House of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[theapprentice]

why did price go up there? why did it stop going up there? why did it reverse? why was this reversal a dud and that last one was a success?

would the answers always be the same?
''why did price go up there?'' - because the demand was higher than the supply
why did it stop going up there? - because there were no more traders willing to buy it up and pay higher prices
''why did it reverse? - because supply was higher than demand
why was this reversal a dud and that last one was a success? - first reversal didn't have enough supply to overpower the demand and carry on going down, and the second reversal did.

the reason why I've been posting the pre-open ranges. If this is not done, then the day becomes a guessing game, a jump right in and hope for the best kind of day. And if this is really what one wants to do, then who is to say that he shouldn't? or can't? Though he'd probably enjoy his money a lot more by scooping it all into a big pile and setting it on fire.

Lots of people apparently do well without plotting the pre-open ranges, though. They just take their signals as they appear throughout the day. Effectively, 'jumping right in'? as you say? Maybe there's many ways to skin the cat. I don't know!

 

[dbphoenix]

would the answers always be the same?
''why did price go up there?'' - because the demand was higher than the supply

If it were that simple, then everyone would be rich. But there's more to it. Why, for example, did you go long on the ES at 2080 when it was only eight points away from a top?

If you're interested, I suggest you investigate the links in my last post.

If you're not . . .

 

[theapprentice]

you mean the top it made 8 points after my entry? (giving me 8 points profit at one point?)
Obviously it's only in hindsight one can call it a top.
Unless i've miss-understood you, isn't that like asking someone ''why did you go long seconds before the price fell??''. Obviously the person wouldnt have known that the price was about to fall, and would imply that the person asking never ever has a losing trade?

And if one did somehow know that there was 8 points until the'top' then it's still worth taking the long for 8 points profit!

Like I say, I've likely missunderstood the question. I'm fairly new to it all

Regarding that particular trade, though, it was based on a breakout method I was trading.

 

[fortydraws]

Like I say, I've likely missunderstood the question. I'm fairly new to it all

Those familiar with auction market theory (the AMT of the SLA/AMT file DbPhoenix links to in post #250 above), i.e. the small band of brothers (and sisters?) interested in the subject matter of this thread, saw that at the time of your long based on a "breakout" that the S&P 500/ES was trading above the upper limit of its long term trend channel. Those who employ the method in this thread would have been looking to liquidate longs and see evidence of failure at the highs in order to initiate shorts. So, while the exact top was not known at the time of your short, those who have studied the material in this journal knew that any long at that point was a low probability trade. I think DbPhoenix's question was meant to gently point out to you that since you have not familiarized yourself with the subject matter of this thread, the motives for your participation might be suspect, i.e. potential trolling. I hope that is not the case, and that if you are new, it might be worth your while to follow the links DbPhoenix posted in #250, and see what this is all about. I only started trading a few years ago, and it has benefited me greatly. Best to your trading!

 

[Ged]

And since it's Friday . . .

View attachment 148022

DB, thank you for the several NQ charts you posted today. Appreciate your willingness and substantial effort in helping others. Of your many threads and volumes of posts (in several trading forums), the ones I've read (about a thousand pages) have been very helpful. Happy New Year to you and yours.

 

[dbphoenix]

DB, thank you for the several NQ charts you posted today. Appreciate your willingness and substantial effort in helping others. Of your many threads and volumes of posts (in several trading forums), the ones I've read (about a thousand pages) have been very helpful. Happy New Year to you and yours.

I understand that you were/are working your way through the first four journals. It's so odd that some of you will read thousands of posts and the trolls won't even read 10 pages. But all that aside, I'm not in a position to tell anybody what they need, but surely it isn't necessary to read all that.

It's always been my position that once one has at least an elementary understanding of the basics (which was the motivating factor for the SLA/AMT pdf) that the rest comes from observation and experimentation. But then I'm looking at it from the viewpoint of somebody who not only went through it all but wrote a lot of it. In any event, please stop as soon as you can. There's so much repetition, and you may get sick of it before you get to the fun part.

Stay enthusiastic. There really is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

 

[dbphoenix]

Those familiar with auction market theory (the AMT of the SLA/AMT file DbPhoenix links to in post #250 above), i.e. the small band of brothers (and sisters?) interested in the subject matter of this thread, saw that at the time of your long based on a "breakout" that the S&P 500/ES was trading above the upper limit of its long term trend channel. Those who employ the method in this thread would have been looking to liquidate longs and see evidence of failure at the highs in order to initiate shorts. So, while the exact top was not known at the time of your short, those who have studied the material in this journal knew that any long at that point was a low probability trade. I think DbPhoenix's question was meant to gently point out to you that since you have not familiarized yourself with the subject matter of this thread, the motives for your participation might be suspect, i.e. potential trolling. I hope that is not the case, and that if you are new, it might be worth your while to follow the links DbPhoenix posted in #250, and see what this is all about. I only started trading a few years ago, and it has benefited me greatly. Best to your trading!

This is more or less what I was going to say, but I would modify it slightly to open it out from this thread. Even if one had never heard of this but had read Sperandeo he would have recognized the signs of trend change and trend reversal.

Regardless of terminology, it's all about traders and trader behavior. A failure to make a higher high is not a pattern; it's a behavior. And it practically hits you over the head with a warning.

But those who are interested can read the material. Those who aren't, well, thanks for stopping by.

 

[Ged]

I understand that you were/are working your way through the first four journals. It's so odd that some of you will read thousands of posts and the trolls won't even read 10 pages. But all that aside, I'm not in a position to tell anybody what they need, but surely it isn't necessary to read all that.

It's always been my position that once one has at least an elementary understanding of the basics (which was the motivating factor for the SLA/AMT pdf) that the rest comes from observation and experimentation. But then I'm looking at it from the viewpoint of somebody who not only went through it all but wrote a lot of it. In any event, please stop as soon as you can. There's so much repetition, and you may get sick of it before you get to the fun part.

Stay enthusiastic. There really is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

 

[Ged]

I did complete those threads some time ago. As I read them I created an indexed extract of what was to me the most interesting content. That is a handy reference (and only a little over 200 pages long). A lot of the charts were long gone, but still a lot of helpful information.

 

[eminiman414]

A failure to make a higher high is not a pattern; it's a behavior. And it practically hits you over the head with a warning.

This is becoming so much more evident as I observe price move as a line versus "bars." It's actually becoming an intregal part of what I am developing. Had I listened to you back in 2012 who knows where I'd be but at least it's making so much more sense now. Reviewing the wyckoff way thread was a godsend.