House of Cards ready to fall

Quote from eagle488:


I can only find a few stocks that would probably be good longs. Only a very few. The large cap value issues do appear to be VERY overbought as well and trading above their normal P/Es.

Ok and if the dollar depreciates by 10%, how would you feel about those same stocks if in the same period if they stayed flat. Would you be bullished, neutral or bearish on them?
 
Quote from Hydroblunt:

Ok and if the dollar depreciates by 10%, how would you feel about those same stocks if in the same period if they stayed flat. Would you be bullished, neutral or bearish on them?

Not that the question was directed to me, but if it is an S&P500 stock, it doesn't matter. I plot the graph of the SPX in Euros on Bloomberg, and it matches the European market. Basically, the rally we had after 11/24 was due to dollar going down but multinationals being priced in the world market. But it does confuse me...the same logic doesn't apply in Asia?
 
Quote from whitster:

dood. that's absurd.

prior to the 1929 crash, it was COMMON for bucketshops to offer 10:1 margin

i highly doubt that people are more leveraged (margined) now than they were then

do you have facts to back up your assertion about margin?

He said more margin, not higher leverage is being used. He is talking about $ amount, not %. What is the market cap of the market today vs back then ?
 
market cap is obviously more

but that's a silly metric, to use an absolute basis

a relevant measurement would be how much margin PER investor or as a percentage of assets

obviously, when a nation has far more PEOPLE, and far more INVESTMENTs and far more market capitalization, they are going to have more margin on an absolute basis

how that is even remotely relevant?

the point is that people are nowhere NEAR as highly leveraged now as they were in 1929
 
Quote from Bitstream:

i can open none of your charts, but maybe that's just me.

Should be OK. Generated on Linux box using convert image processing utility. Display OK with konqueror browser and other image viewing tools. My firefox is broken, so I can't try that at the moment and my Windows box is no more so I can't try IE.

If you are using IE try Firefox.
 
Quote from whitster:

market cap is obviously more

but that's a silly metric, to use an absolute basis

a relevant measurement would be how much margin PER investor or as a percentage of assets

obviously, when a nation has far more PEOPLE, and far more INVESTMENTs and far more market capitalization, they are going to have more margin on an absolute basis

how that is even remotely relevant?

the point is that people are nowhere NEAR as highly leveraged now as they were in 1929

Because 75 years ago, people were far less involved in the market compared to after the internet brought easy access. 10 :1 is nothing, when you TODAY have guys at prop firms now trading 100 to 200 to 1.
 
Most people buy on margin. It is the best way to leverage your buying power. I think the stock market is going to crash is really over doing it. You cannot compare the US stock exchanges with India and other emerging markets. If it was the Dax or FTSE, that is a different story.
 
volente, guys using 100 to 1 margin etc. at prop shops are a phenomenally tiny %age of people involved in the market

get real

they are barely even statistically significant
 
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