housing crash

Quote from onewaypockets:

Your post brought back memories. Back in the late 70's real estate was just screaming hot in California. I was in my early 20's and got hot on a house myself and started reading books. The bookstores had tons of new books...infamous authors like Albert Lowry (eventually went bankrupt), Robert Allen (eventually bankrupt, 500k IRS, and the president of his fan club went to the Fed pen.), William Nickerson, Jimmy Napier, etc...just too many to list. These people were GODS at the time and could attract thousands...standing room only...at their "free" seminars. I still have all their books...lol.

Fortunately I didn't act on any of their advice.

Too bad you didn't act on William Nickerson's advice. Chances are you would be worth one helluva lot more today than you are!:)

Nickerson managed to accumulate quite a nice fortune in his day by doing something really simple....buy rental properties, renovating them, and then holding them as rentals. I can only imagine how well you would have done had you begun this process back at the "peak" in the 1970's.

Oh, by the way, you might be interested to know that there is a bull market going on in Nickerson's books. Since you still have one, and presumably it's still fairly unused :D....chances are you could make some good money on the book itself. Some are selling for in excess of $50 from what I hear. Check the link:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=378&item=4515436077&rd=1&ssPageName=WDVW

OldTrader
 
Quote from SteveD:

In the late 70"s interest rates were something around 16% +/-.
Huge over building by home builders. Prime interest rate reached 21% in 1979??

No securitization of the mortgage market. No standardized appraisals. Spotty liquidity in the mortgage market.

Totally different situation now. Builders have taken an enormous inefficiencies out of the construction process and are now able to deliver a completed home for less than $100,000.

Builders, for the most part, do not "warehouse" land. We have very few unsold homes in this area. IF priced right, right location, etc etc.

You people treat housing like the "market". You hear people ask " What's the market going to do??" Well, are you talking the QQQQ's, Dow 30, gold, oil, Dell, Yahoo or just exactly what is this famous "Market"..

If everyone participating in this discussion owns 1000 shares of CSCO at it's high of $80 we are all under water. Not so in housing market across country.

My house goes up in value while your speculative home in Orange County drops 15%. Two totally different scenarios.

Speculators and single family landlords will probably suffer depending on location and particular situation and financial aspects.

Remember, stock purchases are made basically only two ways. All cash or 50% margin. Not so in real estate. Many, many methods and types of financial instruments available. A long term fixed rate, self-liquidating mortgage at 4.5% is good!!

I think some people are speaking without having any basic knowledge of the real estate market in the US. Some seem to not understand the basic principals of a mortgage.

Also, remember the Realtor's job is to get the highest price possible on your house. If the listing is placed too high and then is reduced down by 10% that is not necessarily a sign of weakness. It is because the Realtor excited the seller to get the listing and they tried the market but no takers.

The market makers on the stock market do this everyday, all day long.

SteveD

Steve, where do you live? I am asking because I think the location is the most important part of the topic under discussion.
 
i think the extent of what people did to their homes during this past decade (renovations), is incredible. around here, there are 5 or more home depots within 10 miles from my house. not only that but 2 or more lowes. i say "or more" because new stores keep popping up...
 
5 HD's w/in 10 miles radius. That is unbelievable.
Where do you live?


Quote from dividend:

i think the extent of what people did to their homes during this past decade (renovations), is incredible. around here, there are 5 or more home depots within 10 miles from my house. not only that but 2 or more lowes. i say "or more" because new stores keep popping up...
 
Quote from traderbal:

5 HD's w/in 10 miles radius. That is unbelievable.
Where do you live?

new jersey... btw this is no exaggeration.

-edit-
i just checked on the homedepot.com site
and counted 9 in a 20 mile radius.. hah.

...

around newark, there are 9 in only a 6 mile radius..
and these 9 do not even overlap the ones near me.

this is probably because of the pop density though.
 
I live in NJ too, NYC metro area.
Yes there is 5 w/in 10 mile radius. 2 in Manhattan...1 Seacaucus, 1 Long Island City, One in Jersey City..
 
This is a fascinating thread.

It is amazing to me how many buyers or investors are lured to buy at tops. However, these same folks, quite often, are not interested in RE when it tanks and there are bargains to be had. In fact the best time to buy is when nobody wants RE and it is a buyers market.

It is so much like stocks.

Of course, there are homeowners and RE investors and they are very different buyers. Different priorities.

This site is called Elite Trader. I would expect most investor types to look for bottoms and low value basing periods to get the best return on their money.

To KC, you can build a home to your sense of what quality is. I've done customs where the cost is no factor. By the way, Double 2X4 walls will give you an advantage over one 2X6 exterior wall.

You'll see very few 24" OC spacing of studs in todays building and none are allowed on exterior walls.

Romex is a wonderful product that allows a buyer to get upgraded wiring at a great cost saving. Conduit is very expensive, but nice 50 yrs down the road. Conduit is very rare in 100 yr old homes. Grounding is also rare in older homes.

