Hot Indian Market

Quote from opmtrader:

I am a fan of famed emerging market investor Jim Rogers. He claims that India will not be the prevailing country from the group of competing developing nations. He notes terrible beauracracy, poor infrastructure, and certain cultural factors as limits to future growth. Of course these are the typical challenges most developing countries face. His choice is mainland China.
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A while back Rogers was touting Africa as the next economic boom because of demographics. Of course AIDs and political tyranny nixed that. You don't hear much of that prediction anymore. Rogers just gets on his motorcycle a bikes off to the next international location for a new prediction and a new book.

To tout China as stable while calling a relatively open and democratic India unstable belies a Wall Street CEO's preference for dictators as somehow being good for businesses. Corporate CEOs don't believe in real entrepreneurship or in liberty- too disorganized and unpredictanle. Free trade for them is a subsidized wage arbitrage centered on a state supplied workforce- a riskless win: pocket the options and move on the the next offshoring project. These same clowns were doing business with Stalin (the Soviet Union was the 'China' of that time among the elites), building car factories and steel mills. Wonder how that investment worked out?

Might want to fade Rogers. His track record in predicting the future is not so good. His predictions tell us more about his preferences for how societies should be run more than anything else.
 
Quote from opmtrader:

easyguru,


From a trading perspective I am wondering what could signal and end to this run. Is there a possibility of a crash here in the near term? Is there anything pending which could spook the typical Indian investor or foreign investor? Is this run do primarily to Indian nationals catching the investing bug or foreign funds bidding up the stocks? I have quantitative means of determining the crash hazard level and can say from a cursory analysis that the Indian index is at risk. I am just wondering if there is a potential catalyst that could trigger a reversal. You have to have a catalyst. You just can't short something because it has gone up too much.

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The investment is combination of domestic investors, foreign investors, mutual funds.
Some of the significant factor which is leading to shift in investor behavior in India is
1 Interest rates: Interest rates were around 18% few years ago. Today they are down to 5% or lower.
2 Alternative investment options like real estate and rented properties are stagnating for many year.
3 More regulated and efficient stock market with lowering of transaction cost.
4 Unlike in US it is not possible to trade on margin easily for retail investors. Which is going to change from next month.
There are currently many bullish factors in the market with the advance being broad based unlike earlier bull market which was more focused on the information technology sector. This is a election year in India so govt has lowered many taxes yesterday.
Potential catalyst with probability:
India Pakistan war- low probability
political instability- low probability ( the current party likely to retain position. The party is pro business)
Scandals- medium probability.
US market correlation= high probability. If the market in US reverses the market will also have set back.
 
Puffy Gums - You are correct in calling Rogers out on his record. I have heard other instances of his fallability. The guy is definitely part entertainer. I do enjoy reading his opinions and hearing his predictions though as they definitely make you think. More importantly as a trader he makes you think how you can take advantage of changes in the world around you. (Hopefully those opportunities lead you to make ethical investments as you noted.)

easyguru - That was just the kind of information I was looking for. So you say there is an electronic trading boom underway in India and they are making margin available to the public next month? That sounds like adding fuel to the fire. Maybe that up trend will be a little more extended than anticipated with these factors in the mix.

Thank you both.
 
http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf
This is Goldman Sach's report on Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
I have read Jim Rogers book and many of the things which he talks about apply to India. But there has been lot of dramatic change which has happened in recent years especially in last five years on infrastructure level. His style of investment is more long term We are talking about trading and prospect for near term which are very different.
 
India, Afganistan and Pakistan are full of Al-Quaeeda terrorists, and at least two of the above countries are producing nuclear weapons of mass destruction.

In order to defend the civilized world from the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, it is our moral obligation to force such dangerous countries to give up their WMDs and to renounce terrorism (like Libya recently did). If they fail to do so peacefully, we must be prepared to take military action against the above countries (in fact we are already in Afganistan!) in order to make the world a safer place for our children.

