Holy sh*t!

Again, here is more evidence of Job Payroll numbers being released before 8:30 am ET. Reuters releases this report at 8:29 am ET on March 5th, 2004.

ZB's traded from 112^02 to 113^00 for the full minute at 8:29 am ET. Settle the day at 114^07 up +2^09 for the day!


U.S. Feb nonfarm payrolls rose 21,000
8:29 am - Reuters

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040305/table_u_s_feb_nonfarm_payrolls_rose_21_000_1.html

Reuters
U.S. Feb nonfarm payrolls rose 21,000
Friday March 5, 8:29 am ET


WASHINGTON, March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department
seasonally adjusted jobs data.
In 1,000s, Change Feb Jan (Prev) Dec (Prev)
in Nonfarm Payrolls 21 97 112 8 16
Jobless Rate (Pct) 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7
Earnings, Hours of Private, Non-Farm Production workers:
Feb Jan (Prev) Dec (Prev)
Avg Weekly Hours 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.5
Manufacturing Hours 41.0 40.9 40.9 40.6 40.6
Overtime Hours 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.6
Earnings/Hour (dlrs) 15.52 15.49 15.49 15.45 15.47
Pct change 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1
Non-Farm Month-On-Month Payroll Changes by Industry (1,000s):
Feb Jan (Prev) Dec (Prev)
Total Private unch 103 125 8 21
Goods-Producing -25 20 7 -18 -16
Construction -24 34 24 3 13
Manufacturing -3 -13 -11 -20 -27
Service-Providing 46 77 105 26 32
Trade/transp/utilities 8 76 101 -50 -43
Wholesale Trade unch 9 11 6 8
Retail 13 60 76 -46 -41
Transp/warehousing -5 7 15 -11 -10
Information 2 -13 -10 3 3
Financial activities 9 -3 2 -4 -5
Real estate/rental -1 -1 1 1 3
Professional/business 10 -10 -22 45 45
Temporary help svs 32 -13 -21 36 23
Leisure/hospitality -9 19 21 14 15
Government 21 -6 -13 unch -5
Aggregate Weekly Hours Indexes, Seasonally Adj. (1982=100)
Feb Jan Dec
Total Private (pct change) -0.1 0.6 -0.6
Manufacturing (pct change) 0.1 0.5 -0.5
Total Private (index) 98.9 99.0 98.4
Manufacturing (index) 94.2 94.1 93.6
Note--The indexes show total aggregate hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls by industry.
Pool of available workers
Seasonally adj in mlns
Feb Jan
12.916 13.044
Pct change
-1.0 -0.5
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY-Civilian Employment, Seasonally Adj.
(Monthly change in 1,000s):
Feb Jan
Workforce -392 -15
Employed -265 87
Unemployed -127 -101
JOB LEAVERS Feb Jan
Total 827 804
As Pct of
unemployed 10.0 9.6
FORECAST:
Reuters survey of U.S. economists forecast for Feb:
+125,000 for U.S. non-farm payrolls
5.6 pct jobless rate
+0.2 average hourly earnings
33.7 hours average workweek
The nonfarm payroll data is based on a survey of employers
and the jobless rate is based on a survey of households.
Click (USLD01) for full text of employment report.
 
all the major news orgs are owned/controlled/used by the government reuters included. I have no idea why all you guys think there can be no illegal activity.

its been going on forever and will continue to go on. There is nnothing you can do about it.

Just a thought
 
I hope the conspiracy-lovers out there understands the technical implications of trying to prove any early realease of the employment numbers ...
There has to be an independent and reliable observer who can guarantee that it received/accessed the information early. That involves syncronized clocks to Stratum 1 or Stratum 2 clock server.

I use Stratum 2 servers myself with the (free) program "Dimension 4" (which is autmatically sync'ed and minimized on my Win2k startup). Of course on Linux/Unix you can use better NTP software. It gives me an edge in trading over those who don't understand how important syncronized clocks are to proper trading system setups.

But back to topic: Do you guys understand how difficult it's going to be to prove something like that some article was actually published on exactly some specific time ? Clocks change all the time; sometimes clocks can get off sync by network or software glitches. Sometimes programs or persons change configurations or the clock itself.

There is no reliable clock audit trail on normally configured operating systems. Logs of article transfer/publishing time doesn't mean anything, because it can't be verified that the clock was correct at the time - by an independent and absolutely reliable observer. Go figure.

:D
 
Who cares...

So are you saying that everyone should pay $10,000 every month for the best datafeed, network platform, software, and location?

Or everyone should be offered the same opportunity?

Institutional traders pay the price for the, rather little, advantage over retial.
 
This "leaking the story early" stuff is irrelevant. Reuters likely posted the story a minute or two early to give their website time to refresh by 8:30. And they of course want to scoop the other news agencies in order to "add value" to their service, causing more people to choose Reuters. But nobody at the top is leaking numbers to help John Q. Public, because nobody at the top CARES about John Q. Public. John Q. Public is on his own. Politicians take care of themselves, not you. Numbers in Clinton's time were released days before an official announcement? Was it Clinton himself manually updating HTML content on that webpage? Or should the webmaster be fired? Clinton never ORDERED a screwup, I'd guess, just as I'm sure Bush never ordered anyone to release data early.

