House of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

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dbphoenix said:
While I appreciate the kind thoughts, your "biggest problem", again, is that you don't understand what you're looking at because you can't stop trading long enough to study it. This is a personal choice, and while I have tons of sympathy, I don't want to spend any more time in this journal on it.

All but a handful of "traders" on this site fail because they can't stop focusing on the money. And until they stop focusing on the money and begin to learn something about their business, they will continue to fail. That, however, is the case in many fields other than trading.
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Can we explore the idea that its not about not understanding what I'm looking at, but rather of what to do about it and when?

As an example, can we talk about this chart you just posted from the open yesterday? I had pretty much the exact same thing drawn. I'm not at home now, but I do have a copy of my 5 sec chart saved so I'm not going just from memory, and so from the open, we had a solid rejection of 74, at the level that you indicate as resistance. We did try down twice first, bouncing off 70 to go higher, but when we bounced off 74, we might have been able to get into a short just below this level.

So in real time, I'm seeing the rejection of 74. Of course it only took about 15 seconds to break higher, but initially, the rejection was there, no? Now perhaps you are watching the TQ and can see that there isn't much to this rejection, or perhaps you're seeing the "quality" of the rejection, or perhaps you're not wanting to short until we make a try to get below 67/68 level marked at support. Since I also know that you said in a few places where you mostly just trade RETs, you're waiting for a bounce from 74 and then a RET which never came, we just broke up higher.

But I guess I just ask this because if we just forget about what I may or may not have done with reference to trading, I wonder where the entry is. Not the SLA entry, because on this one minute chart, that first RET doesn't happen till about 95, and although that entry does work for a few points, it is much too late and much of the move has been missed.

I do fully understand about watching price in real time, seeing that right tick move. I make reference to a 5 sec chart because for this amateur, this 5 sec chart provides the so called "footprints" of that behavior (even in replay, I'm seeing that price doesn't move exactly the same way even with tick data, but the 5 sec chart seems appropriately good for seeing the footprints in my opinion).

Anyway, so given this chart that you post, can you elaborate on what you would do about the fact that there is the initial rejection off 74 to go lower, for only 2 points though, then the thrust higher, and then no looking back once we broke about 74. The SLA entry is not here, but there is obviously a trade to go long in here.
 
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By the end of the day, I'll admit I had quite a few lines on my NQ chart, but I had a great day "at the office." This is my "trading chart" - the chart I am actually making my decision on - and these were all drawn in real time - some might look a little "off" but that is because some were drawn when the chart was set to 1 minute bars and some when it is set as it is in the picture to 5 minute bars. But all were drawn in real time.
 

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k p said:
Can we explore the idea that its not about not understanding what I'm looking at, but rather of what to do about it and when?
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No offense, kp, but what's the difference? If you knew what you were looking at, you would then know what to do and when to do it. That is the purpose of your trading plan.
 
k p said:
Can we explore the idea that its not about not understanding what I'm looking at, but rather of what to do about it and when?
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No, not until you stop. The fact that you ask this question shows that you have no idea what I'm talking about.
 
fortydraws said:
By the end of the day, I'll admit I had quite a few lines on my NQ chart, but I had a great day "at the office." This is my "trading chart" - the chart I am actually making my decision on - and these were all drawn in real time - some might look a little "off" but that is because some were drawn when the chart was set to 1 minute bars and some when it is set as it is in the picture to 5 minute bars. But all were drawn in real time.
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Not unlike what I had, though mine were less busy.

One can cut these out and put them together, like a puzzle, which is after all a large part of what trading is:

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fortydraws said:
And before someone says that my friend has done well because of his access to me, I'll say right now I can take no credit for what he is doing or how well or poorly he does it.
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Hey 40D. I do fully respect you, but I wonder if I can offer an alternate opinion.

I think the fact that he had sat beside you made all the difference. Perhaps your friend is an individual who comes with a completely different mindset, so some of these things are a bit more natural for him. But I think his first experience of trading by watching you made all the difference in showing him how to act and when to act (my trades, and those of other struggling traders often show far too many entries... so watching you not do this of course would have been a huge blessing). Douglas in his book on trading psychology talks at length about a child's first experience with a dog. If that dog is mean and bites him, this child will develop the idea that all dogs are bad and be scared of every one, which will be difficult to undo. So by helping your friend to see that the market will not bite him and this is the proper way to approach it, it made his first experience positive.

The second point is that your friend fortunately started during a time when SLA has proven to work exceptionally well. I think back to the time when Db was in the chat sessions last February to April or so, and by the time some of us started trading during the spring and summer, those days proved to be incredibility choppy sometimes. It is true that we were taking each RET as SLA would require, hopefully stopping after 2 scratches as we should, waiting for price to go somewhere else, but the environment of this past week was a lucky break in that he started on a good week. If this first week for your friend had been during perhaps a summer session, he might not have done as well.

Please do understand that I am in no way trying criticize or belittle you or your methods or anything like this. I just want to offer my opinion that watching you as his first experience made all the difference, and the great timing of a hugely trending market for his first week got him off to a really good start.
 
k p said:
The second point is that your friend fortunately started during a time when SLA has proven to work exceptionally well.
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On weeks like this week with lots of huge and clean moves, a simple moving average crossover system would have done very well, too.
 
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