House Prices Surpass Housing-Bubble Peak on One Key Measure of Value

[Ninja Mobile Trader VPS]

Interesting read about the House Price-to-Rent Ratio
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2021/may/housing-prices-surpass-bubble-peak-measure-value

"The nationwide house price-to-rent ratio, a widely used measure of housing valuation that is analogous to the price-to-dividend ratio for the stock market, is at its highest level since at least 1975, as shown in the figure below. Rapid house price appreciation since last May, combined with a slowdown in rent growth, resulted in a surge in this ratio. By February 2021, the national house price-to-rent ratio had surpassed the previous peak reached in January 2006; in March 2021, the ratio was 1% higher than its level at the peak of the housing bubble. This suggests the average house now sells for quite a bit more than its “fair value,” as explained below."

 

[SunTrader]

Agree interesting read. Thanks.

 

[zdreg]

Per article if you don't accept the assumptions then you don't accept the conclusions.
If you have strong opinions about the direction of inflation, the $US, mortgage rates and future tax policy a strong case can be that US. houses are cheap.

Plus as the old saying goes all real estate is local.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Per article if you don't accept the assumptions then you don't accept the conclusions.
If you have strong opinions about the direction of inflation, the $US, mortgage rates and future tax policy a strong case can be that US. houses are cheap.

Plus as the old saying goes all real estate is local.

Yes, local market is important and the move to more work at home situations makes personal property more valuable overall. Someone with a home office in Canada can write off that portion of the overall home expenses off their income. Couples or families who spend more time in their home often want a bigger home; a small condo or apartment may not cut it anymore.

 

[zdreg]

Couples or families who spend more time in their home often want a bigger home; a small condo or apartment may not cut it anymore.

A divorce may cut it.

 

[DiceAreCast]

Interesting but lots of anchoring bias. Just because some visual representation of a ratio had reached similar levels than current figures does not mean anything. The human psyche wants to find anchor points where there are none. The entire historical frequency of occurrence of current levels has exactly been once. Not a whole lot to rely on.

Interesting read about the House Price-to-Rent Ratio
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2021/may/housing-prices-surpass-bubble-peak-measure-value

"The nationwide house price-to-rent ratio, a widely used measure of housing valuation that is analogous to the price-to-dividend ratio for the stock market, is at its highest level since at least 1975, as shown in the figure below. Rapid house price appreciation since last May, combined with a slowdown in rent growth, resulted in a surge in this ratio. By February 2021, the national house price-to-rent ratio had surpassed the previous peak reached in January 2006; in March 2021, the ratio was 1% higher than its level at the peak of the housing bubble. This suggests the average house now sells for quite a bit more than its “fair value,” as explained below."

View attachment 259607

 

[Ninja Mobile Trader VPS]

Interesting but lots of anchoring bias. Just because some visual representation of a ratio had reached similar levels than current figures does not mean anything. The human psyche wants to find anchor points where there are none. The entire historical frequency of occurrence of current levels has exactly been once. Not a whole lot to rely on.

Agreed, and for drawing parallels to the previous housing crash, the conclusion says "Most importantly, homeowners today have greater home equity and less mortgage debt, on average, than they did then. But the elevated level of the house price-to-rent ratio surely merits caution and further study."

 

[Saltynuts]

And they are going to go a LOT higher...

 

[Covertibility]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397485823046692867

One direction.

 

[murray t turtle]

Yes, local market is important and the move to more work at home situations makes personal property more valuable overall. Someone with a home office in Canada can write off that portion of the overall home expenses off their income. Couples or families who spend more time in their home often want a bigger home; a small condo or apartment may not cut it anymore.

%%
MOST home prices would look fine compared to rent.
Except for investors, again, most any home price would be good, but i used a wise REALTOR for almost all of my buys + sells................................................................................