Older homes are a romantic deal. Homewoners are shocked, as well as some contractors, at the cost of rehab.

A 2X4 has a nominal 3-1/2 width. 2X10s are not used much anymore because of cost and lack of span ability. Also, they shrink and cause floor squeaks. A 2X10 can shrink in depth, 1" quite often.
 
Oh boy KC, just read your whole post on older homes. Did you ever here of the catalogue home of about 100 yrs ago? Sears did a lot of them. One could buy the whole package real cheap and slap it up. So many looked alike because they were. Out of the same catalogues. Not as many left now. Didn't stand that long or look very good.

And building codes were almost non-existant. Many homeowners nailed those puppies up themselves. The rehab over the yrs was incredible.

You're right, a home depreciates. The one we tore down had about 50K work done to hold in up in the 60s cause it was condemned. Neighbor told me. And it was still a mess.

You're also right about a builder (today, anyday) putting the absolute min. in a new home for spec. But that is more than was required 100 yrs ago. You don't see the cheap houses built then because they fell apart and were torn down. What is left is the best or best cared for. They usually look good on the outside cause of the brick (fire prevention).

*) 2x6 studs instead of 2x4.
*) 16" or 12" joist spacing rather than 24"
*) TJI laminated joists rather than 2x10's
*) plywood subfloors rather than T&G OSB
*) plywood sheathing rather than wafer board
*) wood rather than vinyl siding
*) conduit rather than nomex/romex
*) etc

Question1: assuming it was speculative built, are most builders sure they can recoup extra ROI for the higher quality?

Question2: will the average buyer unknowingly pay almost as much for the house built with inferior materials as they would pay for the quality home?

Question3: if you were building a spec house that you planned to sell quickly as a business deal, would you use the same quality of materials as if you were building a house for yourself that you planned to stay in for many years?

Question3a: If building a house for yourself which you thought you might flip in 5 years, would you put as much quality into it as if you planned to keep it and hand it down to your children?

Question4: Considering that many small private homebuilders are better at construction than they are at business and cash-flow management (not referring to you personally) then even if they agreed to use quality materials in a non-spec custom-built house, how many hit cash-flow crunches which force them to cut corners which violate their contract with the buyer, but knowing that buyers often won't catch most short-cuts until it is too late?

I'll just answer these quick and the answers are general and there are exceptions in any era.

Old houses were built with 2X4s. Outside walls usually 2 layers of brick. Soft sand inside, and fired facing out. This is not up to code today. Best wall is double 2X4 so you have an air gap for the house to breath and be better insulated. Less mold too. Only problem is to solve fire blocking issue.

Floor joists or TJIs are the norm for most projects because of span and warranty issues. I still like Doug Fir 2X10s or 12s.

I hated OSB when it came out, but must admit it is better than plywood. I finally switched over. OSB is stronger in 2 directions and doesn't require the same cross bracing as ply. because of xtra structural integrity. But it is slippery and eats up the hands.

The fake wood decking is some super stuff. Much better than cedar or redwood.

For walls I like stucco or brick. I don't like pressboard. Too cheap, short life.

Pressure treated lumber on concrete is superior to the old wood sills.

Wiring has just gotten better and better. No conduit 100 yrs ago in Res. Bronx cable sometimes used, but no ground wire. Uncovered rag wire from 100 yrs ago was a real fire hazard, squirrels, heat, accidents, etc.

Question 1. No. Most buyers not savvy enough or care enough to pay the price.

2. Yes. Remember upgraded building codes though.

3. Heck NO. Not in this for charity.

3a. Not many homes handed down to kids in the mobile US. But I have seen some and they are excellent. Beautiful work that costs way too much today. Some craftsmen were much better then than now, especially tile and plaster/stucco. Look at our crews now.??? Pretty sad.

4. Spec homes have been built for a real long time. Many specs 100 yrs ago. Maybe most homes. I don't know.

The really nice old homes you see were built by wealthier people. They may even look modest today, but back then they were the upper middle class or highend.

I'm no fan of tract homes. But if that is what the avg. public can afford then??

I build customs and highend. Much more satisfying. Tract homes are just numbers and money machines. The intense building codes keeps builders pretty honest. Most of the glitz is on the surface in most homes. A middle class tract home is pretty good really. You'll get a solid 50 yrs before much goes wrong structurally. Fix up is easier now too, more access.
 
Quote from EqtTrdr:

Went to Barnes and Noble with the wife to grab some coffee and read some magazines...

They had a HUGE table full of all kinds of newly published Real Estate books, most of them titled something to the sound of "How to never work again and make billions by buying homes for barely anything using your existing mortgage and refi'ng"

There was an employee just standing by the desk being mobbed with questions from Mr and Ms Joe Blow about how many of those books they should get..

This can't be good.....lol:D

lol, too funny...
 
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