Honey, Lets Sell the Kids and Buy Gold

[countryBoy641]

21. Based on the book “bringing down the house”

OK.
All that stuff is relevant, first to investors, then different types of traders.
"Death and taxes", that's for sure.
But nothing else.
Whether you're doing TA or Fundies, its still a crapshoot.
Do your work, then pick the best odds you can find.
A lot of friction on this MB. I'm sorry it's that way.

I have a lot of reading to do these days.
But I put the book on my kindle.
Thanks
CB

 

[newwurldmn]

OK.
All that stuff is relevant, first to investors, then different types of traders.
"Death and taxes", that's for sure.
But nothing else.
Whether you're doing TA or Fundies, its still a crapshoot.
Do your work, then pick the best odds you can find.
A lot of friction on this MB. I'm sorry it's that way.

I have a lot of reading to do these days.
But I put the book on my kindle.
Thanks
CB

the book is about the MIT blackjack team. Think fast and the furious but with geeky nerds counting cards.

 

[nitrene]

Another 5% move in Silver. What's going on? Maybe the vaunted rate cuts are getting closer. I wonder what would happen if the FOMC cut rates in June.

 

[schizo]

I wonder what would happen if the FOMC cut rates in June.

Gold and other precious metals are supposed to be hedges against inflation, so I reckon if the FOMC cuts rates then gold and others will also follow suit and drop like bricks.

But we live in a strange time. There's a big disconnect and intermarket analysis doesn't work as it used to.

 

[Ed48]

Gold and other precious metals are supposed to be hedges against inflation, so I reckon if the FOMC cuts rates then gold and others will also follow suit and drop like bricks.

Doesn't necessarily follow. Gold doesn't pay an income so high rates are a negative drag. PMs may be going up in anticipation of rate cuts. But who knows.

 

[Cam12]

Gold and other precious metals are supposed to be hedges against inflation, so I reckon if the FOMC cuts rates then gold and others will also follow suit and drop like bricks.

But we live in a strange time. There's a big disconnect and intermarket analysis doesn't work as it used to.

An argument could also be made that precious metals would go up as the USDX drops from the rate cut

 

[countryBoy641]

Gold and other precious metals are supposed to be hedges against inflation, so I reckon if the FOMC cuts rates then gold and others will also follow suit and drop like bricks.

But we live in a strange time. There's a big disconnect and intermarket analysis doesn't work as it used to.

Mr. Schizo, I think we have moved well past the point of the FED jiggling interest rates for their self interest. The government chicanery is now at levels not imaginable just a few decades ago.

Honest government left the station when Pres. Harry Truman drove himself and his wife home in 1953. And he was the last POTUS without any pension. He had to get a job when he got home, Independence, MO.

Succeeding Truman was the very popular Gen Dwight Eisenhower. Both parties wanted him on their ticket, Ike chose the Republicans. He and Harry got along OK, but Harry was super "old school". So when word spread that IKE was going to bring his concubine / military driver (Kay Ballard??) from WWII with him, Harry had a fit. He told IKE that he (Harry) would ruin him politically if he did that. After that, decency fled the Capitol.

Foreign sovereigns now have the benefit of 75 years of Breton Woods nation building.
The disastrous effects of the explosion of the money supply by the FED has been exported to all these sovereigns outside our borders. Washington elites remain blameless, so far, with all their vote-buying schemes. But that may change.

Opposing the Washington elites is a growing alliance of disaffected (aka pis*ed off) countries called the BRICs. Their goal is to move away from trading goods denominated in U.S. Dollars. Vlad Putin is driving that bus. And he is one serious dude.

The U.S. Dollar has been the "Reserve Currency" since the shooting stopped in WWII.
I think it was Nikita Khrushchev who famously said
"The U.S. will buy the rope to hang themselves with".
And Vlad Putin has the helm as it happens.
The champion of the U.S. is the FED.
They only print paper money. How much do you want?
Vlad is the champion of the opposing side (BRICs)
He is sitting on the biggest store of Natural Resources on the planet, esp. energy.

As the influence of the BRICs rise, precious metals will also rise. And energy too.
That's the bottom line.
Or as they say down south "(Real) money talks, Bullshit walks."

 

[schizo]

The U.S. Dollar has been the "Reserve Currency" since the shooting stopped in WWII.
I think it was Nikita Khrushchev who famously said
"The U.S. will buy the rope to hang themselves with".
And Vlad Putin has the helm as it happens.

Yeah, yeah, I get your point. But you forget the fact that even with all the debt the US currently has, it is the BIGGEST net importer of the world. The below estimate is for 2022. If you add Food and, especially Oil, into that number, the difference would be greater. The bottom line is, without the US supporting the world, a lot of countries (especially China) wouldn't be enjoying the benefit they relish today. So quit bitching and buy our debt!!!

 

[schizo]

An argument could also be made that precious metals would go up as the USDX drops from the rate cut

That is how it's supposed to play out (at least in theory) but, as I said above, strange times we're live in.

But we live in a strange time. There's a big disconnect and intermarket analysis doesn't work as it used to.

 

[countryBoy641]

Yeah, yeah, I get your point. But you forget the fact that even with all the debt the US currently has, it is the BIGGEST net importer of the world. The below estimate is for 2022. If you add Food and, especially Oil, into that number, the difference would be greater. The bottom line is, without the US supporting the world, a lot of countries (especially China) wouldn't be enjoying the benefit they relish today. So quit bitching and buy our debt!!!

View attachment 341933

All right, all right.
I always keep some T-Bills at AMTD, now Schwab.

Oil and food are interesting topics.
Summer of 1941, FDR was blockading Japan's oil imports.
And then the Pearl Harbor attack happened.
Ooops.
The entire Japanese campaign in the South Pacific (Leyete Gulf, etc),
was designed to get oil.
The oil fields in Indonesia were developed by Royal Dutch Pete.
The Japanese never got the oil they needed.
So they wilted.

Germans were a little more innovative with energy.
They were producing oil from coal.
But where they stumbled was pushing out the Jewish population.
Food companies are huge by design, withstand the swings in commodities.
So there is only a handful of them, closely held.
I think what hurt the Germans the most was when Bunge left. (ticker: BG)
I think they moved to Brazil.
By 1945, there was mass starvation in Germany.
German civilians were eating wallpaper (a few carbs in the glue).

Losing a war sucks, more than anybody born in the U.S. can imagine.
I wish more Americans would think about that.
Because these Brics countries are definitely thinking about it.
They are getting ready, Take that to the bank.

When Pres. Biden seized the foreign reserve assets of Russia,
that was beyond provocative.
He's daring them to do something.
I avoid scatological words.
But ...
That was a douche bag move on Biden's part.