housing crash

[murray t turtle]

Quote from OldTrader:

I don't understand what it is about a strong stock that makes people want to short it.


This stock didn't even correct when the market went down! I'd revamp your strategy if it includes picking out one of the strongest stocks in one of the strongest groups, and shorting it near all time highs. This is a strategy that will take your head off.

OldTrader

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Shorting a strong stock/sector in a bull market maybe an ego unprofitable thing;
agree generaly its not part a good business plan.

Different deal on short a weak stock/historicaly weak sector ;
especially when its spent much time below major moving averages.
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Like the difference between unsecured debt;
and reasonable debt secured by certified appraised real estate.

And another concrete example,RaTboy88, you may negotiate 90% off unsecured hospital debt;
far more likely likey you could get 90% off a real estate ask price.

 

[Copernicus]

Quote from silk:

What would happen if mean home prices returned to where they were just 18 months ago? That would be a very small retracement of the last 8 years move.

The average family that bought a home in 2004 with a low downpayment would be insolvent. The average middle class household is wiped out on a 30k hit on their house.

Could the system handle this. Are we setting up for the worst depression ever? Or would we get through it ok?

first signs of the bubble in florida.
builder "close outs" and ads like these popping up..

$785000 - Gorgeous Direct Ocean View Desperate Must Sell before Closing (Hallandale - Miami)

 

[EqtTrdr]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...e=9&u=/ap/20050203/ap_on_bi_ge/mortgage_rates

I don't get it

 

[pepper_john]

Quote from Covertibility:

You noticed those low interest rates?

yes, the rates are low. But even at the current low rates, the mortgages + condo fee is still at least $2300 /month, which cannot be covered by rents, as the rents on 2 bed/2 bath is only 1200-1600 /month in some of the nicest area.

I know someone who bought a condo. He said he had to wait for 6 hours in a queue as there were so many buyers.

 

[jerry11901]

I live on Long Island and have nothing to worry about.
Playground for rich man

 

[sle]

Quote from QQQBALL:

Quote from onewaypockets:
66 percent probably is a typo. Should have been 660 percent. [/B]

thats compound appreciation of 1.67% annually? that wouldnt have covered inflation?

How did you get 1.67%? Even if you take continuous compounding, the appreciation is R=ln(66)/(2004-1890) = 3.67% (or something like it, don't have my calculator with me).

 

[Longhorns]

Quote from jerry11901:

I live on Long Island and have nothing to worry about.
Playground for rich man

Long Island sucks. Strip malls and traffic jams as far as the eye can see.
Also, I hate to burst your bubble "rich man" but as far as suburbs of New York go, outside of the Hamptons most of Long Island is a dump compared to Bergen and Westchester Counties.

 

[QQQBALL]

Quote from sle:

thats compound appreciation of 1.67% annually? that wouldnt have covered inflation?

How did you get 1.67%? Even if you take continuous compounding, the appreciation is R=ln(66)/(2004-1890) = 3.67% (or something like it, don't have my calculator with me). [/QUOTE]

PV = (-1)
FV = 6.6
n = 114
therefore i = 1.67 (%)

its not linear anyway, so im not sure it matters anyway.

 

[Copernicus]

Quote from jerry11901:

I live on Long Island and have nothing to worry about.
Playground for rich man

yeah then we get these rich men in FL driving two lanes at the time

 

[Copernicus]

Quote from Longhorns:

Long Island sucks. Strip malls and traffic jams as far as the eye can see.
Also, I hate to burst your bubble "rich man" but as far as suburbs of New York go, outside of the Hamptons most of Long Island is a dump compared to Bergen and Westchester Counties.

nassau and sufflok northshores are nice.