House of Cards ready to fall

Quote from billdick:

(I retired a dozen years ago to live with Brazilian in Sao Paulo
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* [/B]
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Hi Billdick.

How do you like living in SP?
I moved to Buenos Aires 3 years ago, when the property market was screaming "buy me" and then we just forgot to leave.

Although we still roam around the globe, more and more we are finding that the best life styles lie in Arg/Brazil.
Living in BA and wintering in Brazil is a perfect combination for us.
 
Does this look like the house of cards of consumer demand thats about to fall?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auBtO27tv2PY&refer=home

Or this:

SHOPPERTRACK: U.S. RETAIL SALES UP AT LEAST 23% Y/Y IN REMAINING SHOPPING DAYS OF THE SEASON
-12/22-23 Total U.S. Retail sales up 22.5% y/y to $16.5B
-Preliminary "Super Saturday" 12/24 Retail Sales are tracking up 62% y/y to $8.72B (Black Friday was $8.96B)


A friend said: longs need shorts to cover their positions to accelerate the ride up.
 
lol the same people said this today also. so just like all the black friday hype people talking out of both sides of there mouth. as i recall these same people hyped black friday then shut there mouth. consumer spending will tank in january




Monday December 25, 10:14 am ET
By Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Business Writer
Merchants Look to Post-Holiday Sales to Meet Goals After Last-Minute Shopping Falls Short


Bargain hunters and latecomers flocked to stores this weekend as the retail industry made its last big push for pre-Christmas sales with increased discounts and other come-ons.
But the late-buying binge was not enough to meet sales goals, and retailers are now turning to post-Christmas business to make this season a merry one, according to one report from a national research company.

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"These were big days, but they came up short in terms of traffic and sales," said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a research firm, referring to this past Friday and Saturday. ShopperTrak monitors total retail sales at more than 45,000 outlets
 
Quote from eagle488:

The rest of 2006 will be flat to down. Then January will come and the real sell off begins. I dont need to rehash the reasoning, you can go to www.safehaven.com and you will find a list of articles with a lot of technical facts/opinion.

The one thing I have not read yet in any blogs is the margin interest. I have looked through the NYSE website and I am under the belief that more margin is being used now then at any other time in history. It appears very similiar to the year 2000. Even the slightest fear will bring down the market now and it will be worse then May. You will see folks running to sell out of their positions because they are overleveraged.

The only thing holding it up now is the fact that people are clinging on to gains into the new year and will sell once January hits.

I am currently short Apple and going to research some obvious shorts right now. I see a lot of plays in puts that would be good as well.

I say the S&P500 and DJIA issues will fall about 10-12% on average. The Nasdaq issues will probably go anywhere from 20-30%. The S&P100 will fair well, but will probably still have a loss of about 6%.

I can only find a few stocks that would probably be good longs. Only a very few. The large cap value issues do appear to be VERY overbought as well and trading above their normal P/Es.
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Here we are one month later, no major selloff yet.
 
Quote from pismo10:

Here we are one month later, no major selloff yet.
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And the fool that started the thread is also gone, after a margin call on his short positions from December.
 
My oh my, eagle488 made a great call imo. Indices are chugging along pretty much horizontally since his call and some big household name growth stocks are off their highs and he didn't say he would be shorting either. Probably enjoying some sun down south with profits he took. :cool:
 
Quote from eagle488:

The rest of 2006 will be flat to down. Then January will come and the real sell off begins. I dont need to rehash the reasoning, you can go to www.safehaven.com and you will find a list of articles with a lot of technical facts/opinion.

The one thing I have not read yet in any blogs is the margin interest. I have looked through the NYSE website and I am under the belief that more margin is being used now then at any other time in history. It appears very similiar to the year 2000. Even the slightest fear will bring down the market now and it will be worse then May. You will see folks running to sell out of their positions because they are overleveraged.

The only thing holding it up now is the fact that people are clinging on to gains into the new year and will sell once January hits.

I am currently short Apple and going to research some obvious shorts right now. I see a lot of plays in puts that would be good as well.

I say the S&P500 and DJIA issues will fall about 10-12% on average. The Nasdaq issues will probably go anywhere from 20-30%. The S&P100 will fair well, but will probably still have a loss of about 6%.

I can only find a few stocks that would probably be good longs. Only a very few. The large cap value issues do appear to be VERY overbought as well and trading above their normal P/Es.
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safehaven.com, tends to be right in bear markets, but always wrong otherwise

it's the nature of a perma-bear

if you want to be taken seriously, dont quote perma bears or perma bulls
 
I am currently short Apple and going to research some obvious shorts right now. I see a lot of plays in puts that would be good as well.
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Oops should've checked the original msg again rather than relying on my memory on something I'd read a while back. Still a good call imo.
 
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