People complaining the data was released 2 minutes early are bitter because they were on coffee breaks and missed the big move. Tough. The government shouldn't supply the news sources with early info, because the "honor system" doesn't work. But if they didn't, it would be seen as unfair to force the people to use a specific news source to get their info instead of it being widely released at 8:30.

The problem is not early release of numbers, but insider trading BEFORE the early release.

There were reports of big trades coming in 6 minutes before the announcement, before Reuters leaked it. Which means that someone else in government was talking. I'd have to check the Clinton numbers to see if people were doing Insider Trading then as well -- once the data's released on the website, it's public and tradeable, even if there was no verbal announcement.

But I'm sure Bush whispered the numbers to his dad who told his buddy in Country X, who started accumulating large positions in small bits at a time -- a week early -- just as I'm sure Clinton would have (or did) do the same thing. I would have, and I'm pretty sure I'm AT LEAST as ethical as any politician out there...

And really, guys, this Democrat versus Republican thing is just a smokescreen to distract people from focusing on what's really going on in the world. Both parties of ultra-wealthy elites have taken part in the same stuff, Bush is just more blatant about it. But he definitely is stepping on a lot of toes. Clinton was diplomatic, anyway. A LOT of allies are pissed, that's a fact. You can't treat your friends like crap and not expect them to at least grumble about it after a while.

But any more political talk and they'll move this to chit chat. Politics have been done to death on these boards, but apparently nobody but the Canadians, the French (harrytrader) and EVERYONE BUT the Americans seems to know that ALL politicians are crooked. Americans seem to think they're voting for either God or the Devil, and the decision is clear-cut everytime.
 
Quote from EtfTrader:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040402/economy_jobs_1.html

The link above says it all.

Reuters wrote that article and was privy to that information prior to the 8:30EST report.

THEY ARE BUSTED.

No reporter could have analyzed and written that much information out in that amount of time.
More...
I'm just reading about this now and will continue reading through the posts, was effected in the currency cash market as well - i.e. our move in EUR/USD came before 8:30 too.

I will say this in reply to Etftrader's comment,

"No reporter could have analyzed and written that much information out in that amount of time."
___

Not so. I'm a (comedy) writer. That much info in the article could have been banged out in 60 seconds had the writer knew exactly what he/she wanted to say. Advanced Word processing technology could have got it to (Internet) press probably with a minute or two after that.

As to the exact per second timing of when the info is supposed to come out, I don't think there is any law that states the information MUST be made available EXACTLY at such and such a time.

I've concluded that all time stamping info annoucements is general, i.e they can be released prior to or after a set time and still fall within perfectly acceptable time release proximity.

No wrong doing here, guys. I've waited over 30 minutes for other important announcements that were scheduled to be released at 8:30AM ET.

The main thing here is, knowing about this wider time window of news announcements, and knowing about swings in the info/announcement actually reaching the masses, these factors need to be built into your trade structure already, prior to the actual news hitting the wires/what the news annoucements contain.

The info contained within the announcement is only fundamental and should only effect your trading direction/position(s) so much.

There is also TA and simple chart trading to consider as well.

For instance, by using such items, as well as certain dynamics of probability (and luck), my positions were already short EUR/USD and caught the full brunt of the 170 point EUR/USD spike down head on (in my favor this time).

I screwed up, though, in other ways, therefore did not gain as much profit as I could have when that (currency) move literally BLASTED through my TP into my favor within 1 to 5 seconds (see chart).

Here is a link for news that claims over 7,000 (news) sources/searchable database that MAY help tap into info in a timely manner. Be sure to use the Sort by: Relevance | Date feature.

Cheers!

Sam
 

Attachments

Quote from cable:

This "leaking the story early" stuff is irrelevant. ...

The problem is not early release of numbers, but insider trading BEFORE the early release.

There were reports of big trades coming in 6 minutes before the announcement, before Reuters leaked it. Which means that someone else in government was talking...

And really, guys, this Democrat versus Republican thing is just a smokescreen to distract people from focusing on what's really going on in the world...
More...

Agree 100%.

The tape doesn't lie. No need to look to invent conspiracies. The ES traded in a tight band from its Globex open at 4:30 PM ET the day before until 6 minutes before the release of the report. It never varied from a tick or two on either side of settlement.

And then six minutes before public release of the report it moved in the direction of the spike that occurred exactly at 8:30.

Politics aside, it's like the beginning of the decline in the markets in March 2000. There really isn't room for interpretation; that IS when the decline began.

I don't know what caused it but things definitely started climbing at 8:24. Somebody (or more than one somebody) judged that there was a better than 50:50 that the 8:30 movement would be up, and that was something they weren't willing to bet on for 8 hours prior, at least not with this kind of volume.
 
Quote from qazwsxedc:

You misunderstood. He'll write the COMMENTARY beforehand. Two pieces. One saying "number went up, everybody surprised, here's why", another saying "number went down, everybody surprised, here's why". Then when the number does come out he'll plug it in, send one article and delete the other.
More...
From a writer's view/exposure to the industry, the structure qazwsxedc mentions is a probability to be used this way.

gsr
 
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