Holy Grail $TSLA trade

G

guru

Probably my nicest trade recently, due to alpha not being structural but coming from proper timing. Bought a $TSLA back ratio spread for $0.15 credit a few days ago, sold it this morning for $14.00 ($1415 profit). I've got the right entry signals based on vol flows (not based on price predictions), but this was my first test of this type of timed entry, so there is some risk and potential need to exit/close with small loss (or negligible profit) when large profit doesn't materialize quickly enough (so need to time the exit as well). Now imagine scaling this up...

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guru said:
Probably my nicest trade recently, due to alpha not being structural but coming from proper timing. Bought a $TSLA back ratio spread for $0.15 credit a few days ago, sold it this morning for $14.00 ($1415 profit). I've got the right entry signals based on vol flows (not based on price predictions), but this was my first test of this type of timed entry, so there is some risk and potential need to exit/close with small loss (or negligible profit) when large profit doesn't materialize quickly enough (so need to time the exit as well). Now imagine scaling this up...

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Can't go wrong with TSLA
 
guru said:
Probably my nicest trade recently, due to alpha not being structural but coming from proper timing.
Bought a $TSLA back ratio spread for $0.15 credit a few days ago, sold it this morning for $14.00 ($1415 profit)

Now imagine scaling this up...
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That's a lotto ticket play. Unless you are able to do this same feat regularly, like every day. Only then it can be considered a Holy Grail.

In my opinion, there is only one Holy Grail skill in trading. And that is being able to trade the broad market index, S&P, every day.
If someone can trade the S&P every day....you have made it, "Now imagine scaling this up..." specially with options,

If someone can do this, they can clear twelve million easy in a year from the market,
 
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VicBee said:
F returns YTD -26.6%
TSLA returns YTD -15.6%

F 1 year returns +8.13%
TSLA 1 year returns +27.07%

Won't even go 2 or 3 years back it would be humiliating. But your graph looks good.
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Added weekly above, back a little over 2 years.

Mirroring each other, for the most part, is what I see.
 
MacBookProHo said:
That's a lotto ticket play. Unless you are able to do this same feat regularly, like every day. Only then it can be considered a Holy Grail.

In my opinion, there is only one Holy Grail skill in trading. And that is being able to trade the broad market index, S&P, every day.
If someone can trade the S&P every day....you have made it, "Now imagine scaling this up..." specially with options,

If someone can do this, they can clear twelve million easy in a year from the market,
More...


It may not be exactly a lotto when it’s free and I got it for credit. It had a good chance of making $15, but made $1400. There was some risk but more so if you don’t have an experience or feel for it.
I do trade broad market index all the time, just wanted to show an interesting trade here, not all my boring or proprietary trades.
The trade I’ve shown cannot be traded every day and that’s exactly how trading should work: you don’t jump into stuff until the right opportunity.
However, yes, it was somewhat of a low-risk lotto as I’m testing waters based on billions of options backtests that uncover high-probability trades, not just playing lottos on a whim.
 
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