housing crash

Quote from EqtTrdr:

bye bye $HGX

bye bye all those shows on TV named

"Flip this House"

bye bye everyone who quit their job to get into flipping condos and buying homes they can't afford.....

woooooshhh
More...


yup....buh-bye! :p


in re, the other posts...

FOMC? what does that have to do with anything?

short-term interest rates have nothing to do with the skyrocketing on-market RE inventories.

10-year is about the same as it has been for years now...around 4-4.5%.

The 'boom' was caused by a total abandonment of credit-safety. I.e., accept any and all risks, no matter how insane.

And yes, housing -can- crash just like other markets.

Never before have such a high percentage of 'sales' been to speculators. They're already starting to bail; and price is set at the margin.

Second, you would be amazed at the number of home 'owners' who are right at the edge of keeping up their payments. Each twitch up in expenses (think winter heat bills +30%, RE taxes +30%) will be sending a HUGE number over the edge.

These spec and 'broke' properties flooding into the market this winter will send prices falling so fast it's going to make your head spin. See what you think in Feb-March... :D

The other interesting effect happening already is related to that miracle of financing, the HELOC....which has grown enormously over the past 24 months.

What do you think has been supporting retail sales in 2005 ? Sure hasn't been wages! :p ....which have been DOWN five years running now.

But those HELOC rates have been going apeshit...up from 3% to around 7% now.

...and credit-card min-payments doubling in a few weeks too?

yah mon....it is going to be a BLOODY retail season this winter.

buh-bye sheeple....buh-bye.... :p
 
Quote from d9d:

yup....buh-bye! :p


in re, the other posts...

FOMC? what does that have to do with anything?

short-term interest rates have nothing to do with the skyrocketing on-market RE inventories.

10-year is about the same as it has been for years now...around 4-4.5%.

The 'boom' was caused by a total abandonment of credit-safety. I.e., accept any and all risks, no matter how insane.

And yes, housing -can- crash just like other markets.

Never before have such a high percentage of 'sales' been to speculators. They're already starting to bail; and price is set at the margin.

Second, you would be amazed at the number of home 'owners' who are right at the edge of keeping up their payments. Each twitch up in expenses (think winter heat bills +30%, RE taxes +30%) will be sending a HUGE number over the edge.

These spec and 'broke' properties flooding into the market this winter will send prices falling so fast it's going to make your head spin. See what you think in Feb-March... :D

The other interesting effect happening already is related to that miracle of financing, the HELOC....which has grown enormously over the past 24 months.

What do you think has been supporting retail sales in 2005 ? Sure hasn't been wages! :p ....which have been DOWN five years running now.

But those HELOC rates have been going apeshit...up from 3% to around 7% now.

...and credit-card min-payments doubling in a few weeks too?

yah mon....it is going to be a BLOODY retail season this winter.

buh-bye sheeple....buh-bye.... :p
More...


I freakin hope so already....


If I have to hear my barber tell me one more time how he is going to be a billionare and he and everyone he knows is quitting their jobs because he owns 7 properties and going to sell them for double in 2 weeks and then buy 10 more + 5 preconstruction condos...


I swear....arrrghhhhh
 
Quote from d9d:


Second, you would be amazed at the number of home 'owners' who are right at the edge of keeping up their payments. Each twitch up in expenses (think winter heat bills +30%, RE taxes +30%) will be sending a HUGE number over the edge.
More...

Don't forget health care premiums and/or the lack of coverage that won't be there come 2006.

Deductibles are going up 50-100% plus increases in premiums.
 
I believe the american middle class has been CONNED to play russian roulette with the last thing they should be SPECULATING in - their own HOMES.

These BLOODY millionares should of gone to speculate on BLACKJACK at Las Vegas if they thought the stock game was over.

But the root of all this is a TAX BREAK on flipping properties passed in 1997 + the "EXOTIC MORTGAGE INDUSTRY"




Check this out, looks like there is a storm heading to Miami and it might be a Category 10 :eek: -

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/11952393.htm


Would anyone know where one can find a copy of the actual report ?

"In its report, titled <b>Mega Metro Bubbles</b>, Merrill Lynch economists Sheryl King"
 
Quote from Bruto Blukowski:

Don't forget health care premiums and/or the lack of coverage that won't be there come 2006.

Deductibles are going up 50-100% plus increases in premiums.
More...


probably right...

Im sorry for the ignorance but where did you get that info??


thanks :)
 
I noticed that the recent stuff on the radio is pitching the buying of out of state rentals as the cash flow is potentially there.

Nothing like being a long distance landlord. Oh the joy.

In the area of CA my mom lives in there has been an increase in units for sale from 80 in Dec 2004 to 462 in Aug 2005. Prices are so soft that reductions in the 20% range are occurring to move property.

Should be fun, glad I'm in cash.
 
Quote from Mvic:

http://www.nhc.org/chp/p2p/one_msa_display.php


Fully 28% of U.S. consumers "have no spare cash" and live paycheck to paycheck.

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp?guid={88C45361-24C8-40E3-A6B7-08E5E5EEB30D}

Anyone know if that 28% is historically high or in normal range?
More...

I have been like that for 56% of my life so on the average it would be half the normal rate if I was normal.

What happens if a homeowner can't make all his payments? First he/she will stop paying the credit cards, when all the dust settles, worst case is a garnish in most states. What if the wage garnish cuts into the ability to pay the HOLOC? Homeowner will get a lien on the property which can stay there until they die if they don't want to move. At that point they are home free with only a first mortgage payment. As long as they make the first mortgage payment everything is fine. I can't believe that all these overextended homeowners are going to be the cause of a serious housing crash. The most volatile markets are the very expensive real estate, you will be seeing news stories about people that are dumping their properties, it will be the expensive stuff, joe six pack can probably ride it out.
 
Quote from murty:

.... Analysts said "Dont worry about decline in the stock, if you are holding that for long term like 4-5 years". Now, real estate gurus are saying "Dont worry about house valuation if you are planning for long term like 30-40 years".

...
More...

When I worked for the CEO of the largest Mortgage Lender in the US a few years back the average hold time of the average SFH was something like 7 years. More recently this number has decreased by a nontrivial amount. By the way, being the smart fellow that he is he has been readjusting the portfolio risk structure of the company- public knowledge.

In general people are not living in their homes with the idea that they are going to ever pay off their mortgage and a house - whether you live in it or not - has become an investment vehicle, a note etc.

Was it Mark Cuban that said, a few years after he sold one of his internet properties and the tech market crashed "What were those people smoking ?"
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top