Hong Kong Dollar About To Pop ?

[GRULSTMRNN]

I agree with you generally but fail to see the catalyst that drags everything into a deep recession. Don't get me wrong, I am extremely pessimistic about the wellbeing of the global economy. But with so much cheap money floating around it takes some bombastic catalyst to meaningfully push the needle south.

I do worry that the rest of world easy policies will drag the US into it as well..not sure the exact mechanism but there is respected (theoretical) research saying it is difficult to be an outlier in monetary policy. Kind of like equity markets, when things are good, names move idiosyncratically but when shit hits they go together

 

[blueraincap]

I agree with you generally but fail to see the catalyst that drags everything into a deep recession. Don't get me wrong, I am extremely pessimistic about the wellbeing of the global economy. But with so much cheap money floating around it takes some bombastic catalyst to meaningfully push the needle south.

I agree and don't know if the US will get dragged or even if how it works, but "feel" difficult such an outlier in monetary policy can hold too long. It doesn't need a deep recession to drag real rates down if for whatever reason inflation fails to get close to the 2 magic number or rest of world slowdown simply drags US inflation expectation way down...no idea nor view just saying it is possible or likely

 

[tiddlywinks]

Y'all might want to throw Lebanon in the mix of currencies to pay attention to.
This article fails to mention that the Lebanese Pound (LBP) is PEGGED to USD!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/lebanon-to-declare-state-of-economic-emergency.html

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

It can continue as is for a long time, the top 0.1% will simply continue hoarding cash, same as what Apple, Microsoft, Berkshire, and Amazon does. No incentive to invest. But that does not mean they sell out. They just keep on accumulating. It takes a revolution to turn the tide.

I agree and don't know if the US will get dragged or even if how it works, but "feel" difficult such an outlier in monetary policy can hold too long. It doesn't need a deep recession to drag real rates down if for whatever reason inflation fails to get close to the 2 magic number or rest of world slowdown simply drags US inflation expectation way down...no idea nor view just saying it is possible or likely

 

[blueraincap]

must be rather time-consuming to keep that look
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/...this-mistake-when-the-stock-market-tanks.html

 

[blueraincap]

do you have any IB historical equity price downloader in java that i can have? would like to see the sourcecodes