Housing Bubble 2.0?

Bubbles don't happen because house prices recover to preious highs or prices go up for six months or even a year. I'm not suggesting houses can't dip from here but that would not be a new bubble bursting because we are not in a housing bubble.

Inventory needs to be taken out and speculative fever needs to run rampant for an extended period of time and THEN prices tend to spurt ahead in last gasp fashion. Bubbles have a look and feel to them and we are not there.
 
Quote from Swan Noir:

Bubbles don't happen because house prices recover to preious highs or prices go up for six months or even a year. I'm not suggesting houses can't dip from here but that would not be a new bubble bursting because we are not in a housing bubble.

Inventory needs to be taken out and speculative fever needs to run rampant for an extended period of time and THEN prices tend to spurt ahead in last gasp fashion. Bubbles have a look and feel to them and we are not there.
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If the bubbles had a feel and look, many people could avoid it. They have a feel and look after they burst. Not before that.
 
That's rediculous. Everyone with half a brain knew we were in a bubble by 2005. The hard part was controlling the greed and getting out in time. My cousin was a "C" class executive at a major mortgage lender and resigned in 2006. As he told me them -- "We are now lending to people we know -- know for sure -- cannot pay us back.'

That was not a business he wanted to be in.

Quote from hajimow:

If the bubbles had a feel and look, many people could avoid it. They have a feel and look after they burst. Not before that.
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Quote from Banjo:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...slip-out-back-door-housing-stupid-money-jumps
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Speaking of ZH, they had an interesting chart the other day that showed median house price divided by real disposable income, basically saying that housing is now the most expensive it has ever been for people:

Median%20Home%20Price%20vs%20Real%20Disposable%20Income_0.jpg
 
Realtor here...IMHO current prices are being driven by extremely low inventory couples with attractive, near record-low interest rates.

Here in the Baltimore Metro area, buyers are frustrated over lack of choices and when something nice is located at a reasonable price, there are 10 offers on it. Frustrated buyers are using escalation clauses to compete to win the house.

Sellers are not raising the prices so much as buyer demand is. I have no idea if this is healthy or not long term. The uptick in median price is however slowly bringing underwater homeowners closer to break-even will they could sell if they needed to, which i guess is somewhat positive.
 
Quote from mirage505:

Realtor here...IMHO current prices are being driven by extremely low inventory couples with attractive, near record-low interest rates.

Here in the Baltimore Metro area, buyers are frustrated over lack of choices and when something nice is located at a reasonable price, there are 10 offers on it. Frustrated buyers are using escalation clauses to compete to win the house.

Sellers are not raising the prices so much as buyer demand is. I have no idea if this is healthy or not long term. The uptick in median price is however slowly bringing underwater homeowners closer to break-even will they could sell if they needed to, which i guess is somewhat positive.
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Lack of inventory because a lot of properties are being gobbled up by investment companies. Heck, when I sold my house in Perry Hall a year ago, I had two such offers. I can imagine what it's like now.

When the bottom falls out, those guys will dump their inventory as fast as they can. Then we'll be back where we were.
 
ok. one more factor. think about it this way.. b4 2008. every doorman and busboy could get a home loan. .we all know that..
then 2008 happened and all sub prime buyers were shut out

now some of them hard working. have finally saved up.. the 20% etc etc. for downpayment... so there is theoritically pent up demand..

but true.. overall something fishy going on.. all of a sudden from no demand to multiple offers on houses. getting sold off.. wow..what happened to all the shadow inventory?
 
I have been following the US housing market situation and it does look to me to be like another bubble. The question is who’s financing it? Are these really just investment companies? Is it record low interest rates? If the interest rates were, say, 6% would people all of a sudden stop buying? If it is because of interest rates, it doesn’t seem like a very healthy market.
 
Even healthy housing markets can grind to a halt with a sudden and significant rise in rates.
Quote from SuperCruz:

I have been following the US housing market situation and it does look to me to be like another bubble. The question is who’s financing it? Are these really just investment companies? Is it record low interest rates? If the interest rates were, say, 6% would people all of a sudden stop buying? If it is because of interest rates, it doesn’t seem like a very healthy market.
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