Having said the above, we must recognize and be grateful for the support that the Pakistanis have given us in our objective to hunt down and kill off the Evil Afgan Taleban monsters. We should therefore perhaps supply the Pakistanis with more conventional weapons as a reward (such as F16s), so long as they obey our command to get rid of their weapons of mass destruction programme.

Once the above countries are free of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, then we can look more favorably upon their economies as a suitable investment environment e.g. soon, we should be in a great position to start developing the Iraqi oil industry, now that Iraq has been considerably cleansed of terrorists and now that Iraq's WMD programme has been stalled. If we are forced to militarily liberate India and Pakistan from their weapons of mass destruction programmes and Al-Quaeeda terrorists, then at least we will already be there to help their oppressed populations benefit from the likely post-war economic growth. We should ensure that our firms get preference in such post-war investment projects as a reward for helping to liberate the countries.

God Bless America and God Bless the Civilized Free World in the War against the Evil Doers.
 
Avalanche/TGregg,

As as you can see Candletrader seems to have made a post which is both inflammatory and racist. Clearly his post could easily encourage weak minded individuals and those of a violent streak to oppress in some way innocent arabs, indians, pakistanis etc


Elitetrader should not be used as a springboard for wicked individuals to spread their nasty politics, so would you kindly act; to do otherwise is completely immoral as this type of post helps to spread ignorance and intolerance and is in itself a kind of verbal terrorism.


 
Quote from peugeot205:

Avalanche/TGregg,

As as you can see Candletrader seems to have made a post which is both inflammatory and racist. Clearly his post could easily encourage weak minded individuals and those of a violent streak to oppress in some way innocent arabs, indians, pakistanis etc


Elitetrader should not be used as a springboard for wicked individuals to spread their nasty politics, so would you kindly act; to do otherwise is completely immoral as this type of post helps to spread ignorance and intolerance and is in itself a kind of verbal terrorism.
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Chill out peugeot! I was simply caricaturing neo-conservative US foreign policy (aka US imperialism). I actually think the Indians are doing a fine job, and was pretty impressed by the fact that the Bombay Sensex Index has recently reached an all-time high... I have nothing but respect for the intellectually-rich and hardworking Indian community, who in large part are responsible for fuelling the technology-based US economic growth over the last few years..
 
Quote from easyguru:

http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf
This is Goldman Sach's report on Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
I have read Jim Rogers book and many of the things which he talks about apply to India. But there has been lot of dramatic change which has happened in recent years especially in last five years on infrastructure level. His style of investment is more long term We are talking about trading and prospect for near term which are very different.
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Good report but WTF would Goldman ever release this report and so early on. I guess they weren't sure which of the nations could be pumped up first. China is the big bull market now, probably due for a nice little crash very soon.
 
My company is investing big bucks in plant and capital equipment in both India and China. I probably won't have a job a year from now . Will the last U.S. manufacturer to leave the country please turn out the lights.
 
there was an episode on West Wing (http://www.nbc.com/The_West_Wing/index.html) where President Jeb Bartlett went against White House Chief of Staff Leo McGary and called in Sir Lord Font LeRoy from the British Royal Family to broker a peace deal between the Pakistanies and Indians. He bought them off with the terms of exporting American high tech jobs to their shores in exchange for them putting in place internationally accepted nucler mitilary controls on their armed forces.

In the real world, Pakistan exploded their first and second nuclear (whether atomic, thermo-nuclear or otherwise) devices on their shores to announce to the world community their entrance into the arms race. India had done so previously, and had posed a greater than normal threat to the Pakistani(s), especially from their perspective. This retributive display set off alarms all across the globe in seats of power among the established nuclear powers.

Almost as suddenly as these events came up they virtually disappeared from the front, middle and rear pages of the world press.

Seems like Bollywood/Hollywood imitates life more than we feel comfortable in admitting.

Seems like that fictitious West Wing episode has either a parallel or is reporting loosely, what actually happened in reality...

The results are evident, in that more and more technology jobs are leaving the US shores. and to think identity theft poses a threat, imagine losing all those corporate business process engineering (BPE & BPR) corporate secrets...by shipping offshore all those technology jobs, contracts and programming operations....

the implications are far reaching....
 
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