilder. We are talking about the broad economy however, the one that has had a larger part of GDP tied to increasing home values and the mortgage equity withdrawals that have fueled a large part of consumer spending.

Increasing inventory+tighter lending standards=price depreciation.

 

[SiSePuede!]

Quote from Comanche:


Increasing inventory+tighter lending standards=price depreciation.

Exactly...when will prices come down? And the inventory isn't just in the new homes being built, it's in the existing homes too. You can't count houses with for sale signs as inventory, but there are a lot of them.

Much of the consumer spending has come from climbing housing prices. The opposite is happening...that's less money floating around to buy things.

 

[Mvic]

When CFC can rally from the low 30's to the low 40's while their properties entering foreclosure chart looks like this anything is possible. By the way the prices that they have been getting for the 1.5 billion in properties they have in foreclosure has been about 10-20% less than they are listed for at least the ones that I have checked on here in MA. Yes i am short CFC.

http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/

 

[SiSePuede!]

Quote from Mvic:

When CFC can rally from the low 30's to the low 40's while their properties entering foreclosure chart looks like this anything is possible. By the way the prices that they have been getting for the 1.5 billion in properties they have in foreclosure has been about 10-20% less than they are listed for at least the ones that I have checked on here in MA. Yes i am short CFC.

http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/

The buyout LIES(rumors) helped.

 

[Comanche]

Quote from SiSePuede!:

Exactly...when will prices come down? And the inventory isn't just in the new homes being built, it's in the existing homes too. You can't count houses with for sale signs as inventory, but there are a lot of them.

Much of the consumer spending has come from climbing housing prices. The opposite is happening...that's less money floating around to buy things.

BINGO!!!!! What you just said is the whole point of the post (adding inventory is bearish, not bullish).

 

[SiSePuede!]

Quote from Comanche:

BINGO!!!!! What you just said is the whole point of the post (adding inventory is bearish, not bullish).

Of course it's bearish. But when people are buying the inventory up it's bullish. If it's just being built and sitting there it's bearish. Clearly.