housing crash

Quote from SlyFlo:

...if anyone read today's news from DHI (Dr Horton), the largest home builder in the country, you will have read the following:

- Las Vegas market has had many cancellations from orders that were previously taken for newly built communities

- At the same time, the CEO referred to the ompany as the "Walmart of the housing industry"

Reminds me of when I lived in NYC and heard a friend saw a yellow porsche in the city with the license plate "bulrun" - nasdaq was close to 5000.

...matter of time.
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Who wants to buy a home from Walmart? Yikes!
 
Quote from jem:

I have said this before and I will say it again.

Southern CA is not so expensive. I was under that "wrong" impression when I sold my home in Carlsbad.

Do you know what you get in Northern VA for 700,000.

How about in the well known areas of Florida

How about around New York or Chicago

I think that one ingredient people leave out is that where there is desirable land - near centers of commerce or ski resorts of beaches you have tremendous demand.

And you frequently have two wage earners.

Now when you add one or two categories together with good schools and you have everybody and their mother wanting to move there. Hence two people are willing to work. At leaset One salary goes to the mortgage.

Had I known then what I know now I would not have sold my home in Carlsbad.

There were tons of this is a bubble believers including me. I think I was wrong. It was no bubble. It was the market. People do not need to buy stock. People need to buy houses in Southern California. Of course I could be wrong.
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Schools are not that great here in Carlsbad. It all bull that the goverment wants you to believe. My 13 year has no homework to speak off. The teachers are off all the time doing some kind of crap work. Tons of half days. Dumbed down work so the teachers can look good. In California it is all about the teachers union not the kids. It is a emperor's new clothes situation. People are slowing wising up to it.

A big problem with California is the budget mess. Arnold simply borrowed 15 billion bucks last year to spend this year. Now the state is facing another 8 billion dollar shortfall for this next year. Where is the money coming from???? Higher taxes that's where. Hell San Diego has a good chance of going bankrupt. Property taxes will have to be raised, along with sales tax and other fees the bloated goverment will dream up.

California has no desire to get its house in order. The state is ran by the state employees, weirdo's, Hollywood and union's.

I anticpate that California will go bankrupt. It is the only way out. That will put a dent in the housing market.

John
 
Quote from jficquette:

Schools are not that great here in Carlsbad. It all bull that the goverment wants you to believe.

John
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at least they speak english, at least i think they do. in vista a middle schooler was shot in an ambush. it would have been a drive-by, except the shooters were also middle schoolers (12-13 yo). i mean, really sad. you can live forever in solana beach, csbd, del mar and cardiff by the sea - basically west of I-5, or west of sepulveda/PCH if you are in the south bay area of los angeles; the people are generally pretty civilized. if you live in vista, san marcos or escondido, you're basically screwed. im sitting here at 9:30 pm as my hispanic neighbor's dog barks becuase another hipanic neighbor is building at night illegally on his 6-plex. the one guy has like 7 fricking junk landscaping trucks parked all over - in the morning, his illegal alien crews show up and load the trucks up, while dog barks away at 6:30 am (hey, i never miss the market open)..

i called the city about all the illegal parking on our narrow hillside street and they came out and painted white lines, so now all the illegally parked cars simply straddle the stupid lines - they refused to put up no parking signs, because "we would have to do it in similar situations all over Vista" - well, no shit! nobody parked in the street like this 20 years ago, but then the demographics were different.

i called the cops about the dog one night and they had 49 (!!!!!) calls ahead of me - i told them to forget it. ive got 2 more years before my oldest goes off to college.... i wouldnt buy anyplace affordable in san diego county, you are liable to have three hispanic families (or more) go together and buy the place - sorry for not being PC, but homes and neighborhoods werent meant to be inhabited by 15 people and three dogs per house...

so thats why carlsbad is so expensive. the weather is great here, but it cost $800,000 for a teardown in carlsbad. even with easy credit and buck getting whacked, thats still a fist-full of cash.
 
Quote from ratboy88:

geezzzzzzz, where do i start???

i traded one tech stock over and over and over again during the tech bubble...made a lot of money. didn't care if i went short or long....at the end of the day i was flat and had caught some pretty good moves..... did that for about 2 years. at the same time i argued with other traders and family/friends that it was not a good time to go long as far as investing was concerned. didn't really take a genius to make that call.

the link was very relevant to my question, i am puzzled by your response. there is a good chance that fnm could implode..... if that happens the author feels like it is the "canary in the mine." the author surmises that much of the debt that fnm holds is made up of mortgages obtained by fraudulent means, i.e. high appraisals values.

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=======
Ratboy88;
You my be right on that one canary or one coal mine ???;
real estate however is much more diversified than one coal mine.

And certified real estate appraisers tend to be much , much more
professional/truthful than CBS news,
or stock salesmen/analysts.
:cool:
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

=======
Ratboy88;
You my be right on that one canary or one coal mine ???;
real estate however is much more diversified than one coal mine.

And certified real estate appraisers tend to be much , much more
professional/truthful than CBS news,
or stock salesmen/analysts.
:cool:
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"RE appraisers more truthful the dan rather" LOL LOL LOL please don't set the bar so high.

bottom line there are crooks in every business. if an appraiser wants to keep playing ball with certain institutions then they will do what it takes. .........i guess we will see.
 
Quote from QQQBALL:

even with easy credit and buck getting whacked, thats still a fist-full of cash.
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Man...I'm so bad, you could put me up in the north pole with nothing but a pair of underwear and a laptop, and the next day I'd be down by your pool side with a million dollar smile and a fistful of pesos...
 
Quote from Covertibility:

Ya know notice that PPI and CPI both have falling since those bad reports a couple months back due in part to jumps in food prices. And those jumps in food prices were one time events as the hurricane season did damage in FL and CA had some flood weather.
Its clear sailing here on out.
But we'll let people that think for themselvces do just that.
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man, I swear u either a media pundit or govt. employee. Nothing but roses in ur forecasts. Numbers never manipulate, conned or dreamed up. U just sit there and take it all in, and then try rubbing it in everyone's face. I gonna start calling u "Gullability"

Is that ok with you Gullability?

Mr. Zen
 
Quote from sirpangolin:

Man...I'm so bad, you could put me up in the north pole with nothing but a pair of underwear and a laptop, and the next day I'd be down by your pool side with a million dollar smile and a fistful of pesos...
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come on down :D
 
I wonder how the young kids just getting out of college are going to be able to afford to live in CA.It's nice to know that you work hard for 4 years in college,and for most people,only to come out and realize that you can't afford to live anywhere decent in CA.
